By LEANDRA ROLLE

Tribune Staff Reporter

lrolle@tribunemedia.net

NEARLY half of The Bahamas’ population or 184,326 residents are exposed to storm surge, with research experts warning that the number is likely to increase due to rising sea levels.

Dr Erin Hughey, director of the Pacific Disaster Centre (PDC), made the revelation as she presented the latest findings from the National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment (NDPBA) for The Bahamas during the Disaster Risk Reduction Summit at the Baha Mar resort yesterday.

The NDPBA is an assessment of a country’s exposure and vulnerability to multi-hazard risks.

It was completed by PDC, an applied research centre under the University of Hawaii, in partnership with the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in May 2022.

 Dr Hughey, in unveiling the assessment’s results, also revealed updated data on sea level rise which shows that by 2050, some 23,600 residents in the country will be exposed to rising sea levels.

 “By 2050, there needs to be a plan to deal with 23,000 residents in those areas that will be impacted,” she said.

 The assessment’s findings also found that 24 percent of the population, equating to 92,786 residents, are exposed to flooding and that no one is safe from tropical cyclone or hurricane force winds exposure.

 “Some of the results and I think everyone is aware that 100 per cent of your population is exposed to tropical cyclone force winds,” she said.

 “You have 48 percent, almost half of your population that right now not even taking into consideration sea level rise, is exposed to storm surge. That’s going to increase and we need to be aware of that.

 “You got a quarter of your population exposed to flooding. Wildfires often are underestimated but 12 percent of your population (are exposed) with climate change again going to increase.”

 As it relates to landslides, the study’s results show that 5,175 people in the country are exposed, representing 1.3 percent of the country’s population.

 The findings also note the islands that are most exposed to multi-hazard, which can include hurricane winds, storm surge, flooding, wildfire among other disasters.

 Topping the list for “very high” is Grand Bahama followed by Abaco and then Andros.

 New Providence, Eleuthera and Acklins are listed as “high” for exposure.

 The study also looks at island vulnerability, which “measures the physical, environmental, social and economic conditions and processes that increase susceptibility of communities and systems to the damaging effects of hazards.”

 “Vulnerability data are designed to capture the multi-dimensional nature of poverty, the inequality in access to resources due to gender and the ability of a given area to adequately support the population,” the assessment also sas.

Cat Island, Spanish Wells and Long Island are listed in the top three for island vulnerability.

Other key areas of focus of the assessment include island capacity, logistics capacity and coping capacity.

“So, island capacity, we’re really looking at those societal and institutional resources. So, what makes you unique in each of the family islands?” Dr Hughey said during her presentation yesterday.

“And so, we looked at things like environmental capacity, which is absolutely critical but also that transportation and the communication. These are vital for disaster response.”

“Can we communicate? Can we connect? Are we able to provide health care? And so again, we looked at the results for that, and found San Salvador and we saw that Harbour Island and New Providence all had the highest capacity and some of that is related to unique attributes in those islands.”

Among those islands deemed “very low” for island capacity include Long Island, Cat Island, Acklins and Mayaguana.

She also said: “And then with logistics capacity, moving from point A to point B, right, the ability to ensure storage and movement, we looked at distance from seaports, airports and your warehouses and then we were able to pull in and see, of course, in New Providence, Grand Bahama and Abaco have the strongest (and) you’ve got the most diverse transportation and logistics capacity which makes sense.”

“But it means that when we look at things like Inagua and Mayaguana and Acklins that we really need to really put our attention in some of those areas so then the coping capacity overall, we have New Providence, Grand Bahama and the Exumas.”

In terms of island resilience, Dr Hughey added: “We said what regardless of the event, regardless of a hurricane, climate change or any other adverse impact, what is the resilience of this island, what are their vulnerabilities and coping capacities, their ability to deal with any type of disruption and we know that this start to makes sense where Grand Bahama and New Providence are at the top.”

The report also provides a detailed list of recommendations to help reduce disaster risk for the nation and a five-year plan to implement these recommendations.

They include updating the legal framework to support disaster preparedness, building human resources capacity, developing a national training and exercise programme for DRR, increasing family island resilience and resident capabilities, creating an evacuation and continuity or operations plans for all levels of government.

Other recommendations include fully incorporating NGO’s as well as the private sector into the national disaster risk management framework, improving and expanding the national shelter system, increasing information access and sharing among all disaster management stakeholders by integrating an early warning system and common operational platform among others.