ACTIVTRADES WEEKLY

By RICARDO EVANGELISTA

www.activtrades.bs

IF ONE was asked to call out an influential year in history, it is unlikely that 1796 would be picked. Years and dates tend to fade into the immense background that makes up the fabric of history, with only a few standing out among the myriad of events that brought us to where we are today.

However, 1796 deserves to be remembered as a remarkable year: Jane Austen began writing Pride and Prejudice and Napoleon Bonaparte won his first battle as an army commander, defeating Austrian forces at the site of Montenotte in the northeast of Italy. But, above all, 1796 was a remarkable year because on May 14, in England, Edward Jenner administered the first ever vaccine, initiating the fightback against smallpox, one of the greatest killers of his time. The disease has since been declared eradicated.

In an article published in 2018, in the Journal of Experimental Medicine, researchers from Institut Pasteur described vaccines as a safety belt and a life insurance for humankind. At a time when fringes in our societies contest the utility of preventive inoculation, it is worth remembering that the World Health Organization estimates that between the years of 2010 and 2015 at least ten million deaths were prevented by vaccination.

Diseases such as polio, which until the middle of the 20th century continued to take its deadly toll on humankind, have been eradicated or confined to a few last remaining pockets due to successful global vaccination campaigns.

2020 is a year likely to stand the test of time and remain vividly present in our collective memory. The coronavirus pandemic is perhaps humanity’s greatest challenge since the end of World War II and the global economy became its greatest collateral victim, as governments scrambled to apply draconian activity-suppression measures in their efforts to contain the virus.

Against this backdrop, we just witnessed the most intensely contested American election in living memory. The outcome remains surrealistically uncertain as the incumbent President claims fraud and refuses to accept the results, without presenting any solid evidence of wrongdoing.

However, when future historians look back to the present time, I suspect the US electoral shenanigans won’t make more than a footnote.

Instead November 2020 will be remembered as the month when it was announced that, following satisfactory tests, production of a COVID-19 vaccine would soon start.

The announcement of the vaccine breakthrough, made on Monday November 9, exactly a week ago, is of historic significance. The stock markets’ immediate reaction illustrated the massive importance of what had just happened. Within hours the S&P500 index reached a new all-time high, with investors moving to price-in the prospect of a return to life without lockdowns and a rebound in economic activity.

For more 16 years, attempts to create an inoculation for SARS (another coronavirus) failed to deliver positive results and the possibility of a similar outcome this time was, until last week, real.

The COVID-19 vaccine is the light at the end of the tunnel, creating real prospects of a return to normality in 2021. It is also a reminder of the essential role science plays in our lives.