* Minister: We can't afford any more instability

* Industry must operate through restrictions

* 'Jubilant' over Baha Mar re-opening date

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A "jubilant" Cabinet minister yesterday urged that the tourism industry be "carved out" from future COVID-19 lockdowns after Baha Mar confirmed plans to begin a phased re-opening from December 17.

Dionisio D'Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, told Tribune Business that exempting the sector from such restrictions was vital to restoring "stability" and market confidence in a business that is The Bahamas' largest source of jobs, economic activity and foreign exchange earnings.

Arguing that this justified what some may regard as special treatment, Mr D'Aguilar said The Bahamas could ill-afford a repeat of what occurred in late July - with the reimposition of border controls and restrictions that effectively shut the sector down once again - as it now bids to "come out of the blocks a second time".

Suggesting that the confirmed re-opening dates from Atlantis and Baha Mar are "the instant result of the removal of the 14-day quarantine" on November 1, Mr D'Aguilar said of the moves by The Bahamas' two largest resorts: "It's hopeful. I'm jubilant, I'm excited, I'm happy, but it's important to reiterate once again the need to bring stability to the tourism market.

"While the Government may have to, from time to time, impose restrictions on the domestic economy, it's important we carve out those operating in the tourism sector so that they can operate with some semblance of stability."

Making the case for hotels and other tourism-related businesses to continue operating even if the Government has to impose harsher COVID-19 lockdowns and other restrictions on the rest of the economy and Bahamian society, Mr D'Aguilar said the country's dire economic condition meant it had no choice but to fire up its largest industry.

He added that the newly-announced testing COVID-19 testing regime, which requires all visitors to present a negative PCR test within five days of travelling to this nation combined with a further test for those whose stays extend into a fifth day, would sufficiently mitigate the risk of hotel guests spreading the virus to other tourists as well as staff.

"Everybody going into those properties has been tested with a PCR test," Mr D'Aguilar added, "so the health risk is lower because they have been tested with the gold standard of testing. All those persons going into their facilities will have been tested as well.

"It's important we allow them to operate and remain competitive with the rest of the world but, even more importantly, contribute the impact they have on job creation and foreign exchange earnings, and the additional money they add to government revenues in VAT and departure taxes.

"It's very important given that they make up 50 percent of GDP, and employ two out of every three Bahamians. It's very important coming out of the blocks a second time we ensure we do our level best to allow this sector to operate in a very stable environment because of the enormous impact it has."

Mr D'Aguilar's message is effectively that The Bahamas cannot incur a second reversal of the tourism industry's re-opening, via the imposition of lockdowns, tighter curfews and other restrictions, due to the disastrous impact this would have for market confidence in this nation among potential visitors, travel agents, tour operators and airlines.

The minister also moved yesterday to downplay any expectations that the phased re-opening of Atlantis and Baha Mar, with both resorts employing a "bubble" or 'vacation in place' business model in the initial stages, meant an instant return to "business as usual" for both hotel workers and spin-off tourism businesses that rely on both resorts.

As Bahamian resort properties ease into their 'new normal', Mr D'Aguilar explained that their focus will be on preventing any COVID-19 outbreaks among guests or staff, meaning that business volumes for the likes of straw vendors and taxi drivers could be depressed for some time yet.

And, with the United Nations' World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) reporting that global travel and tourism business is down by 70 percent, Mr D'Aguilar said this translated - in the context of The Bahamas' stopover visitors - to a near-1.3m year-over-year decline compared to 2019's 1.8m land-based arrivals.

And, when it came to tourism and the wider economy's post-COVID-19 recovery, the minister warned all Bahamians to brace for a long haul given that it took many businesses some seven years to return to 2007 numbers following the 2008-2009 recession.

Still, Mr D'Aguilar voiced optimism that the re-opening of The Bahamas' two mega resorts will encourage other hotel properties to follow suit by creating sufficient scale that encourages the major US airlines to ramp up services to this nation.

"We've got Atlantis opening, Baha Mar opening, and hopefully it starts to build momentum," he told Tribune Business. "When we get properties online it builds scale, and with scale you get lift and that creates an opportunity for the hotels to operate in all the islands. That's a positive outcome.

"We need to build scale so that the airlines will find us attractive in order to operate. I have spoken to some of the airlines to have the lift come back into place, and now Atlantis and Baha Mar have indicated they are ready to move forward they will start to fill the planes in terms of getting lift back into place and tourism into the destination."

However, with resorts focused on COVID-19 health and safety, Mr D'Aguilar warned: "It's not going to be business as usual. It's not going to be as it was with pre-COVID-19 conditions. It's [tourism] not going to be accessible and interlinked with other parts of the economy as it was pre-COVID."

This will impact the likes of beach vendors and hair braiders, as the minister emphasised: "It's not OK, with everything back to normal and everybody back to work as it once was. Everybody is moving cautiously at the outset. It will return to business as usual at some stage, but at least at this point it's a different business model.

"It's important to manage expectations. World tourism is down 70 percent. We are going to try and get our share of it, but it will not be like it was. If you take 30 percent of last year's 1.8m stopover visitors, you're going down to 540,000."

Asked about Central Bank projections that the tourism industry is unlikely to make a full COVID-19 recovery until 2023, Mr D'Aguilar responded: "Let me put it to you this way. In 2008 the recession started, and many businesses took seven years - to 2014 - to get back to 2007 numbers.

"The effects of COVID-19 have been so precipitous - to go from record numbers down to almost nothing - there's going to be a bounce back, but to get back to 2019 it's anyone's guess when that's going to happen."

Mr D'Aguilar added that the major hotels' December openings had given The Bahamas some four to six weeks "to perfect" its Bahamas Health Travel Visa and testing regime, suggesting this had provided enough time to "work out the kinks".