By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamians “finally have some hope” that food price inflation is easing, Super Value’s president says, while admitting that the past two years have been “scary” for both retailers and consumers.

Debra Symonette told Tribune Business the 13-store supermarket chain is hopeful that food costs are “stabilising” and may even decrease over the rest of 2023 although she warned that any decline will not be sudden or dramatic.

Confirming that she had never before experienced such rapid, broad-based price increases of the kind seen in COVID-19’s immediate aftermath, which were worsened by subsequent supply chain bottlenecks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she added that there had been a time when Super Value and others in the sector “didn’t know where it was going to end”.

With many Bahamians still “crying” about the cost of living crisis, and squeeze imposed on household budgets by higher food prices and other necessities, Ms Symonette told this newspaper: “We are seeing some relief, and getting some relief, from the prices.

“Eggs have decreased. We advertise the specials every week, and eggs have come down greatly. We’ve specialled them for $4.99. They were shooting way up, mainly because of the bird flu, but farmers have recovered from that,” she said. “We’ve been able to sell them for $4.99 right now, and next week we hope to sell them even lower. We’re hoping they come down to what we want them to be.

“We’ve also seen a decrease in corn beef prices. We have corn beef for $2.69; that’s a certain brand. There are some brands even cheaper than that. Even the meat, we’re seeing the prices.... poultry is stabilising, and pork and beef are actually going down a little as well as produce.

“The only thing that we are seeing an increase in rice. That is probably because of the ongoing war [in Ukraine] and issues with the export of the wheat.” But, while there is every indication that food inflation is starting to ease, and the persistent rise in many prices taper-off, it is highly unlikely costs will suddenly plunge to where they were in early 2020 pre-COVID.

“We’re very hopeful that everything is going to stabilise or even decrease,” Ms Symonette said. “It’s going to be gradual, month by month. You’ll see it drop, or won’t see any increase. It’s going to be very beneficial to consumers. When we do get a good price we will be able to pass them on to the customer. We know they need some relief, so we are anxious to pass that on.

“It’s not as bad as it was. We don’t have the supply issues. They have eased a lot. We’ve gotten a lot of relief from that. We’re basically getting what we want on time. We source from as many vendors as possible to ensure we get the best possible price and can also offer variety. If one price does not suit your pocket, we have other brands. If prices are too high on one, get another that is more affordable.”

Ms Symonette admitted that the Bahamian food distribution industry, both retailers and wholesalers, has been in uncharted territory since COVID-19 struck and unable to do much to influence food price inflation given that this nation imports most of what it consumes and is therefore largely a price taker exposed to external shocks.

“In my time I’ve never seen it this bad,” she told Tribune Business of food costs. “We were always having increases; increases from this supplier, the other supplier. It was scary because we didn’t know where it was going to end. We’re finally hearing something positive. It’s been a while, but there’s some hope finally.

“We’re hoping that food prices remain stable, and some the products actually have decreases in prices. We’re seeing a stabilisation. We’re going to have to see what the suppliers are saying. We haven’t got any notice to expect any increase, so that’s a good sign, apart from rice. We’ve been told that’s going up, but they haven’t said exactly by how much. We’re waiting for them to give us a price.”

Super Value, and its rivals, sought to counter food inflation by stocking up in advance at lower prices where they could, as well as sourcing from new suppliers able to offer the most competitive terms and rates. “We’re very confident, very confident,” Ms Symonette said. “We really fell good about the future, and prices coming down and being able to offer our customers some relief.

“We have a lot of people who are just crying every time you listen. They’re saying the prices are so high. I’m sure they’re going to welcome this with open arms. Now they are able to buy a little more. Bahamian food security, and being able to produce more of what the country eats locally, have assumed increasing importance post-COVID, and Ms Symonette said Super Value will buy more from local farmers if they can produce the consistent quality and quantity required.

“The supply chain issues created by COVID showed us it’s very important we don’t have to depend on all these imports,” she added. “If we can start producing locally, and in the quantity required, that would be a good thing. Right now we support as many local farmers as we can but the quantity is just lacking. They can’t supply all our needs. We still have to go outside The Bahamas, but if they are able to do it, we will definitely support them.”

However, Philip Beneby, the Retail Grocers Association’s (RGA) president, warned that food price volatility has not gone away. “There are still items that are on the rise, and it fluctuates,” he explained. “Sometimes it moves from item to item. The other week it was lettuce and eggs. Eggs are still high, and lettuce is down a bit. It fluctuates.

“We haven’t seen any decrease in anything; not yet. The inflation around the world is still the same. My daughter has just come out of Panama, and the prices are a bit lower than here. Those prices which we were used to seeing are not there any more.” Mr Beneby forecast that, while food prices will likely stabilise, they will hold and remain constant at their current levels.