Report: Dire warning for The Bahamas if temps rise by 1.5 degrees celsius

By JADE RUSSELL

Tribune Staff Reporter

jrussell@tribunemedia.net

THE country faces the threat of intensified tropical cyclones, sea level rise and declining freshwater resources if global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, a new report has warned.

The report, “Adapting to climate change challenging for The Bahamas if 1.5 (degrees) C limit crossed,” released by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 funded Provide project, has dire predictions for The Bahamas in the face of climate change.

A key threat to The Bahamas if the global threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius is crossed is intensified tropical cyclones; the report noted wind speed and rainfall are projected to increase.

“Projections of increased intensity of tropical cyclones due to climate change are a major hazard for the country. Climate modelling of projected changes in tropical storms suggest that rainfall associated with tropical cyclones could increase by 20-30 percent and that maximum wind speeds could increase by 2-11 percent,” the report said.

Sea level rise was another hazard mentioned in the report, due to more than 80 percent of The Bahamas’ land surface area being less than one metre above sea level.

The sea level rise was described as an “existential threat” for coastal communities.

“Sea level rise projections for the Caribbean by 2100 relative to the 1980- 1999 mean span a large range, from an increase of 0.13 metres to 1.45 metres.”

In terms of changes in precipitation, it is projected for The Bahamas to have longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons. However, the report explained the change in rainfall could have a serious impact on the water sector.

The impact can be felt due to the country being dependent on the replenishment of groundwater aquifers through precipitation, since there is a lack of sources for surface water.

Additionally, ocean acidification and warming are also potential worries, which the report noted are a threat for coastal ecosystems.

The Bahamas especially is at risk with five percent of the world’s coral being found in the country and having the world’s third longest barrier reef.

“Projections indicate that if global temperatures exceed 1.5 C of warming, approximately 99 percent of coral reefs will be at risk of destruction,” the report said.

The report said these potential outcomes can have an effect on water security and tourism as well.

“As a result of several hazards, including changes to precipitation patterns and sea level rise, The Bahamas is expected to face significant risks to water security. Freshwater resources are already finite and inadequate, requiring seawater reverse osmosis which currently supplies more than 50 percent of The Bahamas’ potable water supply (The Government of The Bahamas 2018).

“Declining freshwater availability and drought are significant risks with particularly high risks for the southernmost islands where reverse osmosis technologies are less feasible due to small economies of scale,” the report noted.

The report also showed sea level rise is projected to increase the risk of the contamination of freshwater because of its effect on the island’s groundwater lenses.

Intense weather events have a risk of damaging wastewater treatment and collection systems and flood septic tanks and increase the likelihood of contaminating groundwater.

Additionally, the report outlined the projected impact of different category hurricanes on tourism infrastructure such as Category 1 having 34 percent impact, Category 3 having a 69 percent impact, and a Category 5 storm having an 83 percent impact.

“Tourism, the main economic sector for The Bahamas, is also projected to be at high risk. Most tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties within the zone increases as sea levels rise.”

The report continued: “With 1m of sea level rise, a Category 1 hurricane is projected to impact 34 percent of the tourism infrastructure on New Providence. A Category 3 hurricane will affect 69 percent of infrastructure and a Category 5 storm will affect 83 percent of tourism infrastructure.

“Additionally, properties are also at risk of coastal erosion with over 60 percent of infrastructure being located within 100 metres of the coastline. Given the economic importance of tourism for The Bahamas, and for New Providence in particular, the risks of climate change have far-reaching implications for economic development.”

Comments

bahamianson says...

Tell it to china , the united.states.and India. Like everything else; we can't do diddly squat about it. So, stop winning about this. Even if we stopped burning car fuel, stopped using every other thing; we will not make a.ripple in thus enormous problem.

Posted 10 March 2023, 5:54 p.m. Suggest removal

avidreader says...

