Tuesday, December 17, 2013
EDITOR, The Tribune.
The Prime Minister has asked for alternatives to VAT as he rightly reconsiders the July date for implementation of the new tax increase.
There is no doubt we must come up with an answer to our nation’s spiralling debt crisis. If The Bahamas cannot meet its debt payment obligations, and defaults, then the IMF could be forced to move in.
Raising taxes, by VAT or otherwise, is not the answer. It will increase the cost of doing business and the cost of living. To further increase costs and thereby inflation at this time would be to make the Bahamian economy less competitive and more expensive, squeezing budgets, profits and payrolls. There comes a tipping point where the amount of tax levied becomes a disincentive to work. At that point, increased taxes shrink the economy leading, ironically, to a decrease in revenue. We are at or near that point. This could lead to increased unemployment and an economic slowdown. Government will then feel compelled to step in and assist both through social services and through Keynesian stimulus. This will only widen the Debt to GDP ratio. VAT will fail. It will hurt our economy. Hurt the people and it will hurt the Treasury. It should be stopped. Government should clearly place tax increases off the table. No Government has ever led an economic recovery by increasing taxation. As Churchill once stated, you may as well stand in a bucket and try to lift yourself up by the handles. Luckily, there are alternatives to VAT.
Government needs to set out a multi-year economic plan to grow the economy, eliminate the deficit and start to pay down national debt. It should have the following components: 1. Boost economic growth by cutting red tape, lowering interest rates, cutting tax, re-examining lending criteria imposed on banks by the Central Bank, reducing the cost of electricity and liberalising the provision of essential services, 2. Boosting Government revenue by collecting back owed real estate tax or auctioning the properties of defaulters, selling Government assets such as shares in BTC, BEC, Government real estate and other assets, and, 3. Reduce the size of Government by 2.5 per cent of GDP per annum for two years for a total cut of 5 per cent in absolute terms. At the same time, GDP growth will further reduce Government’s size from a relative point of view. Assuming growth of 2.5 per cent per annum over a two-year period, Government’s overall share would reduce by 10 per cent, about what you need. When coupled with boosting revenues, you more than cover the deficit and begin debt repayments. The following sets out these ideas in greater detail.
Sell Balance of BTC: Government can move forward with the original plan of selling the balance of its stock in BTC to the Bahamian public. Its 49 per cent stake is worth some $200 million. This can be sold to Bahamians in stages over a few years raising some $30 million per annum.
Liberalise the Telecoms market and issue new licenses: Government should end BTC’s monopoly as planned and issue new licences. This will not only mean new licence fees for Government, it will mean new businesses from which Government can collect on-going revenue. Further, reducing the cost of telecoms will boost business growth meaning Government will see a general uplift on Government revenue as the economy expands. Our advice at the time (I was on the Board that privatised BTC) was that liberalisation would bring a 1 per cent boost in GDP.
Reduce the cost of power: the cost of electricity is perhaps the largest single contributing factor to the high cost of living and doing business in the Bahamas. Reducing the cost of electricity by some 50 per cent by liberalising the market and allowing for competition will make a huge difference to this country’s competitiveness, boosting economic growth. Again, this will raise Government revenue. There will also be the one-off windfall of any sale of BEC, which could be worth hundreds of millions. Government should press ahead with its plans to divide BEC in two, privatise the two companies and liberalise the power generation sector to allow for competition.
Reduce Taxes: Governments wrongly assume that increased taxes means increased revenue. But there comes a point when taxes become a disincentive to investment and work. Nigel Lawson, Chancellor in the UK in the 80s, demonstrated that reducing tax can actually increase government revenue because it spurs investment and job creation. Your smaller slice of the larger pie is bigger than the big slice of the smaller pie.
Real Property Tax: hundreds of millions are owed in back real property tax. Government recently offered an amnesty and collected a small portion. Now, use the powers in the act to auction the properties of those in default. This could raise tens of millions a year for several years running. It would also put a great deal of property into the hands of Bahamians (thereby fulfilling another of the Prime Minister’s objectives). This will create construction jobs and boost the economy.
Tax web shops: It is outrageous that legal businesses that play by the rules are now to be further taxed while illegal businesses that pay no tax are allowed to operate in the open. It is further outrageous that Government has laid out harsh penalties to the private sector if it does not comply with VAT while letting the web shops break the law.
Cut Government Spending by 2?% of GDP per annum for two years: Government spends way too much money and employs too many people. It is wrong and unfair to assume that taxpayers will simply pay more and more without a plan to reduce the burden of the state. Government needs to be realistic and should look to cut expenditure. Education and Health should be exempt from cuts. All other Ministries and departments should have to come up with them.
Cut red tape: there is too much red tape standing in the way of investment. It takes too long to get through Investments Board, to get building permits, to get licenses. Every delay is an investment delayed. This means jobs delayed and ultimately Government revenue delayed. The more businesses are working, the more investment underway, then the more jobs created, the more money being spent, the more tax being paid and also the less burden on the state. The Investments Board should set itself an annual investment target each year and be out looking for that money. Also, it tends to focus on large investments with high barriers to clear to get started while smaller applications that are easier to get started and tend to collect dust. Get lots of smaller things going. It spreads money around more.
