By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Opposition’s finance spokesman yesterday asserted that “it’s almost a sign of desperation” for the Prime Minister to celebrate a 0.1 percentage point improvement in the IMF’s growth forecast for The Bahamas.

Kwasi Thompson, the east Grand Bahama MP, hit out after Philip Davis KC hailed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent economic growth for 2025 - as well as The Bahamas’ first credit rating outlook upgrade to ‘positive’ in 17 years - as evidence of the outside world’s “confidence” and “faith” in the country’s ability to improve its prospects.

Noting that The Bahamas has bucked a trend that saw the IMF downgrade 2025 growth forecasts for the US, UK and all other major economies as a result of the Trump-induced tariff turmoil, the Prime Minister said: “It is with a sense of resolve and encouragement that I share with this House the recent revisions issued by the International Monetary Fund in its April 2025 World Economic Outlook.

“Despite a global context defined by economic uncertainty, trade disruptions and inflationary pressures, the IMF has upgraded The Bahamas’ growth projections for 2025 from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent, and for 2026 from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent.

“In a world where many nations have seen their forecasts downgraded, The Bahamas stands apart. We are among the few countries that have earned an upward revision. This is a marker not only of international recognition — but of the clear-eyed, hard-nosed, deliberate economic management we’ve insisted upon,” Mr Davis added.

“Some doubted this would be possible. Some said the hole was too deep, the institutions too weak, the political courage too rare. They scoffed at the ambition of our fiscal reforms, questioned the viability of our energy agenda and ridiculed our insistence on national development that is both inclusive and modern.

“But, Madam Speaker, here we are. The data is clear. The message from global institutions is loud. And the faith being shown in The Bahamas is real.” Mr Davis used the IMF upgrade, and recently-improved credit outlook from Moody’s, to hit back at the Opposition and other critics while asserting that his administration has revived and rescued the economy from the state it inherited from its Minnis predecessor.

However, an unconvinced Mr Thompson argued that the 0.1 percentage point improvement is relatively “minuscule” in economic terms given that it represents just a $14m-$15m increase in economic output or GDP in a near-$15bn economy. He also pointed out that the 1.8 percent growth forecast for 2025 represents a 0.8 percentage point decrease on the 2.6 percent that The Bahamas achieved as recently as 2023.

“I don’t think they have a lot to celebrate,” Mr Thompson argued. “The IMF report, if you put that in context, I don’t believe anybody would see that as a time to celebrate. Our growth had dropped from 2.3 percent to the original 1.7 percent forecast for this year, and this increase was from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent.

“I don’t believe anybody would celebrate economic growth of 1.8 percent when we need far more to deal with unemployment, we need far more to deal with students coming into the workforce, we need far more to address the cost of living crisis. Now is not the time for us to celebrate. It’s time to focus on policies that create sustainable economic growth.”

Mr Thompson said such action would have far more meaning for Bahamians and their families than a modest upward revision to the IMF’s growth projections, and challenged why the Prime Minister was hailing a forecast as opposed to actual economic growth. He also asserted that inflation and the cost of living represent an ever-present concern, while stopover visitors that are “the engine of tourism” remain flat.

“I don’t believe the Bahamian public is focused on 1.7 percent versus 1.8 percent growth and what that means,” he added. “The Bahamian public is focused more on policies that decrease the cost of living for them. They are interested in policies that reduce unemployment and produce real, positive growth, and which produce sustainable economic growth and put dollars in their pockets. That’s what the Bahamian public is interested in.”

The Government’s energy reforms could be just the sort of policies Mr Thompson is referring to. However, he added: “This business of patting yourself on the back for 0.1 percentage points. This is not evidence that the economy is doing better. This is not about real growth. This is a forecast.

“If you have to celebrate a forecast, but have not achieved actual growth in the economy, that is almost a sign of desperation if you have to celebrate a forecast. One of the issues we have raised is about the decrease in economic growth, not just the forecast. We need to put what the IMF said in context and not celebrate it. It is a wake-up call for us to put in place policies that will provide real and true economic growth.”

Mr Davis, though, argued: “We returned our country to primary surplus. We laid out and followed through on a fiscal plan that curbed waste, stabilised our borrowing, and re-established discipline in public expenditure. The world took notice.

“Moody’s, an agency not known for flattery, recently upgraded The Bahamas’ outlook from stable to positive for the first time in nearly 20 years. Their statement recognised that our debt is now falling. That our deficit is under control. That our reforms are yielding results....

 “Growing confidence is not limited to the corridors of the IMF or the credit rating halls of Moody’s. It is echoed in the investment decisions being made by businesses, both domestic and international. It is reflected in the fact that our capital markets are expanding, that tourism remains strong, and that construction across the archipelago is surging.”

And, in a nod to the threat posed by Trump tariff confusion, Mr Davis said: “The IMF’s recent report makes one thing clear: Global uncertainty is likely to persist. From US tariffs to fragile financial markets, the road ahead is not without risk. But for the first time in a generation, The Bahamas enters such uncertainty from a position of growing strength.

“We are no longer pleading our case; we are proving it. We are no longer waiting for help; we are building systems that empower Bahamians to help themselves. This is the essence of confidence. Not arrogance. But confidence forged in discipline, data and delivery.”