By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian businessmen are arguing this nation has “more room for growth” after hailing the economy’s “fantastic” 3.4 percent output expansion in 2024 - a figure significantly higher than the IMF’s 2 percent estimate.

Robert Myers, the Windsor Lakes developer, and Peter Goudie, the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers’ Confederation’s (BCCEC) labour division head, both told Tribune Business that the advance gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures make “it more urgent” to upgrade the Bahamian workforce’s skills and those of new labour force entrants.

They spoke out after the Bahamas National Statistical Institute (BNSI) unveiled data showing the Bahamian economy grew by 3.4 percent in real terms during 2024. That estimate, which strips out the impact of inflation on the data, was some 1.4 percentage points higher than the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate for last year.

The Institute’s figures, if accurate, would place Bahamian economic output last year some $195.44m, or almost $200m, higher than that projected by the IMF. The former’s data shows that the Bahamian economy, following its post-COVID reflation and recovery, expanded by 38.9 percent in four years or almost $4bn, growing from $10.158bn at the pandemic’s peak to $14.108bn in 2024.

Mr Myers and Mr Goudie, though, argued that further reforms are needed for the Bahamian economy to maintain a consistent annual growth rate of between 3-4 percent. That is the range previously cited by the IMF if The Bahamas is to both fully absorb every summer’s 5,000 high school leavers into its workforce and slash the existing 8-9 percent unemployment rate in half.

“There’s still a lot more GDP; there’s more room for growth,” Mr Myers told this newspaper. He argued that this could be achieved by speeding up, and making more efficient and transparent, approval processes within both the Government and private sector, as well as ensuring that Bahamian companies get the skilled staff they require through local training first and, if not, then a more flexible and liberalised Immigration policy.

“There’s a lag in the public sector,” the former Chamber chair added. “The whole process - Investments Board, Department of Environmental Planning and Protection, Ministry of Works, Town Planning, Health, Central Bank - all of it takes too long.

“There’s a lot more room for growth if we can get some efficiency in these areas, and if we can improve and reduce deficiencies in the public sector in getting permits and approvals, and getting these projects moving. I’m being told by countless developers it’s all very slow. If we have those projects moving, crikey, I think unemployment will be down to 3-4 percent.”

Unemployment is currently hovering between 8-9 percent, but Mr Myers conceded that delays and bureaucracy do not solely exist in the public sector. “It’s not just the Government; it’s the banks,” he told Tribune Business. “Just getting a bank account open in this country is like pulling teeth.

“The nonsense we have to go through as Bahamians. The pain and nonsense you have to go through to get a credit card, a bank account, it’s painful. We have to be able to streamline our systems. I’m not just blaming the public sector; it’s the private sector, too.”

Asserting that The Bahamas has “still got a long way to go” despite the improved GDP growth numbers, Mr Myers added that with the official unemployment rate down in the high single digits “anybody, in my opinion, who wants a job has a job. Anybody who is employable has a job. But we still need more people. We have a tremendous job finding qualified people.

“I think that GDP growth can continue to grow as long as we can continue to get more people either through the education side or bringing them in through education,” he added. “To me, the GDP numbers are great, fantastic news. We’re headed in the right direction.

“Now focus on career development, bringing skilled people in. If we cannot find them, liberalise Immigration policies and bring skilled people in to drive that growth. These are all big achievements, but that is the right thinking. It’s a lot easier to say than do; I get that. I’m not saying that’s not a difficult task for any administration or government.

“But if we can start to do that it will put The Bahamas in a very good position for socio-economic progress,” Mr Myers continued. “It’s absolutely a step in the right direction. Give the private sector the opportunity to create jobs. Make it easy. The ease and cost of doing business; make it easier and less to drive that growth. Don’t kill us with the high cost of doing business and arduous, lengthy processes.”

Mr Goudie, meanwhile, described the Institute’s GDP figures as “perfect” and “so amazing”. While not wishing to cast doubt on the GDP numbers, he said: “I just find that number amazing. I’m not saying it’s not true, don’t get me wrong. That’s incredible, but it’s great.”

A private sector representative on the National Tripartite Council, which deals with all labour-related matters in The Bahamas, and a key advocate for the National Apprenticeship Programme that is soon to launch once funding is received from the Government, Mr Goudie argued that the latter is essential to providing the skilled workforce needed to maintain economic growth at 3.4 percent per annum.

“We need people with skills,” he said. “The way to give them skills is through apprenticeship programmes because a lot of them are not getting that at school. If we’re growing we need to produce skilled people. It makes sense now. It’s more urgent right now. If we’re growing at 3.4 percent we need skilled people.

“The fact the Apprenticeship Programme is supposed to take off this year, then we’re doing the right thing. That’s what the National Tripartite Council is all about’ creating employment and creating people with skills. We’re on the right track, the country is on the right track, growth is up.”

The Institute, in unveiling the advance GDP growth estimates for 2024, said: “According to the 2024 annual estimates, economic activity in the Bahamas increased by 3.7 percent in nominal terms and by 3.4 percent in real terms when compared to 2023.

“This real growth was evident in a number of industries, led by wholesale and retail trade, motor vehicle repair and the construction industries, which were responsible for the lion’s share. In 2024, the value added created through the production of goods and services in the Bahamian economy was estimated at $15.8bn in nominal prices and $14.1bn in real prices.”

Explaining how the GDP estimates were derived, the Institute added: “The production approach to GDP, which is derived from the gross value added (GVA) by industry, showed an increase in real growth across most industries. The industries indicating the most substantial increases in 2024 were the following.

“Wholesale, retail trade and motor vehicle repairs increased by $206 (15 percent). This increase is mainly connected to the growth in household consumption. Construction increased by $146m (19 percent). This industry increased as capital investment within the country continued to grow as evidenced by a rise in the imports of construction materials.

“Information and communications increased by $97m (21 percent), as implementation and increased use of digital technology expanded in the Bahamian economy. Electricity and gas, water supply and sewerage increased approximately $64m (18 percent) when compared to 2023. This real growth can be mainly attributed to lower fuel costs in 2024.”

The Institute added that the expenditure approach to GDP, which bases its calculation in final consumption, investments, exports and imports, “indicated a real growth in a number of sectors in 2024. Gross fixed capital formation showed an increase in 2024 compared to 2023 of 21 percent.

“This was led by the building and infrastructure sector, with an increase of $341m (16 percent), followed by machinery and transportation equipment, which grew by approximately $291m (38 percent). Household final consumption expenditure experienced real growth in 2024 of almost $252m (3 percent) when compared to 2023.

“Exports of goods and services increased by $287m (6 percent) in 2024 compared to 2023. This sector includes the contribution to the economy by tourists, which includes both stopover and cruise visitors’ spending and represents the majority of this component.”