• Diversification ‘limited’ by UoB course choices

• IDB report: Just 7% in technology and science

• Education challenge more than ‘throwing money’

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas’ ability to develop high-value industries and diversify its economy are impaired by “worryingly low” graduation rates at its sole university with just 7 percent of students studying science and technology-related courses.

An Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) study on government spending in key areas, such as education, health and social security, found that improved access and greater efficiency at the University of The Bahamas (UoB) and the country’s other tertiary education institutions is vital if it aspires to match the likes of Singapore as a true international business centre.

The report, dated February 2022 but only just released, said a relatively small number of Bahamians enter tertiary schooling despite the country’s relatively high per capita investment in university/college education outstripping that of many high income developed nations.

“Gross tertiary enrollment of 18-21 year-olds in 2019-2020 (using 2019 census projections) is 18 percent, which is far below the average for the Latin American and Caribbean region, 54 percent, and the average of 79 percent in the high income country grouping in 2019. A remarkably low share of University of The Bahamas students are male (27 percent in fall 2019), possibly due to poor secondary education survival rates,” the IDB study noted.

Noting the disparity with female students, the report added that the Government in 2019-2020 was subsidising, via the taxpayer, $11,320 or 78 percent of the $14,509 total costs for a student to attend UoB. This included tuition fees and other cost centres.

“While UoB provides several courses appropriate for the job market in The Bahamas, just 7 percent of students studied math, physics and technology, although chemistry, environmental and life sciences is the third largest subject after business and nursing and allied health,” the IDB report said. “There is a course on computer information systems, but not computer science.

“This might follow on from concerning results for math at high school level. Limited graduate counts, and perhaps quality of some courses, may limit The Bahamas’ ability to engage in high-value industries and diversify national income sources, taking advantage of The Bahamas’ close proximity to the world’s pre-eminent economy (the US).

“UoB graduation rates as a share of enrollment are worryingly low, and fell in 2018-2019 to just 12 percent of enrollment. In 2019-2020, graduates counts totalled 67 percent of new starts. These two statistics suggest a combination of significant efficiency losses from both dropout and repetition.”

The IDB study’s implications are that The Bahamas is not producing enough well-qualified, highly-educated graduates for the technology-based industries that are viewed as the key growth drivers in an increasingly digital global economy. This, in turn, has potential negative consequences for The Bahamas’ bid to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in such sectors as well as potentially forcing these industries, at least in the initial stages, to rely on a more expatriate workforce.

“In the past, countries that have transformed international business centre activity into high levels of domestic prosperity – the Republic of Ireland and Singapore are outstanding examples – sometimes captured the gains through high quality, high access tertiary education. The Bahamas has made substantial investments in tertiary education, but access is low and efficiency could improve,” the report argued.

“The exposure of The Bahamas to automation of workforces and other future vulnerabilities is high. On the one hand, tourism and finance appear relatively underexposed to potential automation using today’s technologies. On the other hand, food and accommodation services, the constituent parts of many tourism jobs, are susceptible, with elementary occupations the most susceptible to automation. Health, education and personal care occupations are also highly vulnerable.”

Elsewhere, the Government’s spending on education measured poorly against high income countries and Caribbean rivals. Pre-school spending per student, as a share of GDP per capita, stood at 6 percent for this nation compared to higher income nations. For primary and secondary education, this stood at 13 percent for both, below the equivalent in both Barbados and the Latin American and Caribbean region.

“Access to education is low by international and regional standards for all levels except primary education. Secondary enrollment ratios are among the lowest of any high income country, and pre-primary and tertiary enrollment ratios also lag comparator groups. Even achieving the 85 percent high school graduation target set by the Government would leave The Bahamas well below its regional peers,” the IDB report found, noting the fall-out for workforce productivity.

Advising The Bahamas against simply “throwing money” at its education challenges, the study added: “Quality education is a challenge throughout the system, and one that appears to affect labour market outcomes. Increasing spending levels on wages and infrastructure is not likely to tackle education quality issues.

“Careful investment selection is more important than just throwing money at the sector – although additional resources will help with increasing access for pre-primary. Quality is not solved by just reducing the student:teacher ratios, which on average are low.”

Pointing to poor exam performance, the IDB report said: “Despite recent improvements, 37 percent of children scoring below a ‘D’ in the GLAT (Grade Level Assessment Test) in May 2019 is extremely concerning, and stores up problems later in the system. The Government secondary system does not seem to offer a post-BGCSE qualification, which reduces The Bahamas’ ability to continue to compete globally, or to get the most out of its generous tertiary spending.

“Even before Dorian and COVID-19 impacts are taken into account, and even after recent improvements, high school graduation rates are below every OECD country except Costa Rica. Tertiary education efficiency and effectiveness has much potential for improvement....

“Education access ratios are concerningly low for secondary. Gross enrollment for secondary education (80 percent in 2016-2017, which is the highest estimate across the four datasets examined) is well below the average rate for the upper-middle income group of countries, a group of countries which all have annual GDP per capita lower than $12,695.

“The secondary gross enrollment rate was 80 percent in 2016-2017, down from 90 percent in the census year 2010. The Bahamas struggles with high school graduation rates, which fall below 37 of 38 OECD countries.”