By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian workers are unlikely to enjoy an “equitable rebound” in employment conditions post-COVID, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is warning, with the pandemic likely to have worsened existing skills gaps and mismatches.

The multilateral lender, in unveiling a $150,000 initiative “to design a talent pipeline that closes skill gaps” in key economic sectors, said COVID-19 had only served to exacerbate long-standing weak labour market conditions that resulted in one out of every five job seekers aged under 25 years-old being unable to find work pre-pandemic.

Justifying the project, which it said will “support workers who are vulnerable to structural and technological changes” by equipping with the skills demanded by employers, the IDB added: “Labour market conditions in The Bahamas have been weak for many years.

“Throughout the previous decade, unemployment rates in The Bahamas remained in the double digits, largely due to a continued overhang after the global financial crisis (of 2008-2009). Youth unemployment rates have been persistently higher. For instance, in May 2019, the unemployment rate of individuals aged 15-25 reached 20 percent, exactly twice the national unemployment rate. This already difficult situation dramatically worsened with the pandemic.”

The Bahamas’ “extreme reliance on the tourism sector” for employment, with around two-thirds of jobs dependent on the sector - a ratio that the IDB said “is high even for Caribbean standards”, leading the region - made COVID-19’s impact “especially dramatic”.

While no official unemployment survey has been conducted since the pandemic began, at the peak of lockdowns, border closures and other COVID restrictions it was thought that more than half the Bahamian workforce had been laid-off or furloughed. The economy’s subsequent re-opening has slashed the jobless figures, but unemployment is still thought to remain stubbornly high in the double digits - and above pre-pandemic levels.

“This economic recovery, however, may not translate into an equitable rebound of the labour market,” the IDB warned. “Structural changes in the labour market due to the pandemic may have permanently affected the demand for certain occupations and skills, and some workers may find limited opportunities for reemployment.

“Before the pandemic, significant gaps between the skills of the workforce and the current and future needs of the labour market had led to an uneven dependence on foreign talent and skills, creating tensions between labour and Immigration policies.

“Moreover, low returns for local skills stimulate outbound migration. Approximately two-thirds of Bahamians with a tertiary education degree migrate to the US, Canada or Europe. To the extent that the pandemic may lead to structural changes in the labour market, making some occupations and skills redundant, these mismatches can persist or even become more pronounced.”