By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian auto dealers are optimistic new vehicle sales can beat 2024’s banner total by 5-10 percent if they enjoy a repeat of last year’s fourth quarter, asserting: “Then we’ll really be ahead of ourselves.”

Ben Albury, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s (BMDA) president, told Tribune Business he was “pleasantly surprised” that industry-wide sales had kept pace with 2024’s strong performance for the five months through to end-May 2025.

Voicing confidence that the sector will “match or surpass” last year’s tally, he added that the fourth quarter had been the strongest three-month period for 2024 and any repeat will likely take BMDA members collectively beyond last year’s total.

With June and 2025 half-year figures still awaited, Ben Albury told this newspaper that his dealership, Bahamas Bus and Truck, had been able to largely hold new vehicle prices to consumers despite having to contend with “chaotic” volatility in shipping costs and price increases from some manufacturers.

And Fred Albury, the Auto Mall principal who is namesake, asserted that the Bahamian auto market is “a bit more diluted” due to the increased competition provided by new market entrants such as EV Motors, Sebas Bastian’s electric vehicle dealership, and an influx of Chinese-made autos in general.

However, he disclosed that Auto Mall, the dealer for the Toyota, Hyundai and BMW brands, is “holding to the forecast” provided to suppliers in its “annual plan” on anticipated vehicle sales. And, echoing Ben Albury, he added that “unless tourism takes a nosedive” the Bahamian auto industry remains poised to enjoy a fourth consecutive strong annual sales performance.

New vehicle sales are frequently perceived as a good gauge of an economy’s health, and the strength of consumer demand, given that they are susceptible to changes in earnings, purchasing power and consumer confidence. “Right now, we are looking almost exactly on pace with the excellent year we had last year, which is very encouraging,” Ben Albury told Tribune Business.

“It looks like, all things considered, we’ll at least match or surpass last year’s numbers. It will be nice to surpass another high, but we’ll have to wait it out as there’s quite a bit of the year to go. These figures [for the first five months of 2025] are showing it was pretty much flat. That’s very good considering the success we experienced last year.

“I’m hoping that the trend is going to continue on. For us to be doing as well as we are, I’m very happy with that.” The BMDA president added that a review of the auto industry’s 2024 sales figures showed that the fourth quarter, or final three months of the year between October and end-December, was the strongest in terms of deal closings.

“It seems like our best numbers were produced in the last quarter,” Ben Albury added. “That was kind of what took us past the finish line... Our current numbers are even slightly ahead of last year. It looks like we could be 5-10 percent ahead of last year once we get all the reports in for June.

“The fourth quarter was the most robust out of the four quarters last year. If that continues again this year, we’ll really be ahead of ourselves. We’re seeing a strong interest in our commercial lines, construction, delivery, that sort of vehicle, and I think the banks are still very interested in financing once you qualify and meet the criteria necessary. Once these are in place, the banks are very aggressive.”

Fred Albury said vehicle sales had “tapered off” once summer had arrived following a “pretty strong” 2025 first quarter. Describing this as consistent with historical trends and patterns, the Auto Mall chief added: “In comparison with the year before, it is down on certain brands as well.

“Then you have got more players in the game, so the market is diluted a bit more on [sales] levels out there. The electric vehicles have a place in the market and are doing reasonably well, and you’ve got other Chinese brands coming into the market, which has depressed prices. They are getting more market share out there.

“Toyota is holding its own pretty well. It’s more the lower-priced end of the market that is being more diluted. The Chinese brands are capturing more of the used car market as well. We used to have a lot of used cars coming in from Japan, and that has slowed down a bit because the Chinese are capturing market share.”

Fred Albury confirmed that new auto sales for 2025 to-date “are holding similar to what 2024 was”, and suggested the market’s true size and activity may not have been fully captured in the numbers because not all vendors are BMDA members.

“I think the forecast going forward will be similar to the first half. We’re holding to our forecast in our annual plan,” he said of Auto Mall. “We have to do an annual plan for our suppliers and are holding to our forecast. I think the second half of the year will be reasonably OK.

“Unless we see tourism take a nosedive, the economy is still moving along at a pretty good speed. This will probably be the fourth good year back-to-back.” Both Alburys agreed that the Bahamian auto industry must make the most of these strong-performing years given the sector’s cyclical nature and the tendency for expansion to be followed by downturns.

“Speaking to people there’s a lot of optimism. We’ve seen a lot of new inventory and brands being introduced,” Ben Albury said. “From most people I talk to, and talking to me, everyone’s happy we’ve not lost a step.

“In this industry you tend to have a couple of years that are really good, then have a couple of years that are really bad and which you have to prepare for. It’s good to be on the upward end of that, rather than the downward end.”

The BMDA president added that, although the post-COVID supply chain and order backlog has been virtually eliminated, “there’s been some issues with shipping costs”. He explained: “Shipping costs have been volatile, and that’s something we have to keep an eye on. Other than that we’ve been able to get the product; it’s just monitoring the cost.

“For us, it’s [shipping costs] been chaotic and a little bit all over the place, and we’ve seem some manufacturers doing increases, so that’s something we have to be mindful of. Our vehicle prices have not changed very much but it’s something you have to be aware of to make sure it doesn’t get out of hand.”