By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamian tourism industry faces “a very foggy crystal ball” in predicting its near-term performance with global economic turmoil causing many “grave concern”, a senior hotelier warned yesterday.

Jackson Weech, the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA), in a written response to Tribune Business inquiries confirmed that the upheaval and stock market sell-off triggered by Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies - and the resulting uncertainty impacting business and consumer confidence - may “have a dampening effect” on travel demand and Bahamian vacations.

“Tourism destinations throughout the globe are monitoring the fluctuating dynamics that could have a heightening impact on travel choices and trends from, to and through our primary source market, the United States,” he acknowledged.

“The Bahamas, like many other tourism dependent nations, are well aware that economic uncertainties in our source market, including job uncertainties, the perception of disposable income depletions and other factors could have a dampening effect on travel demand given that 80 percent of guests visiting The Bahamas emanate from the United States of America.”

However, warning that it is too early to determine the precise impact, Mr Weech, a senior executive with Atlantis, told this newspaper: “The range and specificity of outcomes are difficult to predict due to the unique undulations of market conditions. Clarity gleaned from traditional forecasting models is further hampered by an increasingly truncated booking window.

“All of these factors make for a very foggy crystal ball. However, the conditions that are in play are of grave concern to many in the tourism sector, given that they could potentially disturb our primary economic activity.”

Robert Sands, his predecessor as BHTA president, and Baha Mar’s senior vice-president of external affairs and government relations, told Tribune Business that the Cable Beach mega resort’s Easter weekend occupancies remain “very similar” to 2024 given that it has always been traditionally strong and represents the winter season peak.

He conceded that the guest “booking pace is not as robust as it was”, but said it was currently impossible to determine how much of that it related to the typical post-Easter slowdown or any fall-out for US consumer demand, confidence and travel spending as a result of Mr Trump’s tariffs and economic policies.

Mr Sands also revealed that group business, which is typically booked far out, was “flat” and “not growing”. He said: “Long-term bookings for group and so forth, we’re not seeing the numbers in that particular category jump. That appears to be flat as well; the booking pace for new groups. Anything that’s not met our forecasts and expectations would be a concern, absolutely.”

Mr Weech, meanwhile, suggested that the cruise industry is better-positioned than land-based hotels and other tourism industry to cope with any US and global economic slowdown. “It is anticipated, however, that certain tourism participants are well-positioned to be more resilient to economic uncertainties in key markets,” the BHTA president said.

“The cruise industry, who are able to offer travellers low entry-level price points for their encapsulating guest accommodations and experiences while traversing to and through The Bahamas, may well be better able to weather potential prevailing headwinds.

“In addition, it is anticipated that there will be a layer of our visitor demographic; the upper echelon of spenders, who may be more impervious to economic contractions [and] who will continue to visit and spend in the destination.”

Mr Weech continued: “Nevertheless, given the important role the tourism sector plays in contributing to the social-economic health and well-being being of the destination, it is imperative that we as a nation, as inter-connected private and public sector partners, navigate these uncharted waters collaboratively, mindfully and intelligently, leveraging our formidable acumen, expertise and allure to protect the sustained development of our tourism economy for the benefit of all of those who depend on this dynamic industry for their livelihood and way of life.”

Graeme Davis, Baha Mar’s president, in addressing the BHTA’s 2025 first quarter meeting earlier this year, acknowledged the global uncertainties stemming from US economic and trade policies and said the hoped-for increase in Canadian visitors as a result of anti-Trump sentiment has yet to occur. “We’re cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year,” the Baha Mar chief said.

“Of course, with what’s happening in the US there’s uncertainty. We’re very, very cautious about what’s happening up there with the economy in the US. With the Canadian noise that happened in the marketplace, with the potential shifting of tourism away from the US, there is some potential upside with Canadians down to The Bahamas.

“We’re all optimistic that we will see some of that, but we’ve not really seen that so far. We’re closely monitoring our geographic origins and noting there’s not a big bump going forward at this time or going forward from Canada, but we’re continuing to monitor and being cautiously optimistic with what’s happening in the US,” Mr Davis continued.

“Certainly our booking pace, we look strong for the second quarter headed into the summer months as well. We’re very, very busy working on our fourth hotel and architectural plans as we continue through 2025. The ground breaking is still planned for 2026; we hope as early as possible and, as soon as we have finalised our brand to be a partner on the property, we’ll certainly make an announcement there.

“We’re still this year investing north of $38m in capital improvements throughout the property,” he added. “We just completed a renovation to our guest rooms at SLS, now being just eight years-old. We continue to renovate and enhance the property throughout with this continued investment around the property. We’re excited about 2025 ahead, but are still being cautiously optimistic with what the business outlook is.”