Dorian: Economy bound to take ‘negative hit’ on GDP

By NATARIO McKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter​

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net​

Hurricane Dorian will have a significant ‘negative impact’ to this nation’s fiscal position, with GDP to take a significant negative ‘hit’ due to the need for massive infrastructural spend.​

Robert Myers, the Organisation for Responsible Governance’s (ORG) principal, told Tribune Business: “This is a tragic and most unfortunate event and one that we have remained concerned about for many years. It is a relief that Nassau was not hit, as this magnitude of storm would have set the country into an unsustainable level of debt that we may never have rebounded from.

“Abaco remains the third pillar of the Bahamian economy and this is disturbing.” ​

He added: “Unfortunately, this storm has caused immense damage to Marsh Harbour and the surrounding areas and the damage to infrastructure, while incalculable at this time, is likely to have significant negative impact to the nation’s fiscal position. Of equal concern is the fact that on top of the need for massive infrastructural spend, there will be a significant negative hit to GDP and employment that will be very damaging to a small community so dependent on tourism and the need for operating infrastructure and functional high quality bed nights.”​

Mr Myers said it will be critically important for funding to be provided for “temporary housing and infrastructure that allows the fastest possible reconstruction of infrastructure, businesses, rental homes, docks, hotels and the communities that have supported and depended on this wonderful ecosystem called the Abacos.

“One can only hope that between the IDB financial commitments, the quick actions of the insurance companies, government and the banks, that this concept is understood and that the bureaucracy is replaced by the sensible desire and need to get the people and businesses of this devastated community back to some form of normalcy as quickly as is humanly possible,” said Mr Myers.​

He continued: “It is critical that the Ministry of Tourism act quickly to inform the world that while we are deeply concerned for the people of the Abacos and we are doing all we can for them that 3/4 of our tourism product remains completely unaffected. We ask our valued visitors of our beautiful nation to please help our plight by rebooking their vacations in any one of our other spectacular island destinations.

“It is of importance for all other Bahamians not directly impacted by this disaster to understand that we must do our beat to pull together to help drive the economy forward to compensate for the losses we will sustain.

“This means we must all try and put our differences aside to put our best foot forward to make sure we remain a first choice for FDI, local development and tourism. We must try and absorb those displaced by the devastation and try and help these families find shelter and work.”

Comments

Porcupine says...

I fear this could be the straw that scares all camels who are awake.

Posted 5 September 2019, 7:34 a.m. Suggest removal

observer2 says...

Myer’s fatalism coupled with FNM/Turnquest balance the budget and tax the ppl at any cost voodoo economics only exasperates the impact of this tragedy.

Any economist with any sense will tell you that insurance receipts, the $100 emergency loan, massive amount of US dollars coming back into Abaco (from Bahamians and foreigners) for the rebuild and donations will offset tourism inputs.

Stop underestimating the resiliency of the Bahamian spirit. We will rebuild despite crippling Government taxes, incompetence and market stifling beauracy. GDP will recover.

Posted 5 September 2019, 7:46 a.m. Suggest removal

Well_mudda_take_sic says...

The genie is out the bottle my friend. International lenders now seeing for the first time just how prone our more populated islands are to such events will demand much higher interest rates on whatever credit facilities they extend to us going forward. Foreign investors are going to be thinking twice and then will be insisting on even more tax and other concessions that will leave little if any benefit from their investments for our economy.

Posted 5 September 2019, 9:41 a.m. Suggest removal

observer2 says...

Absolutely correct Well-mudda,

Where there is no vision the ppl perish (Proverbs 29:18).

Which why we need to stop construction of these monolithic energy hoggish tourism edifices (Atlantis, Baha Mar, Lighthouse Point etc.). These hotels have no regard for climate change. The hotels eat up 80% of the energy produced by BEC and the Bahamian public subsidizes BEC to the tune of debts of $550 million (according to the Citibank SPV) now being raised on Wall Street for BEC for the poor Bahamian ppl with $100 light bills to pay.

What happens when a Cat 6 hits Nassau in the next 20 years and these hotels and cruise ports are flattened?

We can theoretically evacuate Marsh Habour, but how do you feed 250,000 in Nassau?

Posted 5 September 2019, 9:52 a.m. Suggest removal

Well_mudda_take_sic says...

NOAA/National Hurricane Center statisticians and underwriters at many of world's leading insurers doing business in the Caribbean region have calculated there's more than a 40% probability of Nassau taking a direct hit from a major category 4+ hurricane within the next 10 years due to changing global climate patterns.

Posted 5 September 2019, 10:42 a.m. Suggest removal

Porcupine says...

It should also be noted that climate change is driving the acceleration of sea level rise. With or without a hurricane, the recent projections suggest that we are on track to see some serious sea level increases in 20 to 30 years. This is a blink of an eye. Can anyone really imagine what 1 -3 feet of sea level rise does to the economics of The Bahamas? Think about this. We don't need a hurricane, according to the recent science, to push this country to the brink.

Posted 6 September 2019, 8:51 p.m. Suggest removal

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