with CHARLIE HARPER

There’s a curious sub-text to the whole Donald Trump presidential saga that has wormed its way into the American national consciousness and cannot, apparently, be expelled.

He seems to be still actively contemplating standing for election for a third presidential term in 2028.

“Of course, we know that cannot happen,” an expert remarked the other day after the most recent presidential hint was reported in the national press. Really?

Trump said on a Sunday morning NBC news show that he was “not joking” about the possibility of seeking a third presidential term. He explained that there were supposedly “methods” to get around the explicit bar to more than two presidential terms that has been enshrined in the US constitution for over 70 years.

The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, which was ratified in 1951, says that “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”.

After Trump’s remark, the national press picked up on the idea right away. American media companies have certainly learned by now that when Trump thinks and then speaks the unthinkable, he must be taken seriously.

And his remarks on NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ represented the first time that Trump had indicated in such a serious setting that he was actually considering the idea of a third term in the White House.

Sunday’s interview was not the first time the president had made reference to the idea, however. Back in February at a Republican party conference in Florida, Trump spoke on the subject.

“I’ve raised a lot of money for the next race (in 2028) that I assume I can’t use for myself, but I’m not 100 percent sure because I don’t know,” Trump told his fawning audience. “I think I’m not allowed to run again. I’m not sure. Am I allowed to run again?”

Shortly thereafter, he was quoted on the subject again. “They say I can’t run again; that’s the expression,” Trump said. “Then somebody said, ‘I don’t think you can.’ Oh…”

This is one of the most fascinating aspects of Trump. He regularly breaks one of the few cardinal rules of American political life: He opens his mouth and expounds on whatever happens to be in his mind at the moment, regardless of political consequences or even common decency. And, as we have become accustomed to recognising, he nearly always gets away with it.

In this particular case, could Trump actually somehow evade the very specific language in the 22nd Amendment? It doesn’t seem so. Since the topic is still front of mind for so many observers, here’s why. The process is intentionally complex and cumbersome.

Two-thirds majorities in both the House and Senate are required just to propose an amendment to the US constitution. While the GOP won majorities in both legislative houses last November, their margins are well short of the 67 Senate votes and 290 House votes that would be required even for this preliminary step.

Even though the Democrats are currently in the midst of a process of grudgingly soul-searching for reasons for their “inexplicable” November defeat and are publicly groping around for a strategy to derail Trump’s ambitious plans for the country, they are still managing to stand united in Congress almost all of the time in opposition to most of his initiatives.

The necessary Congressional two-thirds votes aren’t going to happen.

Another possibility is for two-thirds of the states to call for a constitutional convention. With the Democrats still in control of both houses in 18 of the 50 American state legislatures and three other states featuring split party control of their legislatures (42 percent altogether), a constitutional convention is not on the cards anytime soon either.

That same mathematical calculus also practically nullifies any chance of the states ratifying the kind of constitutional amendment that would allow a third Trump term. Even if a change to the 22nd Amendment were somehow to be introduced, three-fourths of all state legislatures — or of those state-level constitutional conventions — must approve it.

It would take an unimaginable turn of events within the Democratic Party for the door to open even a crack on a third Trump term.

The idea stubbornly persists nevertheless. In December, Steve Bannon, the rumpled Trump confidant and one-time campaign manager, speculated publicly about a three-term presidency. Bannon reportedly claimed that a loophole in the Constitution could allow Trump to run again in 2028, citing his discussions with a Republican lawyer.

“Since it doesn’t actually say consecutive terms in office,” Bannon said, “I don’t know, maybe we do it again in ‘28? Are you guys down for that? Trump ‘28?” Cheers from the fawning crowd.

And an especially devoted Trump supporter in Congress has recently introduced a resolution expressing House of Representatives support for a third Trump term “in the national interest, in order to root out the remnants of the corrupt Biden presidency”.

Amazingly, yet another seemingly crazy idea is being circulated by Trump supporters as a potential loophole. According to this line of thinking, Vice President JD Vance could win both the Republican nomination for president in 2028 and the general election – with Trump running as his vice-president!

Then, as soon as this upside-down ticket prevailed, Vance could humbly resign from office so that Trump could move back into the White House for another four years.

This couldn’t work either. According to the New York Times, legal scholars say that scheme would be untracked by the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution, which states that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice-president of the United States”.

It seems like the notion of a third Trump term is dead on arrival. That’s it, right? He cannot possibly return for four more years. Correct? Let’s recall one of his public statements on the subject:

“They say I can’t run again; that’s the expression. Then somebody said, ‘I don’t think you can.’ Oh.”

It doesn’t really seem that this idea is really out of the question, somehow. Not with this president’s track record of consistently defying the odds and norms and all sorts of political conventions and traditions.

New tariffs will have big impact on auto industry

The vigorous debate within American punditry and political life about Trump’s signature tariff initiative continues unabated, because the president continues to impose, rescind, reimpose and reduce these import taxes according to an unpredictable – even unfathomable – pattern which apparently only he understands.

A new series of tariffs on imported automobiles and automobile parts was to go into effect this morning. While the imposition of these taxes would have immediate effect, economists are estimating that due to existing inventory in the US market, the overall impact would be somewhat delayed.

These tariffs, if they stay in place, are certain to affect the new and used car market here in The Bahamas.

News outlets are reporting expert estimates that Trump’s new auto tariffs would raise vehicle prices by an average of approximately 13.5 percent. For an average new 2024 automobile, that would mean an extra $6,400 above the previous sticker price.

Almost half of all vehicles sold in the United States are imported, as well as nearly 60 percent of the parts used in vehicles assembled in the United States, so it is reasonable to assume that new and used car prices here in The Bahamas, as well as replacement auto parts prices, would rise commensurately.

Trump’s new tariffs apply both to finished cars and trucks that are shipped into the United States, and to imported parts that are assembled into cars at American auto plants.

Ford Motor Company’s CEO told reporters, in response to questions about Trump’s North American tariffs generally, that “long term, a 25 percent tariff across the Mexico and Canada borders would blow a hole in the US industry that we’ve never seen.”

Trump’s key rationale for the tariffs is to create equivalency with other countries who impose tariffs on US goods imported into their own economies.

Economists estimate that the impact of three years of ten percent Trump tariffs would shrink the US Gross Domestic Product by roughly three-quarters of one percent. That’s around $20 billion in 2023 terms.

Overall average tariffs imposed by some major US trading partners range from 4% (UK, Canada, Japan) to 17% (India). China’s average tariff rate is 8 percent.