Cut Interest Rates: Interest rates on B$s have to be higher than on US$ to help maintain our reserves of foreign currency and to maintain the one to one link with the US$. But do they really need to be effectively 100 per cent higher? This is a massive burden on the back of anyone who needs to finance their business or on the back of homeownership in this nation. The Government should establish a Committee to examine the rate quarterly and adjust it to something more appropriate. This should be done in the open. I think somewhere up to a 2 per cent reduction today would be both welcome and workable. The Committee should monitor economic activity more robustly and adjust rates, as needed, both down and up. A lower rate will boost investment, generate jobs and thereby boost Government revenue.
Look at lending criteria: During the Sub Prime crisis the Government rightly moved to tighten lending criteria to maintain confidence at a very uncertain time. What was appropriate to those economic circumstances may not be right today. Today, many Bahamians simply cannot get loans even if they have the equity because the criteria are so stringent that nobody meets them. Meanwhile, banks pile up hundreds of millions in unused B$. There is so much money on the sidelines in this country it’s not funny. Loosen it up. Let it flow. You can always clamp down if it gets too hot. We need better fiscal management of the economy.
Privatise all Government businesses. Sell off Bahamasair, ZNS, Water & Sewerage, Bank of the Bahamas, the Post Office, etc.
Stop worrying about foreign second home buyers, they really are not buying up the Bahamas. It’s high interest rates and tight lending criteria that stop Bahamians from ascending the property ladder. Foreigners aren’t taking over Marathon or Prince Charles Drive. In fact, we need more. Go out and market to the world’s elite, bring them here, be a centre for globalisation. Let them spend their money in our islands. Let them fall in love with us and be our champions. There are hundreds of millions in this.
What the Bahamas needs is a fiscal plan that looks at our economy in the whole and seeks to reduce debt by curbing public expenditure, freeing up the economy to grow, reducing the cost of doing business and of living and seeks one time windfalls from the sale of Government assets as it transfers ownership to private hands. This is a future economic plan that could work. What we do not need is higher taxes.
GARTH BUCKNER
Nassau,
December 5, 2013.
Comments
concernedcitizen says...
ALL MAKES PERFECT SENSE ,however vat wiil be 200 to 300 more empolyees on the govt payroll that are basically unemployable in the private sector ,thus giving whichever party hires them hundreds if not thousands of votes Also lots of accountants will get big contracts ,think how many big time accountants are involved in politics ..If the governments just put a freeze on public service hiring for ten years we would be OK ..Truth be told we make more unempolyable children and young adults then any GDP growth can absorb ,its the story of our region ,,when single mother of 5 for 3 different daddies is the norm and 1 in 4 people work for the public service the result is predictable .higher taxes ,borrowing ,crime and poverty ,,
Posted 18 December 2013, 3:55 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
While letting the dollar devalue may seem scary. We are paying a price of keeping it on par with the US. It depends on how much the dollar devalues versus the increase of VAT for example. A lower B dollar would make it cheaper for tourists to visit as they get more bang for their buck and also give local producers and manufactures an advantage or level field versus imported products and make it easier to possibly export helping to achieve the much sought after desire to diversify the economy.
Posted 18 December 2013, 7:49 p.m. Suggest removal
john33xyz says...
You have got to be kidding. If you want a lower dollar - MOVE to Jamaica. You will be happy there.
Sure selling local products abroad will become easier because you are selling for less - silly!!!!!! You can do the same thing now. Just lower your selling price by 30% or whatever. The same result.
You think if you sell $100 worth of good for 100 NBD (New-Bahamian Dollars) [which will be worth 75cents] - that you will get $100 dollars easier?
Yes, you will get B$100 - but when you go to buy something brought from USA (and maybe you haven't read any labels on anything but 99.5% of everything comes from abroad esp the US) - you will ONLY be able to buy $75 worth of those items.
AGAIN, if you want a devalued currency - MOVE to a devalued currency country - don't screw up this country.
Posted 18 December 2013, 10:52 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
And you think the B dollar has not been devaluing over the past 5-10 years especially? It is pegged to the US dollar which is devaluing all the time due to the massive amounts of printing they are doing. The US dollar today is only worth about 27 cents of what it was when its current monetary system was put into place. The only thing that has not been changing is the B dollars relationship to the US dollar. Canadian dollars are on par with the US dollars now. Not because of an increase in their worth but, a devaluation of the US dollar. That is one reason imported things like fuel are getting more expensive on the world stage we are losing our value in comparison. And a 5% devaluation for example is allot better than a 8-15% increase from new taxes. And you missed the entire point about local products becoming cheaper versus imported thus helping to encourage local business. Why do you think China keeps their currency artificially low? So they can produce and especially export stuff.
Posted 19 December 2013, 1 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
While letting the dollar devalue may seem scary. We are paying a price for keeping it on par with the US. It depends on how much the dollar devalues versus the increase of VAT for example. A lower B dollar would make it cheaper for tourists to visit as they get more bang for their buck, chill the desire to import so much and also give local producers and manufactures an advantage or level field versus imported products and make it easier to possibly export helping to achieve the much sought after desire to diversify the economy.
