By Simon

Both major parties are reportedly finding that neither is clearly nor decisively ahead as they prepare for the next general election. The race appears generally tight, with the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) and the Free National Movement (FNM), seeing certain advantages, weaknesses, and risks. Insiders are trying to answer a basic concern: “Why are so many voters undecided?”

When Bahamians voted overwhelmingly against Perry Christie after his second term and Dr Hubert Minnis after his single term there was a palpable feeling of exhaustion with the incumbents. Change was in the air.

Both leaders had become unpopular for varying reasons that Christie lost his Centreville seat and Minnis’s vote count in Killarney was significantly reduced. Their personalities became a political burden they could not overcome.

Prime Minister Davis was never as popular or charismatic a figure on the order of Hubert Ingraham or Perry Christie. Still, he is not today as deeply unpopular as Christie and Minnis became. Many find him personable.

Though this election is a contest between the Davis-led PLP and the Michael Pintard-led FNM, there is a much broader horizon and context for the upcoming vote.

Many voters, most especially younger voters, feel that it makes no difference which party is elected. Even many older voters are cynical, tired of broken promises, and dissatisfied with the policy and leadership offerings of the major parties. For many, there is still a lack of clear and compelling choices.

The pox on both houses’ syndrome, regularly fuelled by the media, including in editorials which often do not make distinctions and nuances, is entrenched in the minds of voters. It remains mostly the responsibility of the parties to demonstrate in the words of former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham, how they are, “distinctly different”.

Such distinctions and comparisons help to motivate undecided voters, especially those fed up with politics in general, the failures of government, and the parlous state of the country.

For many voters, the country has been engulfed in a downward spiral and a vortex of complacency for years. Much of our public infrastructure is crumbling. New Providence is filthy and derelict. There is widespread social decay and increasing mental health challenges.

The more lucrative stopover tourism economy is in decline, with tourism requiring imaginative thinking and deep structural changes. Crime remains rampant. The delivery of basic government services is appalling and worsening. Public healthcare is in a dire state.

We are recovering still from economic and other ravages of the 2008 Great Recession, COVID-19, a series of hurricanes including Dorian, an entrenched cost of living crisis, and the combustible economic and geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty unleashed by Donald Trump.

Cost of living pressures have eased in some ways. However, The Bahamas remains an expensive place to live and many people are struggling, including middle class voters who constitute a significant number of seats in New Providence.

Most voters are not looking for a political saviour per se. They understand that the country’s structural problems are not easily resolved. Still, they desperately desire political leadership that is authentic and concerned about their daily problems. They want to hear reasonable policy ideas to address what is severely broken in government. They hunger for genuine empathy.

When Bahamians look at many in the political and economic elites, they see men and women luxuriating in gilded and golden cages. They see health care, insurance, and other monopolies that seem callous and indifferent to their suffering.

They see a system rigged, with gaming bosses and certain monopolists enjoying giddy profits as Bahamians go hungry and cannot afford mortgages and rentals. They see videos going viral of expensive weddings held overseas as many cannot afford medication for cancer, diabetes, hypertension, and other maladies.

Many Bahamians believe that the political class is bankrupt of ideas, values, and empathy, living their so-called best lives as income inequality and poverty continue to climb.

Lincoln Bain and the Coalition for Independents (COI) understand much of this. Bain makes promises that are unrealistic and unaffordable. But we know from the history of populism that when people are struggling or desperate, populists make gains, whether they win office or not.

With the Democratic National Alliance moribund, the Coalition for Independents will be the recipient of many protest votes by disgruntled voters, some of whom want to send a “message” to the major parties. The COI will not win the government. Nevertheless, who does it threaten politically?

Many voters are hungry for a new period of “reform and modernisation” on the magnitude of what delivered by Hubert Ingraham during three terms in office. Bahamians do not believe that any prime minister since Ingraham, has delivered anywhere near the quality of vision and change the country desires.

Many question whether Davis and the PLP or Pintard and the FNM can offer substantive change, which is both risk and opportunity for the parties and leaders.

At the last election, amidst COVID-19 and a wave of infections, hospitalisations, and death, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis unwisely called an early election. He was likely exhausted following Hurricane Dorian and the pandemic.

Though it is unlikely the FNM would have won reelection, it would have fared better once COVID restrictions were gone and the effects of an opening economy were felt. Though the PLP has repeatedly tried to take credit for the economic recovery, the global recovery had already begun before they took office.

The 2021 election results showed a number of close contests in some seats the FNM may have won if the election was held later. With the FNM base collapsed, the PLP won certain seats the FNM could have retained. The PLP won a huge share of seats but the party did not gain the majority of registered voters.

Approximately one-third of voters stayed home at the last election. The PLP only garnered approximately 30 percent of registered voters. Though it is likely that there will be more people voting this election, a questions remains as to how many voters will return.

How many will vote for an independent or the COI in various constituencies because of deep dissatisfaction with the major parties? With small margins in some constituencies, the major parties cannot afford to lose too many votes, especially if it is a close election.

Prime Minister Davis and the PLP have an advantage when it comes to getting out their base. Despite grumblings and misgivings, PLPs tend to come home during elections.

Quite a number of FNM base voter are prone to “being cute and special” and not voting because of dissatisfaction with their party or leader. Despite more FNMs having now returned home, the party still has a good ways to go to motivate many of its base voters.

To his potential peril but also great advantage, Michael Pintard is still relatively unknown by a vast number of Bahamians. If he can articulate his biography and vision for the country he can attract many more voters.

Pintard is a blank slate in many ways. But if he does not adroitly and quickly exploit this potential advantage, Davis and the PLP will fill in the blanks, as they have started to do.

Both parties and leaders are seeking to boost their advantages, to minimise risk, and to seize and exploit opportunities, even as unseen events and mistakes can scramble an election or repel voters, especially with many still undecided.

• MORE NEXT WEEK.