By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

New Providence’s property market is “ramping up”, a prominent realtor asserted yesterday, with contracted home sales having beaten prior year comparisons in every quarter during 2024.

David Morley, broker/owner of Morley Realty, told Tribune Business his firm’s analysis of industry sales data confirmed the sector’s strong “momentum” heading into 2025 as completed residential home sales for the 2024 fourth quarter increased by 65.8 percent year-over-year.

Using figures derived from the Bahamas Real Estate Association’s (BREA) Multiple Listing System (MLS), which is estimated to capture 60 percent and more of industry sales and thus provide a good indicator of overall market activity, Morley Realty’s 2024 fourth quarter report also noted that contracted New Providence home sales for the three months to end-December were almost 20 percent ahead of 2023.

And, with completed New Providence home sales hitting their highest levels since the 2023 third quarter, Mr Morley told this newspaper that the data shows “2024 was a better year” than its predecessor for real estate-related activity on an island that is home to 70 percent of The Bahamas’ population.

“There’s some interesting situations if you actually look at it,” he said of the analysis performed by his firm. “For example, it talks about how for quarter four the numbers may have dropped on certain of the indicators from the previous quarter. But, more importantly, if you look at the each of the quarters for 2024 and compare them to the same quarter in 2023, last year was a better year.

“Even if look at sales only for the fourth quarter in 2024 versus the fourth quarter in 2023, the number of new listings, new contracts, all that data shows a better market than we had in 2023.... Overall, it was an encouraging wrap-up for 2024 and for continuing that momentum going into 2025.”

Pointing to New Providence specifically, Mr Morley added: “If you look at the fourth quarter’s contracted sales for homes, it was higher than in the 2023 fourth quarter. If you look at the number of contracted sales for the whole of 2024 it was higher than it was in 2023.

“To me, overall it’s showing a ramping up of contracted sales, which means the demand is still there. And it’s encouraging that there’s new inventory out there. We don’t have a shortage issue here on inventory. Obviously the demand is still good, and buyers still have some choices out there.”

MLS data showed there were 135 new home listings on New Providence during the 2024 fourth quarter. While this represented a 5.5 percent increase over the third quarter figures, this number was still some 25.4 percent down on prior year comparatives from the 2023 fourth quarter.

“The volume of new listings remains lower than late 2023 levels. Despite a small quarter-over-quarter increase, overall inventory is not as large as at the start of 2024,” Morley Realty said in its report. However, as with the prior seven quarters going back to early 2023, new listings in the final three months of 2024 still matched combined contracted and completed sales to affirm a reasonable number of properties are available for sale.

“The volume of contracted sales has shown a slow increase, as indicated by the year-over-year rise,” Morley Realty added of the New Providence homes market. “Although there is a quarter-over-quarter decrease, this is typical for the fourth quarter. The volume of completed sales continued its upward trend from the 2023 fourth quarter, with more home sales being completed, similar to volumes seen in early 2023.

“The list-to-sale price ratio increased, nearing its highest level in the past eight quarters, indicating sellers are achieving prices closer to their asking prices. Homes sold nearly a month faster in the fourth quarter 2024 compared to the 2024 third quarter, with days on the market decreasing both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.”

The list-to-sale price compares the original sales price against the last listed price to measure how close sellers are to achieving their initial asking price. The 96 percent ratio for the 2024 fourth quarter, which represented increases of 2.4 percent and 5.6 percent year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, indicates sellers are largely receiving what they are seeking.

And the average 102 days that New Providence homes spent on the market during the three months to end-December 2024 was a 10.1 percent and 23.9 percent year-over-year, and month-over-month, decline respectively signalling that properties are moving quicker once listed.

“The sellers are betting better prices and their properties are on the market for a shorter period of time,” Mr Morley confirmed. “2024, for my company, it was a great year. We were higher than we were in 2023. All my seasoned agents who have been with me for at least two years, their performance had increased. They had a lot more sales than in the previous year. Each of them, their productivity level had increased in 2024.”

As to what this means for the current year, he forecast that The Bahamas will follow US real estate trends by matching or exceeding 2024’s performance. “I think it’s going to be just as good if not better than last year,” Mr Morley told Tribune Business. 

“From The Bahamas’ perspective, if you look at the volume of inventory that came on to the MLS in 2024 compared to 2023, it’s a lot higher than actual sales. I think that we’re set up with good inventory to meet the demand that’s out there from people who are actively looking.

“Bahamians are being more easily qualified by the banks because we’re now far away from the pandemic and there’s stabilisation in the economy. I’m predicting it’s going to be a good year if not surpassing 2024, which wouldn’t surprise me. The Bahamian economy has traditionally done far better under a Republican government than a Democrat government in the US, so I’m telling all my colleagues: ‘Bring it on. Let’s go’.

“I don’t foresee anything on the horizon that would otherwise cause any issues with regard to local investors or international investors investing in The Bahamas. I think The Bahamas has proven to be a very solid ground for real estate investment.”

Mr Morley said his firm’s analysis of the MLS data showed that the five major islands - New Providence, Grand Bahama, Abaco, Exuma and Eleuthera - each have to be treated as separate real estate markets rather than one unified Bahamian market given the divergence in trends and activity between them.

“Even if you look at Grand Bahama’s report for the fourth quarter, and go back and look at it year-over-year, you are seeing increases in activity in Grand Bahama,” he added. “You have to treat each one of those markets as its own unique market, which is what it is.”

Morley Realty, in its market analysis, said: “In the 2024 fourth quarter, The Bahamas’ real estate market demonstrated many mixed trends, with notable variations across the island markets and property types. While certain areas exhibited strong growth, others faced declines, showing the shifting dynamics as markets adapt to evolving buyer and seller behaviour.

“New listings showed significant declines in some island markets, such as Abaco and New Providence/Paradise Island, but areas like Exuma and Eleuthera experienced small growth year-over-year. Quarter-over-quarter, however, there was significant growth for new listings in Exuma, suggesting heightened seller activity.

“Contracted and completed sales revealed further differences. Exuma and Grand Bahama/Freeport showed substantial gains in completed home sales compared to the prior quarter. On the other hand, New Providence and Abaco experienced mixed performance, with Abaco experiencing an overall decline in properties going under contract and being sold. This indicates differing levels of demand across islands and property types,” Morley Realty added.

“Sales prices painted a similarly varied picture. Both median and average home prices surged in Exuma, Grand Bahama/Freeport and Eleuthera, reflecting growing interest in these areas. Conversely, Abaco’s median home price dipped, while land sales in this region saw impressive price growth, potentially influenced by higher-value transactions.”

Further highlighting the differences between islands, Morley Realty added: “Days on Market (DOM) trends highlighted lengthening sales cycles in several markets. Notably, Grand Bahama/Freeport saw significant decreases in DOM for both homes and land sales quarter-over-quarter, signaling cautious buyer behaviour.

“Meanwhile, Exuma and Eleuthera homes during the 2024 fourth quarter sat on the market for slightly longer as there were both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year increases. The average list-to-sale price ratio remained relatively stable, with many of the islands experiencing declines.

“Sellers in Abaco were a lot firmer on home and land prices, while Eleuthera saw a slight decrease in the ratio for homes and land, suggesting a bit more flexibility in the sales price for the Eleuthera market. Overall, the 2024 fourth quarter highlighted a dynamic and differing market landscape across the islands,” the company added.

“Increases in sales and prices in island markets like Exuma and Eleuthera contrast with the cooling activity seen in Abaco. As markets continue to adjust, localised conditions will play a big role in shaping trends moving forward into the new year.”