Assuming the Italian scenario, mainly because the Minnis-led government failed to implement rigorous containment measures much earlier, and using Sands's voodoo extrapolation math, the 4 confirmed cases from 117 tests indicates as many as 687 deaths may be likely. The Italian scenario anticipates 67% of the population eventually being infected with the death rate currently at about 7.5% of those infected. Italy's higher death rate is a real possibility for the Bahamas given that so many Bahamians already have one or more high risk pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, obesity, hyper-tension, etc. which makes them especially vulnerable. We desperately need much more testing as soon as possible across a much greater swath of our population in order to gain a better understanding of what we can expect as this Red China Virus takes hold in our society.

4/117 x 400,000 x 67% x 7.5% = 687 deaths

Perhaps the ball rooms at the Baha Mar Convention Centre should be staged now with plenty of temporary beds (cots) spaced apart as much as possible. The more proactive we are the better because the usual reactive mode could be very costly in terms of total lives lost.

You are assuming that the testing was done randomly, but I suspect it was done only on "contacts" of the 4 infected. This is the right way to proceed: COMPLETELY isolate the contacts, then test them - and if they are positive you completely isolate those. The more rigorously this is followed, the better the outcome and the faster the economic recovery. The Bahamas is extremely lucky to have a medical doctor as Prime Minister, and I hope he will adhere to the most stringent containment efforts - he has started well. However, unfortunately all flights from the US must either be stopped, or at the very least all passengers arriving from the US must be immediately placed in quarantine. The situation in the US is deteriorating rapidly - already an American is twice as likely to be infected as a Chinaman/woman. I believe that all air travel between the Islands must stop immediately: try to keep some of the Out Islands virus-free. The Bahamas must make contingency plans for the possibility of chaos in the US (I desperately hope that won't happen). This virus is a real killer and is turning the world upside down.

We missed containment long ago because of Minnis's love affair with the cruise ship industry and now were missing on the testing because we still don't have an adequate supply of testing kits. Nothing to do now but prepare for the worse.