Posted 18 December 2013, 7:50 p.m. Suggest removal
Honestman says...
Devaluing the Bahamian Dollar would be the beginning of the end for The Bahamas.
Posted 19 December 2013, 12:01 p.m. Suggest removal
Thinker says...
Yet do you believe an increase of up to 20% (just the start of this new tax regime) will make sense? Obama has been printing money like water flowing.. What do you think is happening right now? Do you think keeping us on this debt ride is smart? There are choices here.
Posted 20 December 2013, 10:06 a.m. Suggest removal
john33xyz says...
Yes, there are choices. But the Law in the Bahamas is not Pro-Choice. Abortion is illegal. So women are FORCED to bear children that they cannot afford to feed, and who grow up to search for jobs that don't exist. I won't even get into what they have to do to support their children. Hey, nobody wants to talk about that.
But, heck, go ahead and devalue the dollar. Within 5 years our parliament building will be burned down and our new capitol city will be in Port au Prince.
Posted 21 December 2013, 7:58 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
Actually a devalued dollar will make the Bahamas less attractive to illegal immigrants who want to export their dollars the Haiti. Also less likely they will setup shop here to trade labour for dollars. There are some benefits and most people think the whole idea is not up for discussion. You really don't understand how the monetary system works. Lets say our central bank with the government did what the USA is doing right now but, we are paying for their devaluation without any benefit decided to debase our currency by 5% over the next 3-5 years by printing more money. #1 The government could pay their bills. #2 When currency is created in this way it is given to banks and enters the money supply via loans. So #3 credit gets cheaper stimulating the economy. #4 Imported items get more expensive driving consumption of Bahamian made items. #5 less drain on our reserves. #6 more people get employed. I personally hate the worlds monetary system it is a system of debt that cant ever be repaid but, I believe this not VAT will get us out of the mess we are in quicker and for a longer term.
Posted 21 December 2013, 10:05 p.m. Suggest removal
Honestman says...
Garth Buckner's alternatives to VAT will find favour with most educated and business savvy Bahamians. Unfortunately, the PLP is not interested in this sector of society. There are of course more votes to be had from peddling false hope to the poorly educated, downtrodden masses who would sell their future for a free tee shirt. This government is letting ALL Bahamians down by wasting precious tax revenue on creating jobs in the Public Sector that don't exist, lavish spending by politicians, holding pointless referendums, allowing huge overdrafts to friends of the party and failing to collect real property taxes from some of the wealthiest people in The Bahamas. So government's answer? Yep, just force the public to bail them out with 15% VAT levy and keep on with the same old, same old until they are voted out. This conversation on tax reform should have commenced a year ago when all options should have been put on the table and thoroughly debated. It is still not too late to arrive at an alternative solution to VAT but the PM needs to listen carefully to those who are experienced in business and economics. Egos need to be set aside in this matter. The consequences of getting it wrong could be very grave indeed.
Posted 19 December 2013, 12:30 p.m. Suggest removal
asiseeit says...
The government will never listen to or do any of Mr. Buckners points as they would not be able to "buy" their votes any longer. How would the political class of the country survive? Get it strait people the political class of this country, yellow, red, or any other colour, is in it for themselves, not the country.
Posted 19 December 2013, 10:01 p.m. Suggest removal
asiseeit says...
I would vote for Mr. Buckner for Pm before ANY of the jokers out there now.
Posted 19 December 2013, 10:03 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
Actually a devalued dollar will make the Bahamas less attractive to illegal immigrants who want to export their dollars the Haiti. Also less likely they will setup shop here to trade labour for dollars. There are some benefits and most people think the whole idea is not up for discussion. You really don't understand how the monetary system works. Lets say our central bank with the government did what the USA is doing right now but, we are paying for their devaluation without any benefit decided to debase our currency by 5% over the next 3-5 years by printing more money. #1 The government could pay their bills. #2 When currency is created in this way it is given to banks and enters the money supply via loans. So #3 credit gets cheaper stimulating the economy. #4 Imported items get more expensive driving consumption of Bahamian made items. #5 less drain on our reserves. #6 more people get employed. I personally hate the worlds monetary system it is a system of debt that cant ever be repaid but, I believe this not VAT will get us out of the mess we are in quicker and for a longer term and the rich get hit with the same % as the poor there is no escaping currency devaluation actually even worse they might have money sitting in the bank. With VAT you also get decreased spending power but both local and foreign and it will hit you all at once and a drag on the economy and you can bet you bottom dollar the wealthy will find a way around this.
Posted 21 December 2013, 10:32 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
Better to start doing this now very very slowly and in controlled fashion balanced with taxes and economic growth because it will happen one day with or without VAT. Look at Barbados even with VAT they wouldn't stop spending and have borrowed so much foreign money no one will lend them any anymore they are laying off so many people and facing a currency devaluation. The market will correct itself and the longer you push it off and the bigger bubble you make the more painful it will be. VAT will make the bubble only bigger unless there is a major shift in the Bahamas economy like finding oil for example.
Posted 21 December 2013, 10:50 p.m. Suggest removal
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