Tuesday, June 9, 2020
By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
Bahamians must abandon their "xenophobic and schizophrenic" attitude towards foreign investors if the economy is to survive the devastation inflicted by COVID-19, a prominent doctor warned yesterday.
Dr Johnathan Rodgers, pictured, the "eye doctor" and well-known economic commentator, told Tribune Business that the country's urgent need for alternative foreign currency inflows amid the tourism industry shutdown meant the deeply-ingrained mindset of "we want your money, we don't want you" regarding foreign direct investment (FDI) must cease immediately.
Arguing that the Bahamian economy needs a US dollar infusion "right now", Dr Rodgers urged the Central Bank and other public sector agencies "to cut through the bureaucratic red tape" and permit overseas investors to purchase Bahamian dollar-denominated government debt.
Also calling for foreign-owned companies based in The Bahamas to be permitted to pay their employees in US dollars, he added that the "walls" traditionally separating the domestic banking industry from its international counterpart need to be truly broken down so that some of the billions of dollars passing through the latter annually have a chance to remain in this nation via investments.
Demanding that the government and regulatory agencies "seize the bull by the horns", otherwise the Bahamian economy will sink, Dr Rodgers also suggested that the country revisit offering so-called "investor citizenships", or economic passports, to high net worth individuals and their families in return for investing multi-million dollar sums locally.
He voiced optimism that the Central Bank might heed the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) suggestion that there was "some room" to cut interest rates without creating any risks for The Bahamas' foreign currency reserves and one:one US dollar peg, advocating that the discount rate be slashed in half to two percent to provide urgent relief for hard-pressed borrowers.
Dr Rodgers added that fiscal policy stimulus alone would be insufficient to drag The Bahamas from its post-COVID-19 "rut", and said the country needed to "use all tools at our disposal" - including an expansionary monetary policy, which has been opposed by John Rolle, the Central Bank's governor.
Otherwise, he warned, the country will "wake up from this nightmare and find we're in hell". Dr Rodgers argued that The Bahamas' monetary dilemma stemmed not from the fixed exchange rate peg, but the fact that at all times before the COVID-19 pandemic hit it was attracting insufficient US dollar inflows to provide the necessary foreign reserves buffer.
"The real issue for us in this economic recovery is that the Budget used only fiscal policy, not monetary policy. All other countries have used a combination of both because you need both to properly structure any hope of recovery," Dr Rodgers said.
"The problem that The Bahamas faces is we have the peg. We are at a point between choosing to maintain the reserves to maintain the peg, or lowering interest rates and using monetary policy to help the recovery process. I totally understand the Central Bank's position in wanting to protect the peg, but the fact is they would not have to worry about protecting the peg if there were sufficient US dollars in the economy.
"If there were sufficient US dollars in the economy at all times the peg would not be the issue... The problem is not the peg itself. It's because we have insufficient inflows of US dollars coming into the economy at the best of times."
The Central Bank's primary monetary policy objective has always been to protect the foreign currency reserves, ensuring they are always adequate to maintain the one:one US dollar peg, given the economic dislocation and disruption a devaluation would cause. This, if it were to happen, would cause a major spike in prices and inflation, resulting in reduced living standards and purchasing power for all Bahamians.
However, Dr Rodgers argued that this policy focus creates an economic "paradox". He explained that when the economy was performing well, with persons investing and spending money, consumption demand inevitably increased import volumes which, in turn, boosted government revenues.
However, the increased drain on the foreign reserves caused by the spike in imports always threatens to prompt the Central Bank to "put the brakes on", slowing both the economy and government taxes due to the need to protect the US dollar peg.
"Now we have an even greater shortage of US dollars because of the tourism shutdown," Dr Rodgers added. "A major structural anomaly is coming back to bite us in the back side. Now our backs are up against the wall with no US dollars coming in, the reserves will gradually go down and the economy is at a standstill.
