By KHRISNA RUSSELL

Tribune Chief Reporter

krussell@tribunemedia.net

THE country’s top infectious disease expert believes The Bahamas is on the brink of a third COVID-19 wave, as health officials remain on high alert over a sustained uptick in positive cases in recent weeks.

Dr Nikkiah Forbes, director of the National HIV/AIDS and Infectious Disease Programme at the Ministry of Health, told The Tribune yesterday it was “fully possible” that cases could skyrocket following the Easter holiday weekend with increased social interaction.

Much of the new cases have been travel related, she said.

“There is a sustained uptick in the number of cases and that is very concerning and there could be an increase in cases after the holiday weekend if we are not following the health instructions,” Dr Forbes said. “(It) is fully possible.”

This comes as health officials confirmed 15 positive cases on Sunday, 42 on Saturday and 34 on Friday for a total of 91 cases in just three days. The country has seen 9,091 cases to date.

Fourteen cases were recorded on Thursday, 33 on Wednesday, 18 on Tuesday, 12 on Monday and 14 last Sunday for a total of 167 last week. Thirty-one people are currently in the hospital.

Health officials confirmed 160 cases the previous week.

The Tribune understands that COVID-19 numbers have concerned the government, sparking discussions at the Cabinet level over whether certain islands may now need tighter restrictions.

Asked if she was of the view that certain islands that have seen cases increase should be subject to tighter restrictions, Dr Forbes said this will depend on how people conduct themselves in the coming days.

“Well, we are at risk for having a third wave,” she said. “We could be on the brink of a third wave, but we’re not quite there yet nationwide. What happens in the next week or two depends on what we do now.

“We always want to prevent COVID-19. We know what works by now and that is following the public health instructions.

“If we’re all doing that well, we’ll keep the curve flattened. Health officials never want to put in place restrictive measures that are difficult to live with, that are bad for the economy and socialisation.

“Countries that have had to put strict measures in place were not able to bring their third and fourth waves under control. In fact they were growing and they were in situations where health capacity was beyond the level that the health system could manage and lots of people were dying.

“So, we have to balance all of that as we are on high alert about the number of new cases that we’re seeing.

“As you can see there have not been any immediate emergency restrictions put into place. Of course that all depends on what will happen with the curves and this current outbreak.”

Officials are expected to receive 33,600 more doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine tomorrow.

The expected batch of vaccines from the World Health Organisation’s COVAX Facility represents the first tranche of 100,800 doses earmarked for The Bahamas and pre-paid through the PAHO Revolving Fund.

Dr Forbes said this is exciting news, but acknowledged that vaccine hesitancy is a major issue.

“We know vaccine hesitancy is a global phenomenon that happens worldwide especially with COVID-19 vaccines for various reasons.

“We know why it happens and we’re doing our best to keep the facts out there about these vaccines. They’re safe and effective and they can prevent COVID-19 across the board.

“All of these vaccines prevent getting severe COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths. It’s very good that COVID-19 can be vaccinated against.”

On Sunday, the Office of the Prime Minister said around 63 percent of people who have received the vaccine are age 60 and older.

Forty-two percent of people who received the vaccine were male and 58 percent are female.

The statement said vaccinations will now take place in Eleuthera this week.

Grand Bahama’s vaccine programme will also resume after appointments were cancelled on Saturday due to oversubscription.

The country received its first batch of COVID-19 vaccines on March 10 —which were 20,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine donated by the government of India.