I love the way these percentage figures are thrown around. How very American! Perhaps these overpaid members of international bodies will set an example for we peons by using sailing ships to travel to their high level meetings instead of using private jets burning aviation kerosene otherwise known as Jet A1 in their turbine engines. Politicians rarely talk about uncontrolled population growth as a contributor to increased consumption of fossil fuels. Instead they continue to carry on about living without basic resources required by the vast majority of humanity. Don't believe for one moment that the big oil companies will wean the world off of fossil fuels while they still have access to ever increasing oil deposits. When the youth of the USA was busy protesting against the Vietnam War wasn't it the late Richard Nixon who queried whether it would be possible to interest the young people in trying to save the California condor?

Posted 11 March 2023, 3:24 p.m. Suggest removal

tom1912 says...

The thing is that the data for the past few years suggests that severe weather events have not increased throughout the world, notwithstanding that we did not have weather satellites until much after the 1960s, so the hurricanes in the mid Atlantic as last year and the years before that never made landfall would not have been taken in to account or even known existed, in the initial starting base!
A lot of flooding around the world is as a result of humans building and living on flood plains and of course deforestation.

Posted 12 March 2023, 5:35 a.m. Suggest removal

ThisIsOurs says...

Nobody is going to do anything about climate change. It would cost too much and interrupt to many economies. They "might" throw a couple million here and there to appear as if they're contributing.... look at Prince Charles, once he became king he didnt even show up to COP27. Noone is going to do anything. Look at the Bahamas the biggest hypocrite going wholesale after cryptocurrency while appearing at every international microphone available asking for help against climate. Has anyone at the ministry researched cryptocurrency and energy? Noone is going to do anything because climate change is "*air*", noone can touch it or feel it, and after one abnormal storm is over people forget. Money on the other hand is constantly making

Posted 12 March 2023, 7:12 a.m. Suggest removal

Porcupine says...

The placement of this article, at the very bottom of the news page, as well as the high school level of comments below it, tells one everything they need to know about the future of The Bahamas. The mentality, of taking everything you can for yourself, while screwing those around you, and then blaming everyone else, is the perfect solution to the realities on the table. Good job Bahamas

Posted 12 March 2023, 7:44 a.m. Suggest removal

hrysippus says...

You seem to have touched a nerve with bilingual RabidEater, I wonder why? Too much FauxNews viewing for him, perhaps?

Posted 12 March 2023, 9:55 p.m. Suggest removal

ThisIsOurs says...

Lost by your comment.

I know I've been hearing discussions about climate change most of my life, and from an online search amazingly the discussions have been going on for centuries way before our time, but according to history.com:

"*The early 1980s would mark a sharp increase in global temperatures. Many experts point to 1988 as a critical turning point when watershed events placed global warming in the spotlight*" -history.com

the one common factor over the course of those generational discussions: no country does anything significant...

If you wanted a subtle but almost earth shattering personification of that nothing it was the surprising absence of one of the greatest and most influential proponents, king Charles, from COP27, once he gained true power.

This isnt to say that climate change isnt real. I whole heartedly believe it is. From time to time I make a biblical reference not as a zealot but because it has some relevance even if you take it as "*just a fairy tale*" (which I dont)... if you want to see what climate change WILL do, just read revelations. *The earth will move off its axis, stars will fall, mountains will move out of their places.. and woe to those who live in the "isles*"... that's us on these tiny pieces of rock btw. But for the average money making power country this is and will always be "*air*". Closer to home if you want to know the Bahamas' true conviction on climate change, look at Ragged Island and go search for the fill from all the hills we cut and are cutting down..

you seriously believe this administration (or any prior) believes in climate change when they allowed someone to cut down an entire hill in Fox Hill a month ago? Everytime I drive past the thought goes through my head that that hill could have saved 1000 people

You may not like to hear it, but if we elect the leaders we've as always elected through the same process we've always used, the Bahamas will do nothing about climate change. To be honest I dont know if who we looking for exists

Posted 13 March 2023, 2:10 a.m. Suggest removal

avidreader says...

How do you know the educational level of those making comments? How obnoxious! I for one am a university graduate who is bilingual. Not everyone is convinced by the climate change Casandras. Research the great hurricane of 1780. The Bahamas cannot be classified as a large contributor to global pollution. Let you champagne socialists ride the donkey and allow the rest of us to have a little comfort.

Posted 12 March 2023, 8:25 a.m. Suggest removal

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