By SIMON

The curious and unfortunate decision yesterday by Central Grand Bahama Member of Parliament Iram Lewis to resign from the Free National Movement and join the oddly and ironically named Coalition of Independents (COI) has precedent.

Sitting MPs and other party members have left their political homes or were suspended or expelled over the decades for myriad reasons. Why did Mr Lewis leave the party after so many years?

It is no secret that he had become increasingly unpopular in his constituency. He had also lost considerable support in his branch. He should realise that it is not an easy road as a political independent or as a member of a smaller party. Is Mr Lewis more loyal to his own ambition than he was to his party, as we have witnessed with many others?

Alternatively, Hubert Ingraham and Perry Christie ran successfully as independents for the House after their departure cum dismissal from the Progressive Liberal Party.

They did so in the aftermath of the explosive allegations against the party and Sir Lynden Pindling and others concerning corruption related to the transshipment of illicit drugs through The Bahamas. Both men were cheered on by their constituents and many in the country who applauded their actions,

Both Ingraham and Christie went on to become prime minister. Ingraham subsequently joined and led the FNM, ending Sir Lynden’s political career. Christie rejoined and led the PLP after Sir Lynden stepped down as leader.

However, most independents are not politically successful after bolting their parties. One of the more recent examples was Loretta Butler-Turner’s decision to run as an independent against the FNM and PLP in the last election.

Mr Lewis is also likely to fail in his bid to return to the House as a member of the COI. But can he be a spoiler for the FNM? His former party colleague, Rev Frederick McAlpine, the then MP for Pineridge, remained disgruntled throughout his tenure in the Hubert Minnis administration.

A man of enormous ego, he was reportedly piqued and crushed that he was never made a cabinet minister. Dr Minnis was warned by many not to run Rev McAlpine and a host of other MPs, many of whom proved continuously problematic.

In the last election, Rev McAlpine ran as an independent for Pineridge, securing a significant number of votes.

Minister for Grand Bahama and current MP for Pineridge Ginger Moxey won 1,423 votes for 40.05 percent of the vote as a PLP. Rev. McAlpine won 1,175 votes for 33.07 percent of the vote as an independent.

The FNM candidate, Welbourne Bottle, garnered 886 votes for 24.94 percent. The opposition vote was higher than the victory for Ms Moxey. The charismatic Rev McAlpine, a popular speaker at political rallies, bested the FNM candidate. What will happen in this seat at the next election?

Iram Lewis lacks the popularity, charisma, and speaking abilities of Rev McAlpine. Still, could he prove a spoiler for the FNM in the next election? The FNM has traditionally enjoyed strong support in Grand Bahama. However, could some of its possible wins be at risk from independent and COI candidates?

The refusal to re-nominate sitting MPS is always fraught. When Dr Hubert Minnis declined to re-nominate a number of FNM MPs to contest the 2017 general election, it caused considerable consternation and division.

Still, because the country was desperate to throw Perry Christie and the PLP out, the FNM was able to secure a sizeable victory and majority. Is the current electorate desperate to throw out Philip and the PLP?

The 2021 election, which was called early and during another deadly wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, without strong health protocols at the polls, resulted in a number of close races.

While it is likely that the PLP would have won the election, the FNM may have secured more seats if the election was called later and was not in the middle of a wave. It proved a very bad decision.

Many FNMs stayed home and the PLP only won, according to The Nassau Guardian, 34 percent of registered voters. Despite the number of seats gained, it was not a resounding popular victory. The overall turnout was lower than previous elections.

There are sometimes good and necessary reasons to deny a re-nomination to a sitting MP, such as an MP having been declared bankrupt, or being in the middle of a criminal trial, or lacking the support of the branch, or some other reason.

Still, denying a nomination to an incumbent comes with consequences that a leader and a party must carefully consider. There must be a clear process for how a nomination is denied. A leader must think out the public rationale for denying a nomination and explain the decision to the party and the country in a timely manner.

Politicians tend to have outsized egos, reveling in their status as public figures. They bask in the starlight of public adulation. Even the most incapable believe they should reign in cabinet. Most backbenchers in smaller countries remain ever envious of those in cabinet. Envy powers resentment.

Party divisions in The Bahamas are rarely about policy matters. They are today more often about personal ambition, egotism, and the desire for power, patronage and status.

Prime ministers from Sir Lynden to Hubert Ingraham to Perry Christie, Dr Hubert Minnis and Philip Davis have contended with the egotism of those hungry for cabinet status. Resultingly, successive prime ministers have caused the appointment of the proverbial gussimae cabinets.

After the recent general election in Belize, in which his People’s United Party won a landslide victory, Prime Minister John Briceno appointed every one of his party’s MPs, a total of 26, as ministers or ministers of state. His party has no backbenchers, which is bad for parliamentary democracy.

There is always the potential that an MP denied re-nomination may join another major party or run as an independent, as Mr Lewis has now decided. What will be the impact of his decision on how the FNM is viewed publicly?

When the charismatic Branville McCartney left the FNM to launch his vanity party, in part because he was not elevated as a substantive minister, Hubert Ingraham did not appear to fully understand the threat he posed to the FNM in the upcoming election. McCartney’s Democratic National Alliance proved a spoiler in some seats.

Similarly, the 2021 general election demonstrated that there are a good number of voters, including an increasing number of young people, who remain disaffected with the major parties.

The COI took advantage of this disaffection and garnered many votes. How well will the grouping do at the next election? Are the number of disaffected voters growing? Many young people do not have traditional ties to the major parties as do older voters.

Some believe that the COI is mostly a threat to an incumbent government. Others believes that the PLPs base will be more solid with the party than the FNMs base will be with the FNM. These are all suppositions. Neither party can ignore the threat to their votes posed by the Coalition.

We will see how the departure of Iram Lewis and subsequent events play out for him and the FNM. It is possible that if he were not afforded another nomination, Mr Lewis could have had a future public role.

It is more likely now that his public political career is coming to an end, especially given that he was never a major political talent.

How will the FNM demonstrate unity going forward? How will the PLP seek to take advantage of any disunity in the Opposition? How will those who are refused re-nominations in the PLP act in the future?

The seeming growing dislike of both major parties, of which the COI is a beneficiary, should not be taken lightly by either party. Moreover, what will voters think of it all in the lead up to the next election, whenever it is called?