"That's why we have to drop this legacy mindset and find ways to get US dollars into the economy right now. That means the Investments Board, NEC (the Cabinet), and Central Bank are going to have to take the position that we need this money, cut through the bureaucratic red tape that exists and let this money in."
Detailing the liberalisation measures he believes should be implemented, Dr Rodgers added: "It means allowing foreigners to buy Bahamian dollar government debt. It means that we have to allow those foreign companies here in The Bahamas to pay Bahamians in US dollars. It means we have to encourage those big entities here to have Treasury functions in The Bahamas so US dollars come into The Bahamas.
"We have to allow those offshore banks to participate in the local domestic banking sector, and allow all that money coming into The Bahamas through the offshore sector to stay in The Bahamas. Billions of dollars pass through The Bahamas every year. Allow it to stay here and buy Bahamian stocks, bonds and real estate."
While The Bahamas' need to comply with the European Union's (EU) demands to eliminate so-called "ring fencing" meant that the so-called walls between the domestic and international banking sectors have been broken down, Dr Rodgers argued that an attitude change was more important.
"Open the God damn thing up," he said of the Bahamian economy. "We say we're an open economy, but it's nonsense. It's open for foreigners but not ourselves, and even they cannot invest how they'd like. It's time for us to drop our xenophobic, schizophrenic mindset to foreigners of : 'We want your money but we don't want you'. It's absolute nonsense."
Dr Rodgers added that The Bahamas also needed to revisit offering "investor citizenships" to high net worth individuals who domiciled in this nation and invested in the local economy, arguing that this would both generate crucial foreign exchange earnings and help to counter the regulatory threats from the likes of the EU and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).
"If we make things comfortable for them in The Bahamas, and they feel safe and secure, and there is the rule of law, the money will come," he told Tribune Business. "This old mindset, this old legacy that we have adhered to with religious fanaticism, we have to drop it.
"We have to swim, otherwise we are in danger of sinking. This is the time. It's time to drop the old legacy nonsense. It never made sense. It's time for the regulators to ease up, get rid of all this old insanity, or we will all go down together.
"We don't have time to be waiting; we need to take the bull by the horns and do what needs to be done. They have a moral and ethical responsibility to do the right thing. All these things about being taken over by foreigners and their money, it's nonsense," Dr Rodgers continued.
"No matter what the Economic Recovery Committee comes up with, it will not work unless these old anomalies and albatrosses are put aside and these legacy policies are repealed to suit the times we are in right now."
Arguing that policymakers "need to be shocked, Dr Rodgers said the Central Bank needed to cut its discount rate from the present 4 percent to just 2 percent "flat boom". He argued that this would help spur renewed economic growth by reducing debt servicing costs for households and businesses, freeing up disposable income and investment capital to be injected back into the economy.
The Government's debt servicing costs, given that many of its domestic bond issues are tied to Bahamian Prime, will also reduce. "You're simply using straightforward monetary text book policy that every country in the world is using, and using now to the max," Dr Rodgers reiterated.
"Fiscal policy by itself is good but not enough to get us out of the pandemic. We have to use all tools at our disposal, fiscal and monetary, to get us out of this rut otherwise we are doomed. Period. We're going to wake up from this nightmare and find we're in hell."
Comments
242wedo says...
This man makes eminent good sense. The tide has gone out and we are left swimming naked. Liberalizing this economy and opening up to foreign investment without the ridiculous hurdles, red tape and waiting games that scare good capital away would benefit every tier of this country, and it would cost us nothing. It was the obvious answer years ago, now it's the only one. We will either sink or swim depending on decisions being made now.
Posted 9 June 2020, 3:34 p.m. Suggest removal
Economist says...
Very good Dr. Rodgers. Agree completely. It is time that we, as a people, grew up and joined the rest of the world. It is much more difficult to do business in The Bahamas compared to other countries.
We are scared of change insted of imprasing it and moveing forward. The rest of the world is leaving us behind.
Insted of folowing the Cayman Island,s to success and low unemployment, we are folowing Haiti, to failure and high unemployment.
