By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian realtors yesterday argued that fears of a 2008-2009 recession repeat due to Donald Trump’s tariff policies “might be jumping the gun” given this nation’s economy is in a much stronger position now.

John Christie, H G Christie’s principal and chief executive, told Tribune Business that there is no comparison between the current Bahamian economy and the one that went into that global contraction some 17 years ago because “fundamentally we are in a much stronger and better place” in 2025 than pre-2008.

Pushing back against Bahamian economist Therese Turner-Jones, who last week warned Bahamians to “brace” for a potential global depression and repeat of the 2008-2009 recession, which saw thousands lose their jobs, he added that economic activity had already been slowing for some time since 2007 when that latter event occurred.

In contrast, and while it is “too early” to determine how the US president’s trade and economic policies will pay out, Mr Christie told this newspaper he has “not seen any slowdown” with international buyer interest in Bahamian real estate as he was yesterday fielding calls from “brand new” potential clients.

“From a real estate perspective there are two things,” he said of the differences between the current and 2008-2009 economic environment. “When that recession was happening in 2008, there was a growing palpable fear that things were going to fall apart, and that we need to get as many deals done as we can. Things were already slowing down and hurting.

“This is completely different. Now, it’s gang busters with people coming in. The premise, the trends are completely different. We’re in a much stronger economy. That [2008-2009] was something systemic, endemic. Everything was falling apart. This one is a guy sticking a keg in it and everything’s falling apart. But, if we pull the thing back out, everything’s still moving. It’s completely different.”

As for the fall-out for Bahamian real estate, and the wider economy, of Mr Trump’s moves to completely shred the long-established global commerce and trade system and its norms, Mr Christie replied: “I guess it’s too early to tell. The real big guys, they seem to be insulated, they seem to be secure.

“I’m getting more calls now than I was; brand new people like today. I’ve not seen any slowdown but it’s still too early to tell. The stock market fall-out from what’s happening, if it goes down, down, down, it usually hits the bottom and people start buying again.”

Mr Christie also acknowledged that real estate investments can be a hedge, or ‘safe haven’, during times of stock market volatility and global uncertainty - factors that might ultimately benefit the Bahamian high-end market. “We could be seeing that too,” he agreed. “We are getting calls; I don’t know how real they are, but people are also thinking now may be the time to leave the US, so that’s also an option, too.

“We’re fundamentally in a much better place and people selling doom and gloom might be jumping the gun a bit.” Mario Carey, principal of MCR Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Bahamas, told Tribune Business that this nation and its real estate sector remain “a good bet” despite the emerging economic headwinds while the number of American buyers in the market having increased.

“We have a sense that people are looking at The Bahamas,” he said. “They’re looking at real estate, looking around as an option. It’s not yet to the extent there is a big flood, but there is activity and the percentage of US buyers has increased.”

Revealing that he was working on the contract for one high-end real estate transaction when this newspaper called, Mr Carey added: “People are making quick decisions. The Bahamas is still a good bet. The demand for beachfront in The Bahamas is so strong.” With much of Florida’s east cost now fully developed, and high-end properties extremely expensive to acquire, The Bahamas has emerged as a less expensive alternative.

Urging that “monetising our waters needs to be a priority” for The Bahamas, the well-known realtor added of the property market: “I think there’s a lot of moving parts. There’s a sense the market is still active. I have met a lot of people coming here to buy real estate who are Americans, and maybe there’s an uptick in American buyers....

“I’m in the luxury market. I deal with high net worth individuals. I think The Bahamas is attractive. I think we’re in a good place to be sure. I think it’s a bit too early still. We have just got to wait it out. That’s all we can do. We have no power over this. I hope it’s more positive than negative. I don’t want to go backwards if we can avoid it.”

Ryan Knowles, founder and chief executive of Maison Bahamas, told this newspaper that the anticipated influx of high net worth individuals and their families as a result of changes to UK tax law is now emerging. And he pointed out that the decline in the US dollar’s value, when compared to other global currencies, is making Bahamian real estate cheaper for Canadian and UK buyers given this nation’s currency peg.

While the trillions wiped of the value of global stocks, in the wake of Mr Trump’s tariff policies, will likely threaten the ability of high net worth individuals with such holdings to purchase Bahamian real estate, Mr Knowles said: “I don’t want to be too speculative. We’ve done quite well in the last few years.

“Even when things slowed down in the US, the market here still remained very strong. We haven’t seen any price decreases, unlike in some parts of the US. We’ve fared well up to this point, and with tourism getting stronger; the numbers keep going up, I expect that to continue.”

Many ‘non-domiciles’, who were persons treated as resident by the UK but have their permanent home in another country, have been seeking an alternative location after the British government scrapped a tax break that enabled them avoid paying tax on their overseas income.

“We’re starting to see some of that influx from the UK, the non-domiciles, come to fruition,” Mr Knowles said. “That’s been one of the driving forces in the high-end market; some of the UK non-domiciles looking for alternative places to hang their hats.

“The other really interesting outtake with this, with the US dollar losing its value, it becomes more attractive for European, British and other buyers to purchase because the exchange rate is more favourable. That’s another angle to keep an eye on. Provided it doesn’t get worse than it is now I think we’ll be fine. It’s just wait and see.”