A BILLION dollars by July.

That’s the size of the projected loss to the Bahamian economy according to the man who holds the purse strings, Finance Minister Peter Turnquest.

And just as there are two stages to the battle we find ourselves in – first the fight to save lives, then the fight to save the economy – so there are two stages to the economic challenge ahead.

First, there is the difficulty of a sudden spike in people out of work – and the need to keep food in their stomachs and a roof over their head.

No one here is to blame for this sudden financial crash, and no one needs to feel ashamed at having to turn for help. In less than three months since the first case at the end of December in China, the world has been turned upside down – and few could have been prepared for that, least of all those who already were struggling to make ends meet.

So the first stage is to keep people going until the economy can be rebooted. The second step will be measures to reinvigorate the economy itself. We’re not there yet – but we should know it is on the horizon once we extinguish any trace of the virus in our country. Beyond the quarantine is when we can start that battle, and if people don’t know already the importance of obeying that quarantine, then they should know the amount of money in their pocket depends on doing so.

Let us be clear, though – that billion dollar blow won’t magically go away come August. The International Development Bank has forecast that the overall figure for losses is likely to be $3bn. That loss until July is just the beginning.

The measures being put in place by the government can help cushion that blow, but they can’t stop it. We must be aware of the magnitude of the affect on our economy – and be prepared for what it will take to recover. A billion? That’s just the start.

Businesses have been making their own plans for continuity during this time – some weathering it better than others, but those in the tourist market suddenly finding themselves with zero income. There is assistance to help there, and, as of yesterday, an announcement of help for the self-employed outside the tourism industry.

That makes sense – because we are so interconnected as a society that many self-employed might be making their money from customers who themselves work in the tourist trade.

Family Islands, too, are to get extra help, and there is every sign that the government is revising the areas that need help as they encounter them.

We must not be mistaken, though – some businesses will not be able to weather this storm, and unemployment will be a spectre that will haunt us for a long time. We applaud the businesses doing all they can to help their staff through until they reopen – but some will not be able to cope with two or more months with no significant income.

As Mr Turnquest said yesterday, “The financial impact on the economy may end up being much more dire than this scenario if the threat of COVID-19 persists over the medium term.”

We need to beat this, as soon as we can, so that we can start to rebuild.

Here’s where we can rely on our strengths. We have a vocal and enthusiastic business community. The government would do well to listen to them as we navigate through this unprecedented period.

Already, as can be seen in our business section today, a number of voices are speaking up about ways in which businesses can be helped to safeguard jobs.

Put simply, the more jobs that can be saved through this period, the better positioned the business community will be to rebound.

Jobs aren’t merely numbers, jobs are people who are trained and ready to fill their role to the maximum, with no delay for training or becoming accustomed to a role.

A number of companies have questions about the support on offer – and it is fair to point out that this has happened so quickly that some of the details are still being worked out – though there are certainly concerns to be raised about those businesses who played fair and paid their licence fees only to find that the announcement of a delay on the deadline on those benefits those who hadn’t.

For the businesses that are trying to do the right thing at this time, they need support and encouragement just as much as the businesses that have been quick to offload staff. There may be creative ways to come up with solutions for that, and lending an ear to the business community can perhaps provide some of those solutions.

Equally, businesses themselves have to play a full part in getting past this phase of quarantine so that we can start to open the country back up again. That doesn’t just mean borders, that means getting back to work for our own internal economy. That means landscaping companies. That means restaurants. That means lawyers, dentists, banks, car companies, and a thousand more businesses that cater to Bahamians, not just to visitors. Businesses must understand we have to get past this phase of community spread before we go full throttle on getting back to as close to normal as we can.

The future will not have easy decisions. We depend too on good decisions being made in other countries from which our visitors will come. But if we get there first, it puts us in a position to be ready to make those decisions.

Give the new commissioner time

It was on October 30, 2017, that Anthony Ferguson became the seventh Commissioner of Police in The Bahamas. Now, a little less than two and a half years later, he is moving on.

He departs amid ongoing uncertainty about the tenure of a number of senior police officers who were packed off on enforced holiday only to return to find themselves shunted off to different tasks.

He also departs with a number of questions unanswered about cases where police may have exceeded their authority or beaten suspects. In fact, it’s almost a year since he suggested that when it came to suspending officers who have carried out unlawful killings, it wasn’t his job.

Commissioner Ferguson wasn’t an outspoken figure, such as his predecessor, Ellison Greenslade, but nor does two and a half years seem like a long enough time to truly make a mark and overhaul the force to his own requirements. His successor, Paul Rolle, now has that task. The new commissioner has been an officer since 1983, and has a string of qualifications behind him to go with his years in uniform.

Will he be given the time he needs? One would hope at least that he won’t find himself in the position of Commodore Tellis Bethel of the RBDF, shunted off on leave, with whatever amount of holiday time he has accrued.

He has a tough task ahead of him. The stalled economy will only make crime worse, and resources will be at a premium. The very least he deserves is time. We sincerely hope that National Security Minister Marvin Dames won’t be hinting at the need to pick out a successor any time soon.

One other note – take a look at the photograph of the ceremony to mark his ascension to the post on Page 7. At the risk of being overly critical, at a time when the leaders of the country are preaching about social distancing, why is everyone crowded together in the photograph?

Lead by example, please. Starting now.