By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

New car sales exceeded 2024’s “banner year” by 12 percent during the first two months of 2025, with one Bahamian auto dealer yesterday asserting that current global uncertainty “won’t become the end of the world”.

Ben Albury, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s (BMDA) president, told Tribune Business there was too much at stake for the US and other nations for them not to resolve their current trade-related disputes as Donald Trump last night confirmed tariffs on Chinese imports will “come down substantially, but it won’t be zero”.

Voicing optimism that “a lot of this stuff is going to work its way out”, with 18 nations yesterday said to have offered trade agreement proposals to the US, he added that Bahamian auto dealers still have time to “see this play out” with domestic market forces presently causing them more concern.

Mr Albury, who is also Bahamas Bus and Truck’s general manager, told this newspaper that the main issue that BMDA members are focused on is “market saturation” given that the industry has enjoyed “a good run” for the past several years since emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic.

During this time, many persons and companies wanting to acquire new vehicles have now done so, and taken on the required debt financing to close the purchases. As a result, given the relatively small size of the Bahamian market, Mr Albury said “there’s only so many vehicles we can sell”, and dealers are watching closely in anticipation of having to reduce new auto orders if demand slackens.

For now, the BMDA president said interest and floor traffic in dealer showrooms “remains strong”, with Mr Trump’s tariffs not impacting vehicle prices because most autos are imported to The Bahamas directly from Japan, China and other markets without having to touch the US and its new border levies. Apart from China, most of the planned US tariffs have been paused for 90 days and held at a ‘baseline’ 10 percent.

“I haven’t had any dealer express any concerns to me,” Mr Albury disclosed in relation to the Trump tariffs. “I’ve had a few one-on-one consultations, and we don’t see much of a threat to us because the product is imported from China comes direct. It doesn’t go through the US. The product from Japan comes direct from Japan. It doesn’t go through the US.

“We wouldn’t be subject to any of those tariffs at this point in time. It’s a wait and watch scenario. I don’t see any thing threatening in the short run. We’re going to have to keep our eyes on the long-term and any effect that result in a recession.”

Hopes for a negotiated solution were revived yesterday after the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, was reported to have told a private meeting with investors and business leaders that the high tariffs were unsustainable and he expects a “de-escalation” between the US and China. The US has imposed import taxes of 145 percent on China, which has countered with 125 percent tariffs on US goods.

“I think we are already seeing a lot of countries negotiating with the US, and I think a lot of it is posturing,” Mr Albury told this newspaper. “I don’t think it’s going to turn out to be the end of the world. We dodged the bullet on that $1m per port call Chinese-made ship fee. That’s a good thing.

“I think a lot of this stuff is going to work its way out. It’s in everyone’s best interests that it does. Trade with the US is too important. They are the biggest consumer in the world, so for people who are producers it’s definitely in their interests to come to some sort of agreement. I think it will all come to a conclusion very soon.”

Mr Albury said the greatest danger for the Bahamian auto sector and, by extension, this country’s wider economy is if the global trade and tariff dispute - with all the uncertainty and potential damage to consumer, business and investor confidence that will cause - lasts for an extended period of time. Higher prices, and a potential US and global recession, would also undermine the Bahamian tourism industry.

“When we see a downturn in the US it usually takes six to 18 months to fully impact us,” the BMDA president said. “We’re able to watch this play out. As of right now, interest has been very strong and we have a lot of customers shopping. It’s too early to tell what the impact will be.

“I checked, and the industry was actually ahead 12 percent over the first two months of last year. It’s still early, only two months, but that’s very positive. That’s very good. There seems to be a high level of confidence and our sales, as indicated, are still very strong compared with last year and last year was a banner year for us.”

Mr Trump’s tariff unveiling took place after that two-month period, and the BMDA’s March sales figures are not yet available. But Mr Albury told Tribune Business: “The biggest concern for members is market saturation. We’ve had a good run now and a lot of people have taken on financing to buy new vehicles. A lot of people have done new purchases and are not looking to replace them.

“Because we’ve done so much, the market is only so big, and there is only so much it can sustain. So common sense tells us there’s only so many vehicles we can sell in a population of this size. If anything, we will be keeping an eye on that to manage inventory levels and not ordering to the extent we were over the last two years. We cannot expect the market to grow at the same rate every single year.”

Explaining that the new auto market tends to move in cycles, with dealers having to “work through the dips” and be ready to exploit any increased demand, Mr Albury added: “Right now I can’t seem to get as much product as I need. It cannot come quickly enough. We’re being cautious with our projections. A lot of purchases are made six months in advance, so we always have to be looking at cash flow and inventory.”

Also asserting that the auto industry “absorbed higher costs much better than I thought it would” during COVID and its aftermath, the BMDA president said The Bahamas’ position as a high-end tourist destination may help to offset any fall-out from the Trump tariffs given its typical client base is more protected from any impact.

“I can tell you that I was in Eleuthera this weekend and there was no shortage of tourists. It was bustling,” he added. “It was crazy, crazy business. They were coming in on yachts, private jets and renting homes on the beach. I think we’re in a good position as far as tourism. We really don’t attract the back-packing tourist so to speak. I think it will have to be an extended shock to make a big difference.”