By SIMON

WITH MONTHS to go before the 2026 general election, the major parties are in a close contest for the support and seats required to form the next government that will lead the country into the next decade.

The Golden Isles by-election, where voter turnout was 49 percent, suggested pathways cum lessons for the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) and the Free National Movement (FNM).

Electoral success next year will in great measure depend on whether the parties can hew a path to victory by learning both subtle and glaring lessons, developing winning strategies at the same time.

Voter apathy and indifference--born from cynicism and deep-seated frustration with political leaders--is a global phenomenon, with Caribbean accents in those countries that held general elections this year. Voter turnout typically declines after the glow and enthusiasm of independence.

Still, turnout is made worse by the effects of external shockwaves on small populaces--like natural disasters, global financial crises, unfair practices by global powerhouses, and pandemics--compounded by perennial development challenges, often poor governance, and widespread corruption in government.

Voter turnout this year in St. Lucia was approximately 48 percent, 39.96 percent in Jamaica, and 54 percent in Trinidad and Tobago.

One exception is St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where an angry and fed-up populace revolted against the 24-year rule of 79-year-old Ralph Gonsalves. The turnout was approximately 62 percent.

Despite the revolt, approximately 40 percent of eligible voters did not vote.

The 69 percent of voters who went to the polls in Suriname in May, however, might be an outlier with specific circumstances.

A Nassau Guardian story this past Tuesday noted the response of Prime Minister Philip Davis to concerns about voter apathy. “Davis was asked about concerns [sic] voter apathy,” the story reported, “but downplayed them.”

“This is democracy,” Mr. Davis stated in the article. “Voters have a choice to vote or not to vote. That’s a choice. And if they don’t vote, that’s a choice. Democracy has freedom to vote, so if they don’t want to vote or participate, that’s their choice.

“For my part,” he continued, “I’m going to ensure those persons who support me, support my party. I’m going to ensure that I inspire them to vote, and they are not apathetic.”

Approximately one-third of voters stayed home at the last general election. The PLP balloted under 35 percent of registered voters. The party won a huge share of seats but did not gain the majority of registered voters, the first prime minister in an independent Bahamas in his first term not to receive this affirmation by the electorate.

Mr. Davis and his party did not receive the support of the majority of voters. One would have thought that this prime minister would give a more vigorous response to the low level of support he garnered, and to increasing apathy.

He might have been less dismissive of those who may not be inclined to vote, and more enthusiastic about boosting turnout, as a leader committed to a more vibrant democracy.

Moreover, does he not want to leave a legacy that shows greater popular support and percentage of the vote in a potential second term?

Alas, his comments seem to reveal a certain cynicism at play, which may reflect a feeling of strength on one side and a warning sign on the other. The PLP has an advantage when it comes to activating its base. Despite grumblings, PLPs tend to come home during elections.

Quite a number of FNM base voters, on the other hand, are prone to “being cute and special,” and not voting because of dissatisfaction with their party or leader.

The 2021 election results showed a number of close contests in some seats that the FNM may have won if the election was held later. With the FNM base collapsed--due to lack of support from its base and disgruntled voters--the PLP won certain seats the FNM might have retained

Despite the spin from some in the PLP, however, the mood at the recount in Golden Isles revealed a subdued PLP and a more hopeful FNM. The FNM won nine of the 17 polling divisions.

Keen and experienced observers, ranging from former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham to former PLP cabinet minister Sean McWeeeney, KC, noted how well the FNM did, and that the party had a potential path to victory.

Moreover, they suggested that any giddiness by the PLP is unwarranted, especially after it applied maximum effort in terms of money, fulltime ground troops, and the resources of the state to fix infrastructure.

The PLP had the power of incumbency and a three-week headstart on the FNM. It also registered a number of new voters, which the FNM failed to do. Instead, it dithered in its decision to contest the seat, which cost Brian Brown votes.

The PLP goes into the general election with a likely lead. The party has myriad strengths, including seasoned election coordinators and a powerful machinery. If the FNM wants to win, it will need organizers with the experience and capacity of a Jerome Fitzgerald.

It will need enough money to be competitive, better messaging, and a clear electoral strategy in terms of targeted seats.

And it needs a message of specific, clear, doable ideas targeted to specific voters--including younger voters--on aspirational issues ranging from better economic prospects to improved basic public services, such as healthcare.

If the FNM needs to make changes at every level in terms of election personnel and organizers, then it must be ruthless in doing so. The test for who can best lead and populate certain efforts in areas, such as on the ground operations and communications, is not solely loyalty to a leader.

The test is capacity, competence, and results.

As the incumbent administration, the PLP faces the massive headwinds of the affordability crisis, which many Bahamians believe have been made even worse thanks to terrible decisions on electricity costs, VAT, taxation, and other poor choices.

There is widespread disgust among voters in the Caribbean and The Bahamas that politicians in office are more fixated on feathering and decorating their proverbial nests with largesse and contracts than they are with helping citizens struggling to make a decent living.

Given the low vote the PLP received in 2021, and the concerns of the current electorate, the majority of Bahamians may want the PLP gone from office. This is good news for the FNM.

However, the difficult news for the FNM is this: Does the party have the capacity, discipline, and strategy to garner enough of its base, while attracting disgruntled PLPs and potential Coalition of Independent (COI) voters who may want to vote against the incumbent government?

If the FNM cannot adequately mobilize these votes in key constituencies it will likely lose. Alternatively, if it plays its cards exceedingly well, it may win a potentially close contest.

It may be in the PLP’s interest to have a relatively low voter turnout. It may also be in its strategic interest to help fund independent candidates and to support certain spoilers to siphon votes from the FNM in seats winnable by the opposition.

Either party can win. Mobilization and motivation are key. Both must register new voters who will commit to them, while getting their winning combination to the polls.

Election soon come!