THE comments of James Smith about our economy shouldn’t come as a surprise.

It doesn’t take a former Finance Minister and ex-Central Bank governor – two titles Mr Smith has had in his career – to recognise the amount of spending to cope with the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian and the ongoing costs of the pandemic.

But as Mr Smith says, “From a policy perspective we’re going to be facing enormous challenges for a couple of years out unless something extraordinary from the outside comes in to change our outlook. Bahamians can only cross their fingers and hope that, like in the past, a small miracle happens. It’s not reflected in the policy positions from my point of view.”

A miracle isn’t something you can count on – so if the reality of the situation isn’t reflected in the policies, then some of those promises simply aren’t going to happen.

One of the areas Mr Smith points out is the number of people working in the civil service. The FNM says no civil servants were laid off during COVID’s peak, while the PLP are said to have “no appetite” for spending cuts. So if neither side is cutting spending, where are the savings coming from as we continue to bring in less money as a result of the pandemic?

And, of course, on the election trail, candidates will be reluctant to tell public workers that their job might be gone in cutbacks after the pandemic – but that might be the truth.

Take a look at the nation’s Budget and already the amount we are spending on servicing debt is the highest item in there.

You know yourself if you have a loan that you have to pay it back. The same with the nation. And if your income drops while the debt rises? Well, that can only go on so long.

So are we being promised cake tomorrow when we barely have enough for bread?

Mr Smith said: “Sometimes you have to be open and transparent, and treat people as intelligent and articulate. It’s a challenge that many of us are prepared to meet, and there is no point in sugar coating it because it will reveal itself in short order.”

He added: “How much of the debt is from international agencies, how much is from private investors? What is the tenor of the debt – is it five, ten, 15 years? To lower your debt service charges, you might have to reschedule it or stretch it out so that the monthly payments are less or interest-only.

“You need to give yourself some breathing room until tourism rebounds. You’re looking at flow, not the stock. Debt servicing is already the highest line item in the Budget, and it’s going to be by far the highest item in the Budget.”

As we go into this election, the nation stands at a precarious point. Whoever wins will have to address our finances. That might very well mean changes in taxation to bring more money in to reduce the deficit. So if a candidate tells you there won’t be any changes in taxes, they had better be forthcoming about where the money to pay our debts will be conjured up from.

Famously, political advisor James Carville quipped in the 1992 US election, “It’s the economy, stupid” in terms of what was important in the election. It’s the same here – alongside dealing with the pandemic because that’s holding back the economy too.

This isn’t a game, and we need to have very clear answers about how our would-be leaders plan to deal with the very serious problems that lie ahead.

Don’t let them wriggle off the hook.