By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Nassau Cruise Port’s top executive says he remains hopeful the cruise industry may return with "very limited sailings" before year-end with 2021 berth bookings exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels.

Michael Maura, the cruise port operator/developer’s chief executive, told Tribune Business that the cash flow lost from missing its projections of the sector's return to Nassau in October will not impact the $250m Prince George Wharf redevelopment that is preparing to demolish the former Festival Place facility within the next two weeks.

Arguing that the cruise industry has "made significant progress" despite having voluntarily extended its shutdown until end-October 2020 at the earliest, while facing a Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) imposed ‘no sail’ order currently due to expire on September 30, Mr Maura said the sector's COVID protocols are now being finalised for presentation to US regulators.

And, with the cruise industry having resumed limited sailings in Europe and the Mediterranean, Mr Maura said in messaged responses to Tribune Business questions: "I believe it is possible that we may see very limited sailings in late 2020 with a more widespread return in January.

"We had previously contemplated the return of business as of October 1 at approximately 50 percent capacity through to December 31, 2020. This will not happen, and we may see limited business in December with anticipation of a more material return in January.

"The cash we had hoped to receive in the fourth quarter of 2020 would have been welcome but the absence of ships during this time does not compromise the project. The bookings we have for 2021 exceed 2019 actuals, which is very promising. We have forecasted 2.6m passengers in 2021, so if the bookings occur as scheduled we would exceed our forecast."

Many observers may view Mr Maura's projections as optimistic, given that they come just after Carnival cancelled sailings by four of its vessels until the March-May 2021 period, with its chief executive, Arnold Donald, saying ships were unlikely to be back at full capacity until 2022.

And, besides satisfying the CDC"s concerns, the cruise industry will also have to restore consumer confidence in the health and safety of its ships after they become one of the initial COVID-19 'hot spot' sources, meaning it will likely take a while to ramp up to full business.

Mr Maura, though, said he believed that the COVID-19 pandemic had given the cruise industry "a further appreciation for The Bahamas" and how - through multiple destinations accessible to passengers for just an $18 per head tax - it was "geographically superior" to rival ports of call.

"We must also consider Bay Street businesses, the hundreds of taxis and tour operators, and the thousands of jobs dependent on the arrival of cruise passengers," he added. "The suspension of cruise tourism has been devastating to all and highlights its value to our small island economy."

As for Prince George Wharf's construction transformation, Mr Maura said: "Materials are on order, equipment is on route and teams are arriving this weekend. The old Customs warehouse is down, demolition of Festival Place is to commence within two weeks, and the contract for the demolition of the port building will be awarded shortly."

Dionisio D'Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, concurred that "there's a glimmer, a faint light beginning to gather speed" on the prospects for the cruise industry's resumption of sailing and return to The Bahamas.

"I'm getting positive vibes that November is looking achievable possibly," he told Tribune Business. "Before we didn't know at all, but there seems to be some sort of rumblings that something is happening, and potentially, possibly some time in November. But there's nothing we can do about that."

Mr D'Aguilar said the Ministry of Tourism had been in constant contact with the cruise industry over its shore and on-boarding health protocols. While the cruise lines had indicated The Bahamas will be "the country of choice for their first sailing", he acknowledged this would only involve their private islands initially followed by heavily-controlled tours to minimise passengers' COVID-19 exposure.

Nassau Cruise Port, in its $150m bond offering projections earlier this year, forecast that the cruise industry would return to Prince George Wharf after “six months of nothing” in the 2020 fourth quarter with much-reduced passenger numbers.

Some 635,000 cruise arrivals were forecast to come during a final quarter that includes the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. “In the first quarter we handled on average 76,000 passengers a week,” Mr Maura told Tribune Business at the time. “In the fourth quarter we’re looking at handling approximately 48,000 passengers a week. That’s after six months of nothing....

“We said we’re going to look at the fourth quarter. I have spoken to, and had the benefit of speaking with, every cruise line that comes to The Bahamas. They say The Bahamas is significant and strategic in their return to the water.

“They see themselves calling on The Bahamas first because of the three to four-day cruises, enabling them to offer two to three calls in the same itinerary, and with only one head (departure) tax needing to be paid."