Posted 9 June 2020, 4:46 p.m. Suggest removal
Porcupine says...
Sorry to disagree, but, the last thing Bahamians need are more high-net worth individuals who contribute little in the way of economic activity and true investment.in the future of this country.
"Economic activity" is not a good unto itself. So long as many people share in the economic pie, all is good. But, the world has been rallying the stock market and other superfluous metrics while the vast, vast majority of people are left behind. "Otherwise, he warned, the country will "wake up from this nightmare and find we're in hell" said Dr. Rogers, according to the Tribune. What percentage of Dr. Rogers friends could say that, and how many Bhaamians in general can say that? "Dr Rodgers argued that The Bahamas' monetary dilemma stemmed not from the fixed exchange rate peg, but the fact that at all times before the COVID-19 pandemic hit it was attracting insufficient US dollar inflows to provide the necessary foreign reserves buffer." Really, a small country like The Bahamas having billions of dollars flowing through it, but we want to argue for more, instead of trying to capture a larger share of that for our own economy. Sell citizenship? Honestly.
Dr. Rogers wants change. I wonder how Dr. Rogers mindset has changed over the years? What should be clear to any thinking person is that the present system isn't working. Nibble away at the edges with fiscal and monetary policy, or use the large brains we were endowed with to radically change the entire way of doing business. The gatekeepers, of which most people quoted in the papers are, want nothing to really change. They can't even imagine it.
Posted 10 June 2020, 8:29 a.m. Suggest removal
Dawes says...
What would you do to get us out of the situation we are in?
Posted 10 June 2020, 9:33 a.m. Suggest removal
Porcupine says...
Dawes, first let's define "the situation we are in:" I like to start at the top. This country has had billions of dollars a year flow through this country. The envy of any developing country. Yet, for decades now, we have failed to make sure that our "people" had any real security. Money security, health security, job security, educational security. We did not insure that a rising tide lifts all boats. It hasn't, That is clear here, as it is around the world. So, if I was looking at solutions that help humanity, not just a restoration of business as it was, I would have to propose radically new ways of doing business. Otherwise, why bother to resurrect a failed paradigm. Presently, we have no representatives who actually work for and empathize with the poor and marginalized, nor the working person. Those people, most people, who do not have a minute to comment on this article, as you and I do. I am speaking as someone who is not religious, yet believes that the Christian message is a pretty good one. Imagine if. With that said, capitalism, full throated, and Christianity cannot truly coexist. Personally, I think we need a world view that focuses on governments providing the greatest good for the greatest number. Instead of worshiping and rewarding short term profits and money alone. Our incentive structure needs to be radically changed. Is this an opening for us to do so? If the thought process was mature enough and educated, which it is not, we would see a new way of leverage to attract a more locally multiplying dollar that is equally beneficial to both the government coffers, as well as, to incentivize, local entrepreneurship. This has never happened, and we know why.
Posted 10 June 2020, 11:21 a.m. Suggest removal
242wedo says...
"High net worth individuals contribute little". This is a trope of the variety Dr. Johnson makes reference to. It seems rooted in anti foreign sentiment, or, at best, a rose-colored view of this country which ignores its very real limitations in a globally competitive landscape. Atlantis, Baha Mar, entire service industries, construction etc all stem from the high net worth individuals and FDI some seem intent to shrug off as though this small and indebted nation runs off straw market sales. We do have clear examples in the Caribbean of nations that have opened up and benefited immensely, and those who have doubled down on nationalistic policies to nowhere fast. There need not be any tension between opening up and safeguarding what is cherished about this beautiful land. But odes to socialism at this time do us little good.
Posted 10 June 2020, 12:51 p.m. Suggest removal
Porcupine says...
