By JADE RUSSELL

Tribune Staff Reporter

jrussell@tribunemedia.net

THE country’s tourism sector is bracing for headwinds as US policy changes, including travel advisories, tighter immigration laws, and economic uncertainty, begin to impact travel to the Caribbean.

Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper, addressing the House of Assembly during yesterday’s 2025/2026 Budget debate, said the effects are already being felt in future bookings, which show signs of decline. He linked the “softening in the tourism travel markets” to geopolitical developments largely beyond The Bahamas’ control.

“Taxes and tariffs beyond our control will likely drive-up cost of living and precipitate uncertainty,” Mr Cooper said. “Much stricter and changing immigration laws will affect Caribbean nationals, who may face challenges when travelling outside of the USA, and that will cause them to stay put. The possibility of a US recession in the second half of 2025 is also another serious factor we must stay alert about.”

Mr Cooper referenced economic forecasts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which project up to a 45 percent chance of a US recession, a scenario that would likely temper discretionary travel.

Still, he expressed cautious optimism, pointing to The Bahamas’ close proximity to North America and a trend toward last-minute bookings as advantages.

“Our strategies have a short-term reactive component but is also very long-term focused,” he said. “We will continue to have strategic focused marketing.”

The minister also highlighted 2024 as a record-breaking year, with more than 11 million total visitors, including nine million cruise passengers. 

From January to April 2025, the country welcomed 4.3 million foreign air and sea arrivals, a significant increase over the 3.9 million during the same period last year. That represents an 11.7 percent year-over-year jump and a 65 percent rise from the same period in 2019.

Nassau Paradise Island remained the primary driver of this growth. Total arrivals climbed from 1.8 million in 2024 to 2.05 million this year, a ten percent increase. Compared to 2019, the number is up 26.4 percent. Air arrivals to the destination reached just under 493,000 between January and April, slightly down from 500,000 the previous year. Mr Cooper attributed the dip to room capacity constraints.

In the Family Islands, Abaco recorded a seven percent increase in arrivals, with air travel up nearly 14 percent. Bimini saw total arrivals surge by 29.7 percent, though air arrivals dipped 11.5 percent due to airport construction and other ongoing projects. 

Eleuthera posted one of the strongest performances, with a 55.7 percent increase over 2024 and nearly 60 percent over 2019, though accommodation capacity remains a limiting factor. Exuma, which reached its tourism peak in 2024, experienced a ten percent drop in early 2025. Mr Cooper said the dip is tied to the ongoing transformation of Sandals into a Beaches resort, which is expected to accommodate more guests once completed and further boost the island’s economy.

San Salvador recorded a 4.2 percent increase in arrivals year-over-year.

Despite emerging challenges, Mr Cooper said the ministry is focused on maintaining momentum through strategic marketing and expanded infrastructure.