Debt loaded Cable Bahamas, which is now defacto owned and controlled by a select group of PLP muck-a-mucks, is seeking to retire a lot of its borrowings from the proceeds raised from this public offering, which will leave Cable Bahamas in full control of Aliv. The many investors from the public who will be conned into buying the Bahamas Government's 51.75% stake in Aliv will be left holding shares in what will undoubtedly become a worthless empty bag at the end of the day.

Persons are dumping their shares in Cable Bahamas like flies on a pile of dung. But at least they were warned that Cable would hit this point before it regains profitability. Shareholders in BoB did not get no such warning. Well at least the Punch did drop off some alarms but many didn't believe the Punch and when they took heed it was too late. But now the prediction is that BoB will see profit by June and no later than August, but despite the bargain price, persons are hesitant to buy BoB shares if only to flip them. It will be interesting to see how the war shapes up between BTC and Aliv. While BTC has a mass of a infrastructure and over sized staff to maintain, Aliv came into the market right fitting itself and streamlined. It used an aggressive marketing strategy to capture 25% of the cell phone market (its own figures) and now the question will now be answered : Can both BTC and ALIV survive in such a small tight fisted market. Just seeing what is happening in the Web Shop business may be an indication of what will happen. The web shops are canibaiising each other and some are going forces under the same management to starve off competition. Aliv's biggest mistake seems to be its stand alone retail stores. They are difficult to manage and expensive to operate. Especially as a speciality store. Should they not be combined and branded with Cable's rev's stores to add more products and services and share the cost.

John, excellent analysis.

I would like to add that Cable Bahamas lost -$16.6 million last year and has long term debt of $474 million (that almost half a billion dollars). At the same time Cable's cash balances have dropped rapidly from $63 million to $34 million at the end of last year (information source: Cable Bahamas web site, https://www.cablebahamas.com/media/file…).

With such a rapid drop in cash balances I wouldn't be surprised if they have no cash left as they move into the Q1 2017 taking into account the capital intensive roll out of cell towers. We shall see soon enough.

The capital raise is targeted at institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds and high net worth private clients.

John, I think your comparison to BoB is useful but while Cable Bahamas has been mismanaged through aggressive expansion into highly competitive commoditized markets (Netflex, internet, cable, wireless etc) the problems of BoB point more towards financial irregularities which appear to have been covered up because no forensic audit has been performed at BoB.

Personally I wouldn't put a penny into this capital raise. Like BoB I believe they will be forced to stop preference share dividends due to cash flow issues. Share dividends have already been cancelled.

The other problem is the opaque and byzantine relationship with the government owning majority shares in the cell license but not parent, so how does that work? Essentially it appears to be a company within a company, so who will issue the new debt? Who's financials will they show in the prospectus? If debt is issued will the government retain 51% of the voting rights of the cell license? Why would you buy debt and leave government in control? Why is the government involved in this in the first place? With 4 credit downgrades in the last 4 years and massive amounts of money needed to fix the dump and hurricane repairs doesn't the government have anything better to do other than meddling in the affairs of a private company?

I don't think this will end well.

http://tribune242.com/users/photos/2017…

Unlike BoB despite having a 51% stake in Aliv, the government is not supposed to have the ability to meddle in affairs of the company. Same as with BTC. But as we know in the Bahamas, rules are made to be broken. But anyone wishing to invest in the company through its bond offering should note the high interest rate being offered and use that as an indicator that the investment is risky and the road ahead is a rocky one. There is even suspicion over why a contract was signed with BPl to manage BEC. Some say the company will switch to pre-pay or pay as you go service, while others believe that the amount of power a household can consume at any given time will be restricted to control the carbon footprint. But yet solar power is also being restricted.

Let me tell you a fairy tale. None of this is true. I just made this story up. There was a Canadian guy who was a telephone employee of a Canadian province. He found an easier way to make money. He put up dishes, "intercepted" a cable signal and sold it to the remote towns and villages. Made some money. He looks to spread further afield and find some suckers.

Creates a company on the stock exchange. Names it after a famous man's sartorial product. With this as bona fides, he approaches a small Caribbean country, and offers his expertise to wire the country with cable connectivity. Of course he reneges to completely wire the country but nobody gives a damn. With the government's blessing and financing, it becomes a going concern. Change of government. Names local people to the board to hush tings up. There really een no really big money in operating in a small Caribbean country. Have to find a way to fleece the country and get money out in American dollars. He delists and takes private the holding company -- with OPM (other peoples money) of course. Guess from where.

Now that there is no SEC oversight, let the games begin. Its a story of how to get a half a billion dollars out. But you can't get the money directly from this small Caribbean country. You need to convert their dollars to a hard currency. The plan is brilliant.

You buy some really small companies who offer the same sort of services in USA. You pay dick-all for them and obscure the beneficial ownership. You valuate them into the stratosphere, beyond the junk valuation that they really are. Then you do some playing acting. You make a public bid for these companies to "expand your reach" and "go global" beyond the borders of the small Caribbean county. You overpay several hundred million bucks for these small American entities. And you saddle the original company, in the Caribbean country with the debt. It is brilliant. You have bought two cheap companies for next to zilch. You put some lipstick on the pig. Sold them for inflated values to another company that you control in the Caribbean. And you have profited several hundreds of millions of dollars. Slick. Wish I thought of it.

I made this story up.

And we all know who was the Minister of Finance, who was the Governor of The Central Bank, and who were the key Bahamian directors of Cable Bahamas, at the time Cable Bahamas obtained exchange control permission to convert the proceeds of mega millions of dollars of new debt and new equity denominated in Bahamian dollars into U.S. dollars to buy a couple of newly established U.S. companies from the Canadian founder of Cable Bahamas for grossly inflated prices. This currency conversion scam ultimately left Cable Bahamas saddled with mega millions of debt denominated in Bahamian dollars and worthless investments in a couple of U.S. companies. Through this currency conversion scam, the Canadian founder of Cable Bahamas was effectively allowed to cash out his Bahamian dollar equity stake in Cable Bahamas for U.S. dollars. Of course the Canadian founder of Cable Bahamas rewarded certain key players in the Bahamas government and at Cable Bahamas for allowing the fraudulent series of "cashing-out transactions" by signing over to them his controlling shareholding in Cable Bahamas for zero consideration. This is one of the many scandals a Royal Commission of Enquiry should look into after voters give the Crooked Christie-led corrupt PLP government the boot at the ballot box in the next general election.

He didn't live long though, but his cronies did. He owned a Harley Davidson dealership back in Canada. He was on a scissor lift taking him to the top of the building and fell 20 feet. Everyone was wondering why the owner was even in the scissor lift, and if he had help in exiting the scissor lift without the building being under him. This happened immediately after he got his money out. Tings dat make you go hmmmm.

I do not know which criminal gang is worst to our "tingsy" opportunistic people ...... cell phones companies or numbers houses????????? ............. Maybe the two are in cahoots to sell each other's wares ............. In any case, they are robbing our people blind and giving back little (we still do not know whatever happened to the BTC2%) ........ CB/Aliv is another social demon

wasn't this also the made up story with BTC as well. They told the government it was next to valueless put pressure on the government to sell, bought it for half a pack of peanuts, less than the cash it had in the bank on on hand almost, then turned around and flipped BTC in a multi-billion dollar sale. But whilst they have Bahamians distracted and fighting over colours (red, green yellow blue black white) they are busy raping the country, stealing our assets and saddening the country with debt. Then our leaders bring in foreign consultants to guide them and, seemingly, the foreign consultants are a part of the plot. They get money from the government, then more under the table