By FAY SIMMONS

Tribune Business Reporter

jsimmons@tribunemedia.net

An Abaco hotelier yesterday said resort bookings are still being affected by global geopolitical tensions and tariff-related economic uncertainty even though summer 2025 is matching prior years.

Dr Larry Carroll, managing director and owner of the Sandpiper Inn, confirmed that summer bookings have been at a similar level to previous years including 2024’s record-breaking performance.

Speaking to Tribune Business, Dr Carroll said the slowdown in bookings was expected as travel tends to fall-off during the hurricane season. And, while the overall numbers are “average”, they are aligned with the season’s trend.

“Things are to be expected for this time of year. Things start to slow down around the start of the hurricane season, so I would say occupancy is where it’s supposed to be right now,” said Dr Carroll. He added that bookings have been “unpredictable” due to rising international pressures.

“Things have been up and down from the beginning of the year. With the unrest and tariffs and everything, it’s very unpredictable. The numbers haven’t been great, but they aren’t bad either. Our bills are still being paid so I’d say things are about average,” said Dr Carroll.

During the 2025-2026 Budget debate, Chester Cooper, deputy prime minister, said the tourism sector is bracing for “headwinds” due to US policy changes, including travel advisories, tighter immigration laws and economic uncertainty, begin to impact travel to the Caribbean.

He said the effects are already being felt in future bookings, which show signs of decline and linked the “softening in the tourism travel markets” to geopolitical developments largely beyond The Bahamas’ control.

“Taxes and tariffs beyond our control will likely drive-up the cost of living and precipitate uncertainty,” Mr Cooper said. “Much stricter and changing immigration laws will affect Caribbean nationals, who may face challenges when travelling outside of the US, and that will cause them to stay put. The possibility of a US recession in the second half of 2025 is also another serious factor we must stay alert about.”

Mr Cooper referenced economic forecasts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which project up to a 45 percent chance of a US recession - a scenario that would likely temper discretionary travel.

Still, he expressed cautious optimism, pointing to The Bahamas’ close proximity to the US and a trend toward last-minute bookings as advantages. “Our strategies have a short-term reactive component but are also very long-term focused,” Mr Cooper said. “We will continue to have strategic focused marketing.”

From January to April 2025, The Bahamas welcomed 4.3m foreign air and sea arrivals, a significant increase over the 3.9m during the same period last year. That represents an 11.7 percent year-over-year jump and a 65 percent rise from the same period in 2019. Abaco recorded a seven percent increase in arrivals, with air travel up nearly 14 percent.