By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

An ex-Chamber chairman believes consumer and business confidence are at their “lowest levels” since he returned to the Bahamas 35 years ago, and expressed concern this nation may leave it too late to change course.

Robert Myers, now a principal with the Organisation for Responsible Governance (ORG), a newly-formed civil society organisation, said the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) concerns about the Bahamas’ near-term economic future were “spot on”.

He warned that unless Bahamians shook off their “apathy”, and came together to push through reforms that will alter the country’s present trajectory, it will soon have “fallen on our ass”.

The IMF painted an extremely bleak picture of the Bahamas’ medium term economic prospects in its latest assessment, released last Friday.

It suggested the Bahamas’ ‘new norm’ is a low-growth economy, plagued by “double digit” unemployment and structural impediments to improving competitiveness and job creation.

Describing the IMF’s language as “pretty strong”, Mr Myers nevertheless agreed that its conclusions and analysis on the Bahamian economy were accurate.

“I think their analysis is spot on,” he told Tribune Business. “Their recommendations are spot on, and validate what we’ve been saying in ORG, the Chamber and the Coalition for Responsible Taxation.

“People are deciding not to look at the bigger picture, and are not doing enough about it. If we’re not careful, it’s going to be too little, too late.

“The apathy in the private sector is not surprising. Everyone is concerned about the situation, but the apathy is problematic. It really is.”

Mr Myers urged all Bahamians “to demand higher standards and greater accountability” in governance, adding: “It’s no good doing it when we’ve fallen on our ass.

“It’ll be a sad day when that happens. We’ve got to start being proactive. I think there is hope for a recovery, but only if people start pulling together.

“That has to start with the Government, and we have to get rid of the apathy in the private sector and citizenry. We collectively, as a nation, need to start paying attention to what is going on around us. If we don’t, we’re going to find ourselves on our ass, and that’s not an easy place to come back from.”

Mr Myers warned that the required collaboration between the Government, private sector and civil society could not be achieved if politicians resorted to their traditional tendencies of victimisation and defensiveness, whenever they faced pressures for meaningful reform.

“If the political parties, the politicians and the Government choose to be defensive and victimise those trying to help, that’s where we will end up; on our ass,” he reiterated.

“Most self-respecting people will not abide by that kind of behaviour. They’ll either shut up or leave, or both, and that’s a crying shame.

“The only chance we’ll have is if we work together, put our political differences aside, and focus on how we’re going to be fiscally responsible and fiscally prudent, how to change the outlook of the private sector, and increasing consumer and business confidence,” Mr Myers continued.

“Those two indicators are at very low levels, if not all-time lows - at least in the 35 years I’ve been back and in the workforce.”

That grim assessment is backed by the latest IMF outlook, which could find no prospects for the Bahamas to break out of its ‘low growth trap’ in the near to medium term.

It could only identify “downside risks” facing the Bahamas, and referred to a “sizeable output gap” to emphasise how this nation continues to perform below its economic growth potential.

The Fund also pointed out that the Bahamas’ economic growth potential has fallen by 50 per cent since the turn of the century.

“Staff estimates point to potential growth between 1 and 1.5 per cent over the medium-term, down from close to 3 per cent at the start of the century,” the IMF’s executive board said.

“This outlook is subject to mainly downside risks, calling for continued fiscal consolidation to rebuild fiscal and external policy buffers and boosting investor confidence, as well as a decisive shift towards implementation of structural reforms to improve competitiveness, reduce unemployment and raise potential growth.”

The 50 per cent reduction, in percentage terms, in the Bahamas’ economic growth potential over the past 16 years shows how this country is now paying the price for its failure to implement much-needed structural reforms.

While the IMF’s message has changed little from recent assessments, its latest missive emphasises just how much work the Bahamas has to do in multiple areas to revive its economy.

“Economic growth is estimated to have stalled in 2015, as a modest increase in air tourism arrivals was not sufficient to offset a contraction in domestic demand and weak exports of goods,” the IMF said.

“Private consumption and investment were weighed down by headwinds from fiscal consolidation, as well as an end to construction and uncertainty over the opening of the Baha Mar mega resort.”

The Fund’s GDP growth estimates have now been brought into line with the Government’s own, and reflect the 1.7 per cent contraction in 2015, as well as the 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent estimates for modest expansion in 2016 and 2017.