WHAT is the real price of COVID-19?

It’s a question we ask because, while we have daily tallies of the number of new cases of COVID, the latest confirmed deaths – with another five reported in today’s Tribune – and the number of people in hospital, that is not the whole picture.

You see, the hospitals are full – with 147 COVID patients in hospital according to the latest update, and 19 of those in intensive care.

If all those beds are full, then it means there is no room for people with other conditions. If a heart patient needs intensive care, is there room? If someone is involved in a traffic accident, can they be taken to hospital for treatment? Have people delayed seeing the doctor because of COVID concerns, and does that lead to something being missed that could otherwise have been treatable? Are surgeries being delayed?

In yesterday’s Tribune, Dr Duane Sands hinted at the problem, saying that it is difficult to treat cases at Princess Margaret Hospital because there is “no room at the inn.”

He even said that some of those unable to be treated were critically ill, particularly from the Family Islands “and we can’t bring them in.”

Over at Doctors Hospital, there has been talk of who gets to go on a ventilator, and who doesn’t – and that’s not just COVID patients, but all patients.

Dr Sands talked of one patient he would ordinarily have sent to the intensive care unit – but there were no beds.

He said: “If you come in with a chest pain now you may end up being sent home even though you are having a heart attack because the system doesn’t have the capacity to function that it ideally functions and so are you having patients suffer or die as a result of the impact of COVID? The answer is probably yes.”

In today’s Tribune, a similar concern is raised by funeral directors – with the president of the Funeral Directors Association, Kirsch Ferguson, estimating that in the past few weeks “there has been up to 30 to 50 percent increase in deaths”. He cites not just COVID, but “the domino effect of persons not being able to access proper healthcare or hospitalisation during this time”.

You can see the effect in our very pages. Today, The Tribune’s obituaries section, a 48-page supplement, is full – and in fact we have 12 more pages in our main section of obituaries in addition to that.

In many countries, there is a count kept of what is called “excess deaths”. That is the number of deaths above what would be expected. For example, looking back at the number of deaths in August of each year gone by, you can get an estimate of what you would expect this year. If you take out the COVID deaths from the actual total, you might well see a significantly higher number still – and that would be the excess deaths.

It shows the strain on resources – both in terms of physical items such as intensive care beds, and on the people within the healthcare system pushed to their limit battling the disease.

It’s an area that could do with a bit more clarity from the government – are we collecting these statistics here, and if so then share them with the public. Then we can see a true picture – which in turn might encourage more people to take the steps they need to keep themselves alive.

After a spike of COVID cases in Abaco, for example, there now seems to be a rush for vaccines – if only this had been earlier. Seeing the true picture might encourage more that now is the time to act.

Union promise

PLP leader Philip Davis has struck a deal with union leaders. He gets union leaders planning to go to every church and urge parishioners to vote PLP, and union leaders get… well, it’s a promise that’s not sealed yet.

The deal he has made needs to go to the PLP leadership council for ratification. He says it has his support and he sees no difficulties in it passing, but it’s not signed, sealed and delivered just yet. It’s a promise.

Promises are things that politicians make every election, of course. In this column yesterday, we took Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis to task for his failure to live up to his promise of a fixed election date, for example.

This particular promise by Mr Davis is to ensure long-standing union issues are resolved, we are told. In addition, he says the PLP has committed to an increase in minimum wage and the implementation of a liveable wage.

All of that comes with a price tag – one we don’t know, and one that – given the size of the national debt at present – might be hard to pay.

Still, Mr Davis says the signing is not a “gimmick” for votes, although it is not entirely clear at first glance what concrete issues will be resolved as a result of this deal. The timescale is also not clear – when will the leadership ratify this? Will it be this side of the election or after the vote is done and the party has already got its end of the deal?

Election season is full of ups and downs, of promises made that might not get kept afterwards. Unless there are definite details, complete with where the money is coming from, be cautious of vague promises, from whichever party they come.