By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

THE World Travel and Tourism Council's (WTTC) growth projections for the Bahamian tourism industry over the next decade are towards "the bottom" of the likely expansion range, the minister of tourism and aviation said yesterday, adding that this nation had "some ways to go" to reach iots potential.

Vincent Vanderpool-Wallace told Tribune Business that the WTTC report, which projected that the Bahamian tourism industry's 2012 GDP contribution growth rate would be 2.6 per cent per year over the decade to 2022, was "extrapolating" based purely on the existing on-ground reality.

This, the minister suggested, meant the WTTC calculations did not account for the likely impact Baha Mar's $2.6 billion project would have on expanding New Providence's room inventory by 2,200, nor the diversification initiatives to boost the Family Islands and develop niche markets, such and sports and religion.

"Our assumptions are that the rate of potential growth for the Bahamas is higher, because we have largely focused on Nassau/Paradise Island, which is a small proportion of the total, and we gave all these islands for development," Mr Vanderpool-Wallace told Tribune Business.

"When we begin to grow the Bahamas as part of the 'back to the island' initiative, and getting more islands into the mix, the potential for tourism development is greater, broadening and deepening the economy. As a tourism economy, we still have some ways to go.

"Certainly, we believe that what was projected in that [WTTC] report is the bottom rate of growth."

The World Travel & Tourism Council's (WTTC) 2012 annual report on the industry's contribution to the Bahamian economy projected that the sector will become ever-more important, steadily accounting for a greater share of this country's GDP and employment between now and 2012.

Noting that the travel and tourism industry's direct GDP contribution in 2011 was $1.408 billion or 18.5 per cent of total Bahamian economic output, the WTTC report said it was forecast to increase by 3.1 per cent in 2012.

The sector's direct GDP contribution growth rate was also forecast to rise by 2.6 per cent per annum between 2012-2022, hitting $1.872 billion or 18.9 per cent of GDP in the latter year.

Mr Vanderpool-Wallace said that despite the different methods employed by the WTTC, its short-term growth estimates for the Bahamian tourism industry were in line with his own ministry's.

The minister's position was also echoed in yesterday's Tribune Business by Bahamas Hotel Association (BHA) president, Stuart Bowe. Referring to the 1.883 million stopover projection, Mr Bowe told Tribune Business: "It is our hope that we will reach that milestone before 2022.

"With the opening of Baha Mar, continued commitments to customer service, a focus on delivering exceptional customer experiences, reaching our potential in the Family Islands and the strength of our public-private partnership, I'm confident that we will approach two million annual stopover visitors before 2022."

The $2.6 billion Baha Mar redevelopment at Cable Beach is projected to add some 2,200 rooms to New Providence's hotel inventory when it begins full operations in 2014. These rooms will be split between the 1,000 room casino hotel, 700 room convention hotel, 300 room lifestyle hotel and 200 room luxury hotel, with brand operators including the Hyatt, Rosewood and Morgans.

When it came to the Bahamian tourism industry's total GDP contribution, a measurement that also takes into account the spin-off and indirect impacts from this nation's number one sector, the WTTC report said this hit $3.514 billion in 2011 for a 46.2 per cent share.

The industry's total GDP contribution was forecast to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2012 to hit $3.616 billion or 46.3 per cent. Longer-term, this indicator is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent per annum over the next decade to hit $4.683 billion, or 47.3 per cent of GDP, by 2022.

As for employment, the WTTC report said tourism directly generated 43,500 Bahamian jobs, a figure equivalent to 25.8 per cent of the total workforce, in 2011. This figure is projected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2012 to hit 44,500 or 25.9 per cent of total employment.

"By 2022, travel and tourism will account for 52,000 jobs directly, an increase of 1.7 per cent per annum over the next 10 years," the WTTC added. "This includes employment by hotels, travel agents, airlines and other passenger transportation services (excluding commuter services). It also includes the activities of the restaurant and leisure industries directly supported by tourists."

The wider employment benefits from tourism in the Bahamas are also set to expand. The WTTC report added: "The total contribution of travel and tourism to employment (including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and induced income impacts) was 90,500 jobs in 2011, or 53.8 per cent of total employment.

"This is forecast to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2012 to 92,500 jobs or 54 per cent of total employment. By 2022, travel and tourism is forecast to support 111,000 jobs or 55.1 per cent of total employment, an increase of 1.8 per cent per annum over the period."