By Neil Hartnell

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association’s (BHTA) president yesterday affirmed the 2026 winter season is “pacing ahead” of this year’s performance even as the industry’s line staff union disclosed that some employees were still working “reduced weeks” in November.

Jackson Weech, also vice-president and general manager of operations for Atlantis, told Tribune Business that the upcoming Christmas and New Year period appears positive “straight across the board” while a “strong base” of group business bookings has placed next year’s first quarter on a “solid” footing.

However, Darrin Woods, the Bahamas Hotel, Catering and Allied Workers Union (BHCAWU) president, disclosed that November had been “softer than usual” with some union members and resort workers still not restored to full working weeks despite Thanksgiving last week marking the traditional start of the winter tourism season.

Describing this as “not overly concerning or alarming”, the union chief attributed the relative softness to the ongoing impact that the Trump tariffs and other economic uncertainties are having in the US - The Bahamas’ largest source market that generates around 90 percent of annual visitors.

Acknowledging that these are factors outside The Bahamas’ control, Mr Wood said the union is focused on training and preparing its members for fundamental changes to the world of work - especially the potential introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), which he branded an issue where “we can’t bury our heads in the sand”.

Both Mr Weech and Mr Woods, talking ahead of today’s BHTA and tourism industry annual general meeting (AGM), spoke out after the Central Bank of The Bahamas revealed that air arrivals to this nation fell against 2024 comparatives in eight of the first nine months this year.

The banking industry regulator, unveiling its monthly economic developments report for October 2025, disclosed that April is the only month to enjoy a year-over-year air arrivals increase with numbers up 9 percent, or 14,300 persons, at 173,000. That, though, is likely to have been at least partially driven by the peak Easter holiday weekend this year falling in April whereas it occurred in March in 2024.

All other months have experienced year-over-year declines, albeit by relatively modest numbers and percentages. The greatest drop-off was in August, when air arrivals fell by 6.3 percent or 7,700 year-over-year to116,300, while January was down by 6,600 or 4.66 percent at 134,500.

This was pounced upon by Kwasi Thompson, the Opposition’s finance spokesman, who asserted that the figures have exposed what he called the Government’s “tourism illusion”.

He argued: “The latest data from the Central Bank of The Bahamas reveals that despite the Government’s claims of booming air and sea arrivals, air arrivals have actually declined in eight of the first nine months of 2025 when compared to 2024. The Central Bank’s monthly economic and financial developments report shows a drop of about 1.9 percent, or roughly 27,800 passengers.

“August saw the steepest fall at more than 6 percent. January declined nearly 5 percent. These are our supposed peak periods, yet the numbers continue to slide…. Just a couple of months ago, deputy prime minister Chester Cooper announced that The Bahamas had broken tourism records for three consecutive years and suggested 2025 would be another record-setter. But the Central Bank’s own reporting exposes the truth.

“The Government is blending cruise passengers and air arrivals to sell the illusion of a booming sector. Cruise visitors typically spend far less, and air arrivals include thousands of people who only transit through The Bahamas. They are not hotel guests, they are not booking tours, and they are not supporting local businesses. The higher-spending stopover market is weakening, and many islands are already seeing fewer overnight visitors. Businesses feel it. Workers feel it. Communities feel it,” Mr Thompson continued.

“The empty boasts about top-line arrival numbers only serve to deny the troubling reality. The critical stopover segment has been in decline for a year-and-a-half, even as most Caribbean destinations continue to record increases in stopover tourism. While our regional counterparts are implementing strategies to grow high-value tourism, The Bahamas is moving in the opposite direction.”

Mr Woods took a more sanguine view while praising Atlantis over its plans to create more than 350 full-time jobs through The Cove renovations plus the addition of new retail, restaurant and other amenities. “It means they are not taking their customers for granted and are trying to keep up with changing trends in the industry and give guests options,” he said of the Paradise Island mega resort.

“Anything that tries to keep the numbers up is good. We’re still struggling a bit, but can put that down to the tariff wars that are going on. We have seen a softer kind of November than usual around that time, but looking at what’s happened, Thanksgiving is gone and Christmas will be picking up. So when they [Atlantis] start renovations next year it will be a positive boost to the tourism product and something that will be welcome.”

Asked to explain the softer-than-expected November, Mr Woods told Tribune Business: “We’ve seen people working reduced weeks. By this time it would have usually picked up. It’s softer than last year, but not overly concerning or alarming. We know that people are adjusting to the tariff wars and higher costs in the US. When things start to level off somewhat, we’ll be a bit better or a lot better than we are.

“We’re hoping that once everything begins to level off over there then it will pick up here and we return to 2024 numbers or even better. We know the factors that have caused that. These are things outside our control. There’s not much we can do with that until things on the outside get better, but we are doing the best we can to prepare for when they do.”

Mr Woods said the union had seen a growing number of workers opting for early retirement before they reach the age of 65, and added that preparing hotel staff for AI - which he acknowledged could impact parts of the industry - is “a tall task but we cannot wait for it to come”.

The BHTA’s MR Weech, meanwhile, in response to the Central Bank data said the resort and tourism industry is working closely with the Ministry of Tourism, Investment and Aviation to craft strategies that “arrest… anything that detracts from the continued building of the land portion” of tourism and air arrivals.

Ponting to the “very strenuous efforts that are being made”, he added that the sector is already seeing “tangible” returns and the “fruits” of its efforts to grow airlift from Canada with the arrival of Porter Airlines and increased service from legacy carriers.

Turning to the Christmas and New Year, as well as the early 2026, outlook, Mr Weech told Tribune Business: “Straight across the board I think we’re going to get through festive in a satisfactory manners then, certainly, looking at 2026, all indications are across the board that the first quarter is going to be solid for us.

“There’s a strong group base across our major hotels and that is going to drive occupancy through the first quarter. Again, all things are lining up. We think the first quarter is going to be strong. At this stage, it is pacing ahead of the 2025 first quarter.”