The Bahamas is a natural and national Disney World. You do realize this, don't you? I have spent some time traveling. The Bahamas has many, many reasons to visit and to live. We don't need to give away the farm. We need to tax these people much more. We need to get this regressive taxation off of our Bahamian backs and right where it belongs, included in our business model. Customs is an absolutely archaic disaster. Start taxing real property. Remember, supply and demand. They ain't making anymore Bahamasland. Disney World ain't free, and neither should visiting and living in The Bahamas. Quit making concessions for people who don't need them, nor deserve them. We continue to sell ourselves short. Our natural resources, and our human resources. Start a wholesale program that stimulates partnerships between foreign investors and local entrepreneurs. However, you are asking for those who have profited from and been educated by, a thoroughly flawed and failed system for allocating the scarce resources of this beautiful earth fairly and equitably among all. There is little humane about this economic and political system we presently have. I know more than I speak. We are not any nearer our human potential than we have been in our lifetimes. This does not suggest that we who have had the floor, have any reason to demand it any further. We have not succeeded. The metrics confirming this abound. The precipitous decline of our living world should be enough for others to demand the reigns from here on out. Nothing short of a revolution means diddly. Now, who comfortable among us is ready for that?
Posted 10 June 2020, 11:22 a.m. Suggest removal
SipPis says...
Nobody is talking about 'giving away the farm'. Making investment easier does not mean giving anything away. It still entails capital and risk, and it still employs Bahamians and contributes to the commonwealth. Making it inviting to do so here vs. Turks or Cayman (or anywhere else) is not giving away anything. On the contrary, it enriches our nation. The notion that investors are clamoring to come to our 'Disneyland' or would stay if we over taxed them is simply false. If only that were so.
Posted 10 June 2020, 1:32 p.m. Suggest removal
banker says...
Many of the commentators here have it right. Rodgers assumes that all one has to do it, is "open it up" and dollars will flow in. Not true. Before I left the Nassau banking scene, my job in wealth management was to assist high net worth individuals move their money out of Nassau -- largely because of their business interests. That's when I saw the writing on the wall, after a second billionaire client of the bank repatriated his wealth.
The Bahamas has a black eye in the wealth management field for many reasons, including anonymous IBCs, a totally incompetent regulator who let the likes of Benchmark, Montaque etc use client money without any punitive damages to the principals who did it, a useless, moribund, non-liquid stock exchange, KYC rules that punish Bahamians but give a pass to High Net Worth Individuals, lawyers who tout a system of fair laws, yet there is zero degrees of separation between judges, state, business and lawyers. It was the US who brought Nygard down, Perry and the PLPs welcomed him. ... I could go on.
You have to have economic activity to induce influx of capital. US Dollars/capital is the fuel of economic activity. What's the point of having fuel without an engine.
So the quick answer is to let foreigners come in to do business. The quick rebuttal to that is that the ease of doing business eats into profits and is unsound. Who wants to wait 3 months for a $15,000 work permit, or 6 months for business approvals, or ... this is the stupid one ... paying your business tax up front based on turnover, when you haven't turned it over yet. We are retards in the entire business field.
Bottom line, we are fooked. We don't have a massive cadre of educated human capital, and that situation is exacerbated by the brain drain. We don't have a friendly business environment. We have onerous hoops to jump through for legislation and permits, and we have a populace that is largely unenlightened and suspicious of technology and globalization.
Posted 10 June 2020, 12:22 p.m. Suggest removal
Economist says...
It is the FDI business investor that we need.
Not only those like Atlantis, but also the businesses like Buckeye, PharmaChem, GB Shipyard, Bradford Marine, Polymers, etc. all of which invested tens of millions of dollars and are the ones who provide the only real employment in Grand Bahama.
In addition, these foreigners all pay well and provide good benefits.
But you will see that these are industries that came when we were less xenaphobic than we are today.
Posted 10 June 2020, 1:10 p.m. Suggest removal
bcitizen says...
How about we get rid of government's local investor xenophobia while we are at it. The government does more to stifle this countries growth than anything else. Covid and hurricanes like Dorian are a joke compared to the economic and GDP damage done by the civil serive of this country
Posted 11 June 2020, 7:58 a.m. Suggest removal
Log in to comment