Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) top executive is “pretty confident” it will be able to handle Abaco’s 30 mega watt (MW) energy demand that is forecast to shatter pre-Dorian records next summer.

Shevonn Cambridge, the state-owned energy provider’s chief executive, told yesterday’s Abaco Business Outlook conference that the island’s peak demand in summer 2025 is predicted to be 9 percent higher than what was required prior to the catastrophic Category Five hurricane that struck in September 2019.

Speaking just over five years after the devastating storm hit the island, he added that BPL was “just starting” renovations to its Marsh Harbour power plant in a bid to increase its generation capacity by 8 MW and have sufficient redundant capacity to meet Abaco’s needs during next summer’s peak.

Mr Cambridge also made an impassioned plea to Abaconians to report increased copper theft that has disrupted BPL’s efforts to counter lightning strikes, thus undermining “the reliability and integrity of the system you enjoy”. He also revealed that BPL is seeking “strategic partners” on Abaco’s cays who can provide “emergency response” and temporary repairs to keep the power on until full work crews arrive.

Disclosing that BPL’s Abaco customer base is now less than 2,000 away from pre-Dorian levels, the chief executive said: “When we talk about the growth in Abaco, pre-Dorian we were at 9,900 customers. Just yesterday, when I checked, we were at about 8,000. 

“That is what we have been told; that Abaco is 75 percent to 80 percent back, and we are already there. So our forecasting is showing us that, by the end of next year or by next summer we can expect there will be about 10,000 customers.

“Our pre-Dorian load peak was 27.5 MW. I think our peak so far this year was 21.5 MW. Our forecasting is showing us that we are going to need about 30 MW of capacity for next summer. That being said, we have about 48 MW installed at Wilson City, of which about 36 MW is active right now,” Mr Cambridge continued.

“We have another 8 MW at Marsh Harbour power station. We are just starting the renovations there, and we are hoping to see those 8 MW available by next summer. Between that and what we have at Wilson City, they give us about 56 MW in generation for what we expect to be a 30 MW load.”

Roscoe Thompson, chairman of the Marsh Harbour/Spring City Township, said that based on Mr Cambridge’s figures it appeared that one of BPL’s largest units - capable of producing 12 MW - was out of service as he challenged whether it will be returned and in service in time for summer 2025.

The BPL chief executive, in response, assured that it would be as he pledged: “We intend to be ready for next summer.” Confirming that the 12 MW generator is suffering from a “long-term outage”, he added that BPL throughout its network has been challenged by long lead times and the wait for parts due to supply chain shortages and backlogs stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“When we plan, we plan based on an ‘n-2’ safety factor. We can lose two of our largest engines and still be able to meet demand,” Mr Cambridge said. “The two largest engines, being 12 MW each, that will allow us to lose 24 MW and still have 34 MW available and that does not include back-up power on the cays. Tribune Business calculations, though, put the latter figure at 32 MW - just above projected demand.

However, the BPL chief asserted: “We’re pretty confident that we’ll be able to meet the load.” He added that a 10 MW renewable energy project, developed by the private sector and based on solar photovoltaic (PV) power with back-up liquefied natural gas (LNG) and battery energy storage, is expected to come online in Abaco within 18-24 months as part of the Government’s energy reforms.

Mr Cambridge, though, disclosed that BPL’s Abaco transmission and distribution network is being increasingly challenged by outages caused by lightning strikes. With the island’s forests still recovering from Dorian, he added that lightning was finding its way to the ground through BPL’s poles.

“The reality of it is we are transmitting power 60 miles each way out of Wilson City on an island where the only thing standing now are our poles,” he asserted. “If you know anything about lightning, lightning tries to find the quickest path to the ground. We’ve been analysing our forced outage reports and are finding most of our outages in Abaco are as a result of lightning.

“Unfortunately, until the forests come back that’s going to be a problem that we have. So, one might ask what are we doing to address that? What we are now doing is that we are putting in more ground wires on our static lines. Where we had one every ten poles, we’re going every three poles to try and direct that lightning to the ground.”

However, BPL’s efforts in this area have encountered human disruption. “It pains me to say it, but unfortunately when we do it with copper individuals see that as an opportunity to make money,” Mr Cambridge said. “So we’ve had copper theft and moved to other materials that are not as efficient as copper.

“So, if there’s one thing that the community can do it is to please, if you see it, report it, because it’s hurting the reliability and integrity of the system you enjoy.” The BPL chief added that he was often asked why the utility does not place more of its infrastructure underground, but said this is three times’ more expensive than installing traditional overhead lines.

Noting that persons were building back bigger from Dorian, with what were once 1,000 square foot homes in the Abaco cays now becoming 5,000 square foot homes, Mr Cambridge said BPL is also exploring ways to minimise outage times and effect repairs more rapidly.

“We’re looking to identify strategic partners on the various cays who we can train to be able to provide some emergency response; not a full-fledged response but somebody who may be able to go out at night a refuse a line for us,” he explained.

“So you don’t have to wait until morning until the crew gets there. When we dispatch a crew from Marsh Harbour to Crown Haven or Sandy Point it takes two hours for them to do that, so if we can identify individuals in those locations who can assist us in that regard. These are the types of things we are doing.”