By Neil Hartnell

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Air arrivals to The Bahamas fell against 2024 comparatives in eight of the first nine months this year, Central Bank of The Bahamas data released yesterday reveals, although total numbers are up due to the continued growth and expansion of cruise tourism.

The banking industry regulator, unveiling its monthly economic developments report for October 2025, disclosed in data close to the bottom of the back page that April is the only month to enjoy a year-over-year air arrivals increase with numbers up 9 percent, or 14,300 persons, at 173,000. That, though, is likely to have been at least partially driven by the peak Easter holiday weekend this year falling in April whereas it occurred in March in 2024.

All other months have experienced year-over-year declines, albeit by relatively modest numbers and percentages. The greatest drop-off was in August, when air arrivals fell by 6.3 percent or 7,700 year-over-year to116,300, while January was down by 6,600 or 4.66 percent at 134,500.

Air arrivals is not the same as stopover visitors, as the latter only includes persons who remain in The Bahamas for 24 hours, while the former also includes those who are transiting through this nation and do not spend a full day here. Nevertheless, the raw figures unveiled by the Central Bank suggest relative softness in stopover tourism - a category whose visitors typically spend 28 times more than their cruise passenger counterparts.

For the first nine months of 2025, the Central Bank data said air arrivals were only off by 1.9 percent or around 27,800 against prior year comparatives at 1.319m. Total arrivals to The Bahamas were ahead of 2024 at 9.116m as opposed to 8.382m for the first nine months last year, albeit the rate of growth had slowed to 8.7 percent compared to 16.3 percent the year before.

This again confirms that cruise tourism is solely driving the growth in Bahamian visitor arrivals, accounting for almost 7.8m of the 9.116m arrivals for the first nine months of 2025. This compares to almost 7.04m cruise arrivals during the comparative period in 2024 - again indicating that the industry and its private islands are now the increasingly dominant force in Bahamian tourism.

The Central Bank’s October report conceded that stopover tourism growth moving forward will likely be “more tempered” in comparison to the cruise industry, blaming this on a combination of hotel room inventory shortages and reduced consumer confidence in the US.

“Projections are that the pace of growth in the domestic economy will moderate in 2025, relative to 2024, as economic indicators continue to approach their medium-term potential,” the Central Bank said. “In particular, growth prospects are anticipated to remain significantly linked to developments in the tourism sector.

“Although a less dominant weight in tourism earnings, the cruise sector is poised to register robust gains. However, growth in the stopover segment -which remains dependent on trends in the US market - is expected to be more tempered, reflecting accommodation constraints and more subdued consumer confidence in the United States.”

The Central Bank added that “beyond tourism, new and ongoing foreign investment projects, particularly those focused on onshore cruise-related attractions, are expected to support the continued expansion in the construction sector”.

“Nevertheless, downside risks to the outlook have increased against the backdrop of heightened tariffs on international trade and uncertainties surrounding major economies’ trade policies, both of which could dampen tourism demand and constrain global economic growth,” the banking regulator said.

“In addition, external risks remain relevant, such as the direct and indirect effects of escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices….. Tourism output, while at healthy levels, tapered vis-à-vis the previous year as the high value-added stopover segment remained constrained by capacity limitations and reduced demand from the US market.”

Turning to tourism-related data, the Central Bank added: “Recent data from the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) revealed that total departures - net of domestic passengers - [at Lynden Pindling International Airport] edged up by 0.1 percent to 91,022 in October relative to the comparative period in the previous year.

“Specifically, non-US international departures increased by 2.8 percent to 16,159 compared to the same period of 2024. However, US departures fell by 0.4 percent to 74,863. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic declined by 2.4 percent to 1.3m, owing primarily to a 3.5 percent reduction in US departures to 1.2m. Providing some offset, non-US international departures rose by 4.4 percent to 0.2m.”

As for the vacation rental market, the Central Bank report said: “In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that room nights sold increased by 4.6 percent to 36,124 vis-à-vis the same period in 2024. Correspondingly, the occupancy rate for entire place listing edged up to 39.8 percent from 39.6 percent, and hotel comparable listings to 43.3 percent from 41.2 percent.

“The average daily room rate (ADR) reduced for entire place listings by 10.6 percent to $284.87 relative to the same period of 2024. Similarly, the corresponding ADR for hotel comparable listings fell by 4.3 percent to $136.56 in comparison to the previous year.

“On a year-to-date basis, total room nights sold rose by 3.1 percent, and the average daily rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased by 20.9 percent and 3 percent, respectively.”

Elsewhere, the Central Bank said The Bahamas’ foreign currency reserves, which support the fixed one:one exchange rate peg with the US dollar, grew by $123m during October 2025 to close the months at close to $3bn.

“During the month of October, external reserves grew by $123m to $2.93bn, a reversal from the $9.3m decline in the preceding year, owing in part to the receipt of net proceeds from the Government’s external borrowing activities,” it added. “Reflective of this development, the Central Bank’s net foreign currency purchase from the public sector expanded to $165.7m from $18.6m in the prior year.

“Conversely, the bank’s net sales to commercial banks increased to $43.8m from $34.6m in the previous year. Further, commercial banks’ net foreign currency outflows through customers advanced to $45.3m from $31.9m the year earlier.”