• Hotels on five islands on track, to meet, or exceed 2019

• Offline inventory keeps Exuma and Eleuthera off-pace

• Competitive vacation rental pressures impact industry

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Half the Family Islands boast hotels already beating forecasts that they will post room revenues equivalent to 110 percent of pre-COVID levels in 2023, it was revealed yesterday.

Kerry Fountain, the Bahamas Out Island Promotion Board’s (BOIPB) executive director, told Tribune Business that resorts were either exceeding or matching both their 2023 targets and 2019’s pre-pandemic performance on five of the ten islands where it boasts member properties.

Based on figures for January and February 2023, he revealed that hotels on Abaco, Andros, Harbour Island, Acklins and San Salvador are ahead of predictions that they will achieve 100 percent of annual room nights sold, and 110 percent of room revenues, generated immediately before COVID hit.

Should those goals be realised, it would return the industry to a position matching - or exceeding - 2019 levels. Voicing optimism that this outcome will be realised, Mr Fountain said his confidence was based on increased airlift seat capacity for 2023, the removal of COVID-related travel restrictions that were still present in early 2022, and the return of group business via the meetings, incentives, conferences and events (MICE) segment.

While initially disappointed that two major Family Island markets, Eleuthera and Exuma, appeared to have under-performed during the winter tourism season’s start, he added that “lifting the hood” revealed this was due to room inventory at one major property on either island being taken offline.

The Promotion Board chief, though, warned that “everybody has to work in sync” if 2023’s ambitions are to be realised, and said hotels must find ways to distinguish themselves from - and offer a competitive advantage over - the rapidly expanding vacation rental market that is increasingly making inroads into their customer base.

“Last year, our goal in terms of room nights sold was to achieve 95 percent of what we did in 2019 and, in terms if room revenues, our goal was to achieve 86 percent of what we did in 2019,” Mr Fountain told Tribune Business of 2022’s targets.

“We did 84 percent of room nights sold. We were 11 percentage points below where we had projected in terms of room nights sold. For room revenues, we achieved 97 percent of what we achieved in 2019. Our goal was 86 percent, so we were 11 percentage points above our goal.

“Given this performance, we set our goals for 2023 at 100 percent of room nights sold compared to 2019, and 110 percent of room revenues compared to 2019. We felt these two goals will be realised based on the available seat capacity increase by American Airlines, Delta, Makers Air and Aztec Airways,” the Promotion Board chief continued.

“Despite the drop in seat count by Silver Airways, due to the pilot shortage they are experiencing, we also felt we would achieve these goals because it’s easier to travel to The Bahamas compared to 2022. In early 2022 we still had the Health Travel Visa in place and testing was required in major source markets. It’s much easier and less hassle.

“We also feel these goals are achievable because we are starting to see these meetings, incentives, conferences and groups - this business - coming back. You factor all that in, and that’s why we feel the goals of 100 percent room nights sold and 110 percent room revenues compared to 2019 are achievable. So, how are we doing?”

Based on data for January and February, as March numbers are still being submitted by the Promotion Board’s member properties, Mr Fountain said Andros, Abaco and Harbour Island - all of which are served by direct airlift from the US - are performing “way above 2019 in room nights sold and room revenue”.

He added: “I can say in the case of Andros that for those months it was hovering around 103 percent and 105 percent in room nights sold and room revenues, and Abaco and Harbour Island, their numbers were way above goal - way above 100 percent on room nights sold and way above 110 percent on room revenue.

“We also saw a pleasant surprise in the performance from Acklins and San Salvador. We’re not talking big numbers, but any increase means a lot for hoteliers on those islands. For the January to February period, Acklins and San Salvador, despite the challenges in getting people to those islands via Lynden Pindling International Airport, both are performing above goal and realising the numbers they did in 2019 compared to this year.

“Those five islands, and we only have members on ten islands, of Abaco, Andros, Acklins, Harbour Island and San Salvador, are performing above or just above 100 percent on room nights sold compared to 2019 and 110 percent in room revenue.”

As for the other five Family Islands where there are Promotion Board member properties, Mr Fountain said: “I was a bit disappointed at first in Exuma and Eleuthera’s numbers. Those two islands are not performing above and beyond expectations. They’re not hitting goals.”

However, once he “met with hoteliers and lifted the hood to determine why they were not performing up to expectations”, he learnt it was due to property-specific issues at one large member property on each island. “In the case of Eleuthera, the member has a lot of rooms out of inventory because of a lease contract,” Mr Fountain said. “If those rooms were back in inventory, Eleuthera would be performing like Abaco - way above goal.

“In the case of Exuma, all of our resorts are performing above goal but there is one big member that is not and that is dragging Exuma down. That is due to rooms being out of inventory due to an ongoing renovation programme. If you look at Long Island and Cat Island, Long Island is still suffering from airlift issues out of Nassau with Southern Air and Bahamasair.

“I feel Cat Island should be performing much better. We will be meeting with all hotel stakeholders to determine what the itch is. Based on anecdotal evidence, and based on the proportion of second home vacation rental guests going to Cat Island, we feel people are staying in hotels on their initial visit and coming back to stay in rental properties,” he added.

“If that is true, and it has to be determined, we’ll have to make some adjustments. We’ll have to determine what the competitive advantages are of staying in a hotel versus second home vacation rentals..... Hotels have to dig deeper to differentiate themselves from second home rentals. The demand for vacation rentals is continuing to grow, and they must ask themselves: What comparative advantage do I have as a hotel?’”

Mr Fountain said Bimini had performed below expectations for January and February because a “major member” was not operational, but had since opened on March 1, 2023. “As far as Bimini is concerned, we know we have to have more airlift on bigger aircraft out of south Florida,” he added. “Balearia, the fast ferry, will not be operating if they experience weather like we had last week.

“Tropic Ocean Airways has an eight-seater that flies in eight times’ a day, but that’s 64 people. We still need larger aircraft. We also note that, during peak season for Bimini, which is summer, while they do very well on weekends we need to come up with a strategy to figure out how to get some of those rooms filled mid-week.”