By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian resorts were yesterday said to be “optimistic” that the peak Christmas and New Year period “may even surpass” 2023’s performance, as one executive said: “We needed this light at the end of the tunnel.”

Joy Jibrilu, the Nassau and Paradise Island Promotion Board’s chief executive, told Tribune Business that member properties such as Atlantis and Baha Mar are confident of matching the prior year’s festive performance and hopeful for more given the rebound from a “soft” fall 2024.

Acknowledging the “headwinds” created by the US presidential election run-up and active hurricane season, which devastated parts of Florida and other key source markets, she disclosed that hotel room rates on average fell “by around $20” during the 2024 third quarter as travel demand for The Bahamas and other destinations softened

However, Mrs Jibrilu told this newspaper that rates have now “bounced back” to match 2023’s “incredible numbers against industry expectations to signal a robust Christmas and New Year season with New Providence’s hotel properties - both large and small - “reporting strong bookings” into 2025.

Family Island resorts and tourism are also confident of a Christmas, New Year and early 2025 rebound. Kerry Fountain, the Bahama Out Island Promotion Board’s executive director, yesterday said increased US consumer spending indicates Americans have the disposable income to travel with April 2025 forward bookings at his members’ properties some 5 percent ahead of 2024’s pace.

“Last year was a great year,” Mrs Jibrilu said of the 2023 festive season, “and to hear many partners say it’s equal to if not better than last year is refreshing because we had a very soft third quarter. To hear they are already full now is good news.”

Mrs Jibrilu explained that, as a result of the drop-off in business volumes between late summer and November’s first half, resorts are being cautious and not getting too carried away with their festive season expectations.

She reiterated that the sector is anticipating a holiday period that matches 2023’s financial and operational performance, “but is optimistic it may surpass last year”. The Promotion Board chief said: “With the uncertainty we have seen with September and October, we are optimistic that it may even surpass.

“The great news is that our partners are looking forward to a strong Christmas and festive season. Our big resorts are reporting strong bookings through the New Year and the smaller ones are following suit. Both major resorts [Atlantis and Baha Mar] are currently enjoying full occupancy due to their events, which is great news as well.”

As for hotel rates, a key indicator of visitor demand, Mrs Jibrilu added: “They have maintained, surprisingly, with last year. They fell by about $20 for the third quarter, but they are back to last year’s rates. Those were very high, incredible rates, and to see them bounce back and people are coming to pay them...

“We expected the rates to soften, but they are holding. We need this light at the end of the tunnel. We know the third quarter was definitely well below last year, and that was for stopover visitors and member properties, but there were a number of factors we have to take into consideration, not least the US presidential election and hurricane season without a doubt.”

While The Bahamas was again spared a major hurricane, key tourism source markets such as Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas were all severely impacted. “We had a number of headwinds we were fighting against, and now things have stabilised post-election we’re looking forward to the return of good numbers,” Mrs Jibrilu said.

Mr Fountain, meanwhile, said forward bookings for Bahama Out Island Promotion Board member properties from December 2024 through to April 2025 are matching last year’s as he voiced confidence that American consumers and households are “starting to loosen the purse strings” and beginning to spend once again following the US presidential election in November.

Signalling that this represents a positive development for travel demand and Bahamian tourism, he said differences between Easter’s timing are likely responsible for April 2025’s forward bookings being 5 percent ahead of this year’s comparatives while March next year is lagging slightly behind.

“Based on data to November 2024, what I noted in general terms is that forward bookings from December through April are on par with this year,” Mr Fountain told Tribune Business. “We were on a record booking pace for the beginning of the year [2024], and in late August, September and October we started to see some declines.

“We believe that had a lot to do with what happened on November 5, and also hurricane season and all the talk about inflation. Forward bookings for December through April are on a par with last year. We’re seeing a definite bump in December and April, and we’re starting to see - I don’t think it’s anything to be concerned about - but the March numbers are a little off compared to this year.

“Again, this is likely because Easter was in March this year. Our numbers for April 2025 are showing a 5 percent increase above what it was this year, and it’s because Easter is on April 21, not March 31. We noted that in terms of business things seemed to be levelling off from the slump we were in in September, October and November.” 

Mr Fountain said he and Bahamian resorts are drawing increased confidence for the industry’s 2025 prospects from recent data showing the strength of US consumer spending on the key shopping dates of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

He added that consumers are “starting to release and spend the dollars” following Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, with both days seeing “record spending” as shoppers “lean more” to online purchases and mobile phones over laptops and desktop computers.

“If you look at what Americans spent during Cyber Monday it’s like $13.7bn compared to $12.4bn last year, and then on Black Friday they spent $10.8bn compared to $9.8bn last year. They’re starting to loosen up on the purse strings,” Mr Fountain added, noting that some $7.6bn of spending during November 2024 related to “buy now, pay later” deals.

“That’s something we need to watch,” he said. “We’re looking at how that can apply to the travel business. It’s definitely something we have to keep an eye on. We definitely have to explore it. That sweet spot, that booking window, people are back to booking 60-90 days before they travel. That’s like our sweet spot.”