By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Super Value’s president yesterday said consumers “won’t be shocked” by food costs over the Christmas period as she voiced hope for price stability in 2024.

Debra Symonette told Tribune Business that food price inflation is “definitely not as bad as it was”, with increases having abated compared to the immediate post-COVID period and relatively few products increasing or decreasing in cost.

Speaking after one of Super Value’s major competitors, BISX-listed AML Foods, said it had witnessed “price deflation” in certain categories of products, she confirmed that such trends have yet to become broad-based when it comes to food costs but pledged: “If we get a break, the consumer will get a break.”

“The only item we have gone down on recently is corn beef, and that is because we had bought in such bulk that we got a good price on it, and we were able to offer customers a good price,” Ms Symonette told this newspaper. “And the only item we have gone up on in any significant amount recently is juice, like the Bluebird and McArthur’s, because the vendor went up on price.

“Otherwise, all of the other items have been remaining stable, which is very good. We are hoping this will continue, but we will not get our hopes up on prices that they will not go up in the New Year.” The Super Value president said that, as a country that imports at least 90 percent of what it consumes, The Bahamas is at the mercy of external forces such as global oil prices when it comes to the cost of goods.

Sir Franklyn Wilson, the Arawak Homes and Sunshine Holdings chairman, on Monday said AML Foods’ disclosure should “change the mood” and improve consumer confidence heading into 2024. However, Gavin Watchorn, AML Foods president and chief executive, in his report to shareholders signalled that the price decline is not widespread and gave no indication of whether it its sustainable.

And Ms Symonette indicated that price stability, rather than decreases, is likely to be the best consumers can hope for in the short-term. “There are certain items we may have seen slight decreases in, but there are others we are seeing increases in every now and then,” she explained. “I know eggs is one that decreased and is going up again slightly. I think we also saw a slight increase in sugar.

“It’s definitely not as bad as it was. It [inflation] hasn’t totally gone away but it’s certainly not as bad as it was. I guess that’s why we’re seeing some decreases here and there, and some remaining stable, with only a few maybe seeing increases.”

Asked what consumers can expect with Christmas food prices, Ms Symonette replied: “I would say there won’t be any significant increases. They won’t go into the store and be shocked because nothing would be that drastically different.

“We’re hoping that everything will remain pretty stable [in 2024]. You’ll just have these odd prices going up. It’s all going to depend on what happens in the world, and with this crazy inflation you never know what’s going to happen. Hopefully everything remains pretty stable.”

Any return to pre-COVID pricing is at least some way off, and may never happen. “It’s sometimes difficult, but not impossible, Ms Symonette added of price decreases. “I can certainly say that if we get a break, the consumer will get a break.

“We’re always trying to find the best prices possible, and there are vendors who come across good prices. For some reason they give us a better price, and we pass it on to consumers. COVID just had a major effect, and it’s taking a really long time for things to normalise. We’re still hoping for the best.”

The Super Value president, though, warned that as an importing country that produces little of what it consumes The Bahamas is vulnerable to having prices “dictated” by external producers and factors such as shipping and transportation costs. She added that Bahamian produce is no higher than 10 percent of the 13-store chain’s inventory.

“It would be nice some day if we could get all our goods locally, and if the farmers can provide all the goods to the extent we need them, but right now the quantity is just not there so we’re forced to import,” Ms Symonette told Tribune Business.

“We definitely try to support the local vendors as much as possible. We have a lot of them on our list, and they provide as much as they can, but with 13 stores they need to get the quantity up to the supply we need and meet the demand of all our consumers. While they’re doing their best, it’s just not got to the level at which it needs to be.

“We’ve always pushed ‘buy Bahamian’, and we still stand behind that. Definitely. We know the Government is trying to do something. I know they’re pushing this local farming thing, and hopefully we get somewhere and farmers will be able to provide more.”

Mr Watchorn, in reporting on AML Foods’ second quarter and half-year results for the six months to end-October 2023, said there were signs that food prices are falling “in certain categories” - though not across-the-board.

“Our second quarter performance was impacted by several external and internal challenges,” he told shareholders. “Customers’ average basket size remained depressed, declining by 6 percent during the period, impacting both sales and margin performance.

“We are now seeing price deflation in certain categories, and while this may impact the average ticket, we welcome the relief these adjustments will bring to our customers.” Sir Franklyn seized upon it as something that could alter “the sour mood” among Bahamian consumers that has resulted from the squeeze imposed by higher living costs, which has resulted in many struggling to cover every-day bills and make ends meet.

“It’s significant,” he added of Mr Watchorn’s comments. “I thought that’s certainly different from what we’ve listened to for the last extended period of time. When you have this narrative about inflation and the cost of living being high and climbing and so forth, inevitably it impacts consumer confidence.

“You can almost talk yourself into a recession. You can almost talk yourself into it because of inflation. To the extent there is this changed position is very material because it’s happening in the holiday season, and it’s only a matter of time before it impacts other areas and affects the likes of housing and construction.

“It could change that mood. It’s a significant signal that impacts consumer confidence. If we just get a sense that there’s going to be some abatement on inflation that’s very significant.”