By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Super Value’s owner says he is opposed to joining the WTO and will never change his mind even if studies determine “it’s the greatest thing for The Bahamas”.

Rupert Roberts told Tribune Business he fears that full World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership “doesn’t fit” the Bahamian economy, especially given its minimal physical goods exports, and that it will result in “a free for all” overwhelming both local businesses and consumers.

He warned that the government will face “a big, big push back” from Bahamian voters if it pushed forward with the WTO accession process against their wishes and, while arguing that a referendum is not necessary, suggested it conduct “a comprehensive survey” of public opinion before proceeding.

“I’m not sold on WTO,” Mr Roberts told this newspaper. “I oppose it. I’m afraid that with WTO we’re going to have to reduce duties, and if we reduce duties to 15 percent we will have to raise VAT to 25 percent, and that creates problems for us with consumer dissatisfaction. We would have to face that.

“I feel that no matter what they [the government] say, no matter what they promise, no matter what they negotiate, that we are going to have free movement of labour. All the banks in the world will be coming in, all the supermarkets in the world will want to come in.

“I think it will be a free for all, and not fair to Bahamians and not work for Bahamians. Yes, I oppose it, and I think there’s members of the chamber that oppose it.”

Mr Roberts’ position is significant since he is the first major Bahamian businessman to come out so strongly against the government’s policy decision to push forward and complete an 18-year WTO accession process - the longest ever in the organisation’s history.

The timing of his remarks is also interesting given that a government delegation, headed by Brent Symonette, minister of financial services, trade and industry and immigration, and Zhivargo Laing, the chief WTO negotiator, last week went to Geneva for the fourth Working Party meeting on The Bahamas’ accession bid.

The delegation will this week likely brief the Government, and private sector, on the outcome of those talks and what they may mean for the terms of The Bahamas’ accession, specific industries and the wider economy.

The 15 percent duty rate mentioned by Mr Roberts refers to the fact that The Bahamas must cut its average tariff rate to that level - from the present 32 percent - as part of its accession to full WTO membership.

However, the Government and its negotiating team will likely argue that fears of a 25 percent VAT rate to compensate are unfounded. The VAT rate increase to 12 percent, implemented with the 2018-2019 budget, will likely remain in place long-term to make up for the reduction in tariff rates and associated revenues.

Estimates for how much tariff revenue will be foregone range from $40m to between $100m-$200m. The rationale for the VAT rate hike was to enable the Government to pay off a $360m unfunded arrears backlog, which should be accomplished in time for both the WTO tariff cuts and next general election.

The Government has also frequently argued that WTO membership will not facilitate the free movement of labour, meaning the ability of foreign nationals to enter The Bahamas to live and work. Such a concept was associated with the CARICOM Single Market & Economy (CSME), which The Bahamas has not signed on to, whereas WTO is concerned with free trade in goods and services.

And Mr Symonette and others in the administration have also frequently asserted that WTO membership will not result in an influx of foreign companies and multinationals, pointing out that the Bahamian economy is already greatly liberalised - especially on the service side - and that the Government will still be able to approve who comes in via its “horizontal commitments”.

But, confirming Mr Roberts’ opposition, Super Value’s stores now feature promotional material from the Bahamians Against WTO group, carrying messages such as: “WTO is not wanted in The Bahamas. Bahamian businesses will be no more.”

The Super Value chief said he could not see any Bahamian industry benefiting from WTO membership - not even accountants and attorneys. He added that he would remain opposed to joining even if the Chamber of Commerce-commissioned study by Oxford Economics produced overwhelming evidence in favour of accession.

“If the Oxford group comes along and says this is the greatest thing for The Bahamas to join the WTO, I still don’t want it,” Mr Roberts told Tribune Business. “I don’t think it’s good for us. I’ve seen so many things that we cannot trust, but which this country hopes can happen, especially politically.

“It gets changed, and this group gets screwed. There is not one benefit. We don’t have much to trade. Why do we have to join the WTO when we have little or nothing to trade? My answer is no.”

The Oxford Economics study, due to be completed and released imminently, is intended to analyse WTO’s likely impact on the overall economy as well as key, specific industries. The Chamber has said its findings will determine whether it supports or opposes the accession bid.

“From what I know about it I’m against joining the WTO. I don’t see how it could be good for us. We can’t compete with the world, and can’t let the world in,” Mr Roberts added. “When I say compete with the world, Bahamian can go outside and become world beaters and world leaders, but overall I don’t feel it would be good for us.

“I’ve heard a speech by Rand Paul [US senator] calling for the US to withdraw. It looks like the WTO has served its purpose and the world should be rethinking it, and countries rethinking it, and coming up with something better than one size fits all. The size doesn’t fit The Bahamas.”

Last year’s G-20 summit communique, issued under pressure from the US, called for reform of the WTO, which serves as the overseer for the world’s rules-based trading regimes. This has produced several calls locally for The Bahamas to hold off from joining until the outcome of such potential changes becomes clearer.

“I don’t think we need a referendum,” Mr Roberts said of WTO’s political implications. “All government has to do is a comprehensive survey of how Bahamians feel, and they shouldn’t go against the wishes or desires of Bahamians. If the electorate feel we should not, they should not.”

Agreeing that the Government seemed to be moving the WTO accession forward regardless, he warned against ignoring the Bahamian people’s will. “I think they’ll have a big, big push back from the voters if they were to do that,” he told Tribune Business.

“We elected them to make the decisions for us, but this is too big a decision, and a decision the voters are against. That will be a problem for them politically.... I think they’re going headlong into it. That’s what it seems like. I hope they can get a vote through Parliament because I think the businessmen in parliament are against it, and if enough are against it they may as well quit now.”

Arguing that the Government had not come close to making the case for full WTO membership, the Super Value chief told Tribune Business: “The people that are for it should help show us where it’s good for us. Even the Government should do that; show is it’s good for us, convince us it’s good for us.”