By NEIL HARTNELL

and FAY SIMMONS

Tribune Business Reporters

Grand Bahama’s Chamber of Commerce president yesterday said Freeport Harbour is anticipating “a very lean” 2025 second with the island still to return to the economic output levels of ten years ago.

Dillon Knowles told Tribune Business that cruise ship calls to the Harbour are forecast to drop from around 25 per month to four “through the rest of the year” as a result of Carnival Cruise Line’s vessels now stopping at its $600m Celebration Key project instead.

He added that cruise ship calls to Freeport Harbour are only predicted to recover towards the end of 2025 going into the New Year, with 18-19 vessels per month anticipated. Noting that Carnival previously accounted for a significant volume of calls at the Harbour, Mr Knowles said: “They’ve increased their vessel calls significantly at Celebration Key, but the Harbour is going to suffer tremendously because of that.

“I think they also lost the two biggest vendors who went to Celebration Key with Carnival, so it’s going to be a very lean remainder of the year for the Harbour Company and vendors there, and will only ramp back up next year. There’s been much talk about expansion of the Harbour between the cruise lines, but whether that comes off is anybody’s guess. 

“It will make a difference if it does come off. We’ll have to wait and see. We’ve got to work on expanding and diversifying the economy beyond the cruise lines.” Mr Knowles spoke as gross domestic product (GDP) data released by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI), and broken down island-by-island, showed Grand Bahama’s economy remains smaller than it was a decade ago.

Despite a $214m pick-up compared to the prior year, Grand Bahama’s 2024 economic output or GDP of $1.808bn was smaller than the $2.017bn generated in 2017. It also remained lower than the economic output produced in 2020 and 2021 in the immediate aftermath of both Hurricane Dorian and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mr Knowles said of the data: “That’s not a surprise to me. We were just treading water in that period of time. We definitely didn’t have much growth on the ground. The numbers reflect that.” The GB Chamber chief said he remains optimistic that the numbers will improve as a result of Carnival’s private port opening, adding that last year’s improvement in Grand Bahama’s GDP may have been due to its construction.

“Hopefully the Grand Lucayan will get itself sorted out and first become a construction bump, and then an operational bump after that,” Mr Knowles said. He added, though, that the true impact may only be felt in the economic numbers in 2026 and 2027.

The Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI), in revealing its advanced GDP estimates, said The Bahamas saw continued economic growth in 2024 with the fourth quarter expansion 7.6 percent above 2023 levels. The Bahamas saw increased growth in each quarter for 2024, except the third, which produced an 0.8 percent decline.

“The quarterly GDP trends for 2024 show continued economic growth when compared to the corresponding quarters in 2023, with the exception of the third quarter, which recorded a modest year-over-year decline of less than one percent,” the BNSI report said. 

“The most notable increase occurred in the fourth quarter of 2024, which saw real quarterly GDP grow by 7.6 percent compared to the same period in 2023. These results indicate that the Bahamian economy has surpassed pre-pandemic levels.”

The BNSI said the 2024 second quarter saw the highest real GDP since the agency began compiling quarterly statistics due to strong performance in sectors such as agriculture and fisheries, and electricity and gas.

“The second quarter of 2024 recorded the highest real quarterly GDP since the inception of the quarterly series. Key contributors to this performance included the industries of agriculture and fisheries, information and communication, electricity and gas, water supply and sewerage, and accommodation and food services,” said the BNSI report.

Breaking down GDP performance by island, New Providence and Grand Bahama were the main contributors, followed by Abaco, Eleuthera and Exuma. Each island saw an increase in nominal GDP from 2023 with the exception of Andros, Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay, and Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Inagua and other Family Islands.

“The 2024 GDP was $15.833bn in nominal (current) dollars, of which New Providence represented $11.744bn (74.2 percent), Grand Bahama $1.808bn (11.4 percent) and Family Islands, the remaining $2.281bn (14.4 percent),” said the BNSI report.

“A disaggregation of the Family Islands’ share shows the following contributions to the 2024 GDP performance: Abaco, $665m (4.2percent); Eleuthera, $579m (3.7percent); Exuma, $235m (1.5percent); Bimini and the Berry Islands, $404m (2.5 percent); Andros, $125m (0.8 percent); Cat Island, San Salvador and Rum Cay, $83m (0.5 percent); Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Inagua and other Family Islands, $120m (0.8 percent); and Long Island, $70m (0.4 percent).”