By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Realtors yesterday predicted an up to 30 percent increase in deal volumes for 2025 with the Bahamian high-end property market said to already be “running on all cylinders”.

Mario Carey, principal of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate MCR Group Bahamas, told Tribune Business that his firm saw around a 20 percent increase in business for 2024 and forecast that it could see an even greater jump this year “if we are smart enough”.

Affirming that “demand is sure surpassing supply”, he acknowledged that the buoyant real estate market would again spark questions over whether Bahamians are being “priced out” of property and home ownership but argued that persons would also have to “revisit” their lifestyles and financial planning (see other article on Page 1B).

Meanwhile Ryan Knowles, founder and chief executive of Maison Bahamas Real Estate, echoed Mr Carey in telling this newspaper that the firm’s 2024 sales volumes tripled and show no signs of slowing down entering 2025.

He forecast that the company’s 2025 activity could exceed the prior year by between 5-10 percent based on initial activity indicators, and revealed that Maison Bahamas’ website has “been on fire” with the 200 monthly inquiries received since November more than double the normal hit rate.

“Just busy. No complaints,” was how Mr Carey described high-end market activity to-date. “I think despite whatever the Bahamian real estate market in 2025 should be very strong. I’ve noticed a shift in the buyer profile, especially in the luxury market, becoming more American whereas before it was more Canadian and European.

“That means it’s more lifestyle because Americans don’t get the benefit of tax residency status. It’s a part of their family office planning, a part of some tax structures that benefit investors. I think The Bahamas is really being discovered because of its close proximity to the US, and we’re out of the [presidential] election, out of COVID.

“One of the good things about COVID is most of our policies were pretty liberal. People are discovering just how close we are. I think there’s a lot of opportunity for the Government to be properly advised by real estate professionals to implement new policies to really scale up in this space. I think they need to look at ways to attract more users. I think the package is good with condo hotels. I think we can improve on residential sales.”

Mr Carey suggested “a social rider” should be attached to foreign buyers purchasing properties valued at $1m or more - the threshold at which they can apply for economic permanent residency. He suggested that such purchasers be required to invest a sum equivalent to 2-3 percent of the property’s value into a fund, which would be managed independently of government and direct the monies to combat social challenges.

Estimating that Americans now account for between 35-40 percent of prospective international purchasers, as opposed to the more traditional 10-15 percent share when the market was dominated by Canadians and Europeans, the MCR Bahamas chief said of the firm’s 2024 performance: “We were very pleased. We saw an increase.

“Our business increased by probably about 20 percent but I think that, in 2025, we can probably get closer to 30 percent, maybe even a bit more if we’re smart enough. I think a lot of the growth is going to come from the Family Islands.”

Mr Knowles added that the record 2024 annual profits unveiled by major Wall Street firms such as JP Morgan, together with a buoyant stock market and Bitcoin prices trading high, “means there is a lot of money out there and people are feeling confident”. That, coupled with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, is “good news for us because the better Wall Street does, the better we do”.

“2024 for us as firm was very strong. We tripled our business in 2024,” Mr Knowles told Tribune Business. “The market in some areas likely suffered because it was an election year, and buyers and sellers waited on the sidelines to wait and see how things turned out. There was a lot of wait and see.

“But volumes have picked up ever since November. Our inquiries were much higher right after the election. We’re seeing inquiries go up. We’re putting listings on the market and within a we have a sale for it and there’s a buyer. Those are for properties in the $1m-$4m range. We’ve seen a couple of those since November; they’re listed and sold.

“There’s a sense in the market of a bit more confidence and a bit more of a sense of urgency which we didn’t have last year.” Mr Knowles also voiced hope that Bitcoin’s increasing price will grow the wealth of crypto and digital assets investors, thus creating a new buyer pool with disposable income to invest in high-end Bahamian real estate.

Acknowledging the inventory shortages, which have resulted in buyer demand outstripping available-for-sale properties and keeping demand high, he said the emergence of new properties such as the Ocean Club Four Seasons Residences on Paradise Island, Aqualina’s second tower and GoldWynn’s phase two will provide much-needed new product.

“I think it’s going to be a stronger year for sure,” Mr Knowles said of 2025. “Hopefully we’re going to see a little more inventory go on the market. But, as far as deal volume, I think we’re going to be up 5-10 percent over the last year. We don’t have the [election] uncertainty.

“We are seeing some demand and interest from [UK] non-domiciles. We’re seeing them come over and go back to us. With people making good money, and things going well, that will sustain the spending on discretionary products. To the extent that continues to happen, we will be poised for a very strong year.

“We barely have time. When you forget to eat lunch and are staying in the office until 6pm-7pm at night you know you are busy,” Mr Knowles continued. “Our website has been on fire from so many inquiries. We’ve been getting 200 a month and that’s above normal. Our normal was 80 or so per month. They’ve more than doubled.

“It’s been a good start to the year and let’s hope it continues. There’s so many knock-on effects when you have more activity in the real estate sector. It helps the stores, pool companies, landscapers. It helps everyone. The better the real estate market does, the better for everyone, not to mention all the taxes paid to the Government.”

Noting that Bahamian real estate is largely “insulated” from global geo political strife, such as the war in Ukraine, since this nation was seen as a relative safe haven, the Maison Bahamas chief argued that “the one thing that will spur” the market and US economy on even more will be the timing and extent of further interest cuts by the Federal Reserve.

John Christie, H. G. Christie’s chief executive and principal, voiced optimism that 2025 will represent a “continuation” of the trends and activity enjoyed by Bahamian realtors last year. “It might even be stronger,” he said. “The only problem might be limited inventory, but the outlook is strong.

“Ever since Trump get elected it seems people are freer with their money and people are looking at more acreage and development-type properties. It’s not just homes. The stock market is high, Bitcoin is high and people are putting back into real estate to secure their assets. Everything is running on all cylinders.

“From what I can see 2025 is going to be very similar [to 2024]. I’ve been expecting it to slow down for the last two years but it never did. It’ll be great for the economy. Every sale pays 10 percent to the Government so more money is coming in.”