By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A trade union leader last night said The Bahamas' requires "divine intervention" to counter a COVID-19 economic fall-out that could reach "Biblical proportions".

Bernard Evans, the National Congress of Trade Unions of The Bahamas (NCTUB) president, described the pandemic's far-reaching impact as being akin to "two to three category five hurricanes going on at the same time and lasting for two to three months".

Disclosing to Tribune Business that he is "scared and a little bit frightened" as to COVID-19's impact on a jobless rate forecast by the prime minister to hit at least 30 percent, Mr Evans warned that the unemployed ranks will soon be swelled by another 4,000-5,000 high school graduates joining the workforce with no place to go.

Suggesting that The Bahamas will need "very high-up intervention to carry us through", the union leader said both the NCTUB's affiliate unions and those belonging to the Trades Union Congress (TUC) were meeting within the next 24 hours to develop unionised labour's recommendations on what the government should do about the rapidly-approaching 90-day permanent worker termination deadline.

Reforms to the Employment Act passed by the Christie administration require that employers pay full severance/termination pay to workers who have been sent home/furloughed once that 12-13 week deadline is hit. Given that the hotel and tourism industry, in particular, shows no sign of re-opening any time soon, thousands of workers may have to be terminated by early to mid-June unless legal reforms are passed.

The private sector has urged the government to double the period during which unemployed persons are eligible for National Insurance Board (NIB) unemployment benefits to 26 week, as it did in the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian for Abaco and Grand Bahama residents.

However, Mr Evans called on all employers to re-hire any staff permanently terminated at the same positions and salaries whenever they re-opened should such action be necessary. He voiced concerns that failing to do so would only further widen inequalities in Bahamian society and "kill" a middle class already struggling as it is with the COVID-19 reality of reduced incomes and higher unemployment.

His comments came as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) yesterday said its data suggested 9.9 percent of working hours - equivalent to 1.5m jobs - will be lost in the Caribbean due to COVID-19 in the 2020 second quarter. The Bahamas was included in the survey.

Acknowledging these findings, Mr Evans told Tribune Business: "COVID-19 may have caused 11 physical deaths in The Bahamas so far, but indirectly it could be killing a lot of dreams, hopes and aspirations for generations to come if it is not managed correctly.

"You're going to see mortgages not being paid, car payments not being met. You're going to see a lot of things falling out from this. It's like two to three Category Five storms going on at the same time for the next two to three months, which will also have a lasting effect on government's finances.

"The fall-out could be of Biblical proportions. We will need spiritual intervention to be rescued out of it. I laugh as I say that, but really and truly we have to pray that economic success, and fighting for equality and decent work, comes back. We're on a very slippery slope, and it could go the wrong way if not managed properly."

Mr Evans suggested that at least 50,000-60,000 jobs in The Bahamas were directly or indirectly related to the tourism industry, hence the Prime Minister's prediction that the unemployment rate could easily hit 30 percent or around 70,000-80,000 of the 230,000-strong workforce.

Acknowledging that The Bahamas is arguably the most tourism-dependent nation in the Caribbean, the NCTUB chief said it was unlikely that the industry's workforce will "get a call to come back any time soon".

"It is encouraging to hear a lot of people say they can't wait to travel, and I hope they mean what they say," Mr Evans added, "but the same people we're relying on to travel are also impacted by the loss of jobs in their country and may not have the liquid cash to vacation.

"We're hoping and praying for the best, but are preparing for the worst. We're going to need some very high-up intervention to carry us through and deliver us safely out the other side if possible. To tell the truth, I'm scared and a little bit frightened as to what this means in terms of jobs, because when school closes that's another 4,000-5,000 kids out there looking for employment. It doesn't look good. It really doesn't."

Mr Evans said the Government had sought the NCTUB's input on the 90-day termination deadline, and the body was due to meet with it affiliates last night before combining with the TUC in a joint response.

Describing the issue as a "very big concern", he added that the union movement wanted to ensure that any workers permanently terminated as a result of COVID-19 were re-hired at the same levels and salaries as they enjoyed previously once their employers and the economy re-opened.

Some employers may not re-open, while Mr Evans said others will see it as both an opportunity and need to reduce costs by either coming back with less staff or hiring younger, cheaper labour.

"We have to be careful how we do that and not leave people exposed," he argued. "This is a very sensitive issue, and the Government has got to be careful on how it's meted out. It will be like walking on egg shells. The effect could be very long-lasting and unforgiving. It's touch and go.

"I don't blame the employer to try and get someone younger on less salary. Everybody's looking for ways to save. But we have to be very careful not to marginalise for the sake of saving money and end up killing the middle class."