By TANYA SMITH-CARTWRIGHT

tsmith-cartwright@tribunemedia.net

HOUSE of Assembly Speaker Halson Moultrie believes the Minnis administration is between a rock and a hard place with really no other choice but to call an early election.

Speculation has been rife in recent weeks that an early election will be called soon, instead of next May when it is due. However, Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis has downplayed this.

“I am of the view that the Prime Minister is reluctant to move early, but that he is hard pressed to,” Mr Moultrie said yesterday. “And, I believe that is because, based on the budget, the government would need to borrow a whole lot of money and based on the information I am aware of, the lending institutions seem to be demanding that the government gets a new mandate to be able to secure the type of loans or the amount of loans that are required.

“This pandemic seems to be rearing its head again, so I don’t think the government wants to go to a position where they have to ask the Governor General to make another proclamation of emergency after August 13 to take the country into lockdown and perhaps hotel closures.

“Based on its spending and deficit, the people feel that the government wants to go early and then amend all of the financial acts that were passed during the budget and increase the taxes after being re-elected. I suspect that no matter which party or independents becomes government, in the next Parliamentary session, taxes are very likely to be increased.”

On Monday, however, Dr Minnis denounced “false” claims from the opposition that he would increase taxes after a snap election.

On Sunday, Mr Moultrie predicted on Facebook that Parliament would be dissolved as early as yesterday and that the election will be called on August 17.

Yesterday, he explained his reasons for thinking this.

“When I saw the government sending the Parliament into recess for three months and allowing the Emergency Powers Orders to expire on August 13 within the middle of the recess, it became apparent to me that it is likely that there would be a snap election before the (House resumes on) September 22,” he said.

“The law basically gives the Prime Minister 21 days minimum after the dissolution of Parliament or 30 days maximum for the set election date. When I did my calculations and I did a minimum of 21 days on the dissolution of Parliament this week it seems to be bringing us within the framework of August 10. When you go to the 30 days, it brings you to the anniversary of the FNM coming to Parliament which is August 19.

“Based on those calculations - as well as the fact that the FNM party itself seems to be in full election mode - I was of the view that the House would be dissolved today (Tuesday). You know the Prime Minister is a person who once you publicly predict something he is likely to go with a different date just to prove you wrong. It’s likely that he may not go today, but I suspect he has to go by next week if he is going early.”

With regards to opposition leader, Philip “Brave” Davis having similar predictions, Mr Moultrie said Mr Davis’ information on a possible early election came from various Family Islands and international sources with respect to Bahamians being able to vote overseas and the advance poll. He said everything is basically prepared for an election.

Asked if he felt the FNM could pull off a win with an early election, he said it’s possible but “word on the ground” is not favourable towards Dr Minnis.

“It’s possible, first of all, if the official opposition is not prepared,” he said. “It’s possible also that all of the opposition votes can be scattered amongst the number of third parties and independents running. It is also possible if the FNM can maintain its base support.

“The word on the ground is not favourable to the Prime Minister, himself. It’s not so much against the FNM party, but the word on the ground is that the people want to get rid of Minnis. In my estimation there is widespread hatred of the Prime Minister. I think that handling of the pandemic is the cause.

“Even right to this week the way it’s being handled with the Prime Minister announcing that he is prepared to ship Bahamians out of The Bahamas for vaccines even while demanding the change of policies which, in my estimation, is discriminatory so that people are willing to get vaccinated. They have (nearly) run out of vaccines in the process. This is not a good time for The Bahamas.”

He also said: “The people believe that it is not in the best interest of the government to call the election early. They believe that if the election is called early, the FNM would not stand a chance. As I move about New Providence, I kind of get the sense that many people feel that if the government calls the election early, Minnis would have come in by a landslide and he would go out by a landslide.”

Mr Moultrie, who quit the FNM earlier this year, said from his perspective, he thinks Dr Minnis receives poor legal and political advice and is very stubborn towards good advice.