• Gov't warned economy 'teetering on the edge'

• Non-full lockdown measures being assessed

• Sir Franklyn: Get COVID-19 'under control'

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Government was yesterday warned that it will hand "a death sentence to an economy already teetering on the edge" if it reimposes a full New Providence lockdown to curb COVID-19's spread.

Ben Albury, Bahamas Bus and Truck's general manager, told Tribune Business many businesses "will not survive" further enforced closures and harsh restrictions after a number of entrepreneurs privately informing him they are prepared "to shut their doors and call it a day" if a complete economic lockdown is implemented.

Speaking after the Prime Minister hinted in his national address that more restrictions are almost inevitable for New Providence and Abaco, Mr Albury warned that the Government would face "much bigger problems" long-term if efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic "wiped out" a large proportion of the private sector and associated jobs.

Voicing sympathy for those who have lost loved ones to, or been infected by, COVID-19, he added that Dr Hubert Minnis' address had "seriously hurt" already-fragile business and investor confidence in the Bahamian economy's rebound prospects.

Urging the Prime Minister to provide more clarity and "avoid insinuations" regarding further restrictions, Mr Albury said any lockdown was likely to be futile when it came to reducing the COVID-19 infection rate due to the failure to enforce health protocols and punish violators with heavy fines.

He was backed to an extent by Sir Franklyn Wilson, the Arawak Homes and Sunshine Holdings chairman, who agreed that any further lockdown of the Bahamian capital will "put us closer to the cliff edge" when it came to both the economy's and government's financial health.

However, he agreed it would be almost impossible for the tourism industry to enjoy a strong re-opening with COVID-19 cases on New Providence increasing at the rate of between 50 to 100 per day, and amounting to some 499 last week alone.

Arguing that the Government had no choice but to bring the pandemic "under control" on the island that is home to two-thirds of The Bahamas' population, Sir Franklyn said a lockdown would have to be "pursued" if this was the best option available to it.

However, in a sign of how greatly the private sector has been spooked by Dr Minnis' national address, Mr Albury said the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association (BMDA), of which his company is a member, had already made its feelings clear within 24 hours through a letter sent to the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC) ahead of the latter's talks with the Government.

"I believe we're beyond the point of lockdowns. The economy is teetering on the edge," Mr Albury told Tribune Business. "There's a lot of people who are starving, a lot of people who haven't worked, the misery index is through the roof, and a lockdown would be a death sentence for an economy teetering on the edge.

"We've been fortunate in my industry to be busy, but as I move around and talk to workers in the hotel and entertainment sectors, there's a lot of industries that have suffered a devastating impact. There's a lot of business people who have said to me that if there's another lockdown they'll shut the doors and call it a day.

"It's interrupting the ordering process, it's interrupting cash flow. Our problem is lack of enforcement. You have foolish people out there not obeying the protocols and following what the Ministry of Health has recommended when it comes to mask wearing, washing hands and keeping a safe distance," Mr Albury added.

"In my opinion there's been a failure when it comes to enforcement. We come back out of lockdown after two, three or four weeks and the numbers come down, but foolish people are foolish people. Unless the Government gets serious about fines, penalties and enforcing the the regulations then things are not going to get any better.

"The numbers are going to go up once we re-open. We've had some of the most draconian measures as far as lockdowns, and where has it got us? We're one of the worst in the world for COVID-19."

Dr Minnis, who was yesterday said to be making good on his promise to consult the private sector and other stakeholders on the latest strategy to reduce the COVIOD-19 infection rate on New Providence and Abaco, has in the eyes of some boxed himself in by previously stating there would be no recourse to further lockdowns after the one imposed in August was aborted within one day after a botched implementation.

The Prime Minister, in his national address, said the Government was taking advice from the World Health Organisation (WHO), which has recommended against full lockdowns, and its regional affiliate in what some observers have interpreted as a move to provide him with cover on whatever decision is taken.

Sources familiar with developments, speaking to Tribune Business yesterday on condition of anonymity, said Dr Minnis was being advised against reverting to a complete lockdown due to the damage this would do to businesses and livelihoods.

Instead, they suggested he and the Government were being encouraged to extend the curfew hours on New Providence to start in late afternoon or early evening, bringing it forward several hours from the present 10pm as a means to curb evening socialising and partying.

While commerce would be permitted to continue from regular morning hours to mid-late afternoon, between 3pm to 5pm, between Monday and Friday on weekdays, this newspaper was told that non-essential businesses such as offices will have to close with all bar key personnel working remotely.

And the Government is also thought to be mulling a weekend lockdown as a means to curb large social gatherings, especially with the National Heroes Day holiday coming up this Monday. This will likely mean the renewed closure of beaches, parks and public spaces, while the extended curfew will further restrict opportunities for night-time businesses such as restaurants.

"If we don't do something quick we're in trouble," one source said, pointing to the imminent October 15 and November 1 re-openings of the tourism industry. "I don't see any alternative. He's [Dr Minnis] not going to do a very hard and fast lockdown. The advice he was given was to let business continue, but offices have to close and they've got to enforce the health protocols."

New Providence's high COVID-19 infection rate, with one in 100 residents now said to have caught the virus, represents a potential deterrent to visitor demand for a Bahamian vacation upon tourism's re-opening

And an advisory from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which was posted on August 6, 2020, urges Americans to avoid "non-essential travel" to this nation due to the high risk of catching COVID-19.

"It's increasingly difficult to advertise The Bahamas as place to come to when the numbers are out of control," the source said. "We're playing high stakes Russian roulette right now, as is every country. We need people to come back here, and if they don't we're in deep trouble. Bahamians just don't seem to get it."

Mr Albury, meanwhile, pointed to the damage done by lockdowns to businesses, jobs, mental health, divorces and child, drug and alcohol abuse, as well as the difficulties experienced by persons with other serious illnesses in accessing the necessary treatment.

"If businesses are wiped out we will have a much bigger problem than we have now," he added. "To say we're going to lock the country down is just not feasible. The loss will be so much greater on so many levels if the Prime Minister decides to do this again.

"We desperately need foreign reserves, we desperately need tourism dollars. How do you do that with locking the country down? Much of this does not make sense."

Sir Franklyn, though, acknowledged the difficult balancing act the Government was facing in trying to save lives while doings its best to protect livelihoods. "The substance of the matter is we have to get this COVID issue under control in New Providence and as swiftly as it can be done," he told Tribune Business.

"We have to try and get through it, because the way we are doing it now is not working. Obviously a lockdown is problematic for the economy, difficult for the Treasury, but if that's the best available we've got to do it.

"The answer is, in my humble opinion, if that's the only thing we have to do, the only option available, we have to do pursue it but, let's face it, it clearly puts us closer to the cliff. I think the financial state of the country is very, very troubling; very, very troubling. We are where we are."