By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Super Value’s owner yesterday said it has suffered just one price hike from the US-China trade war with local businesses warning there is no room to relax despite the rivals’ 90-day tariff ‘pause’.

Rupert Roberts told Tribune Business that soap has so far been the only product hit by Donald Trump’s imposition of 145 percent tariffs on all imports from China with the 13-store supermarket chain’s suppliers “strangely quiet” on the fall-out and prospect of any further price increases.

“We’ve only had one price increase through the US pertaining to China. That’s soap,” he told this newspaper. “Everything else we bring in directly from China. We don’t go through the US. The US tariffs on China are not affecting us. We bring in container loads, and buy and bring it direct from China, not through the US.

“The pallet loads, products where we cannot bring in container loads in from China, they are likely to be affected by the US-China tariffs. Strangely, all suppliers are quiet and not talking about price increases. I suppose they’re sitting and hoping like we are that it’s not going to happen or nothing too big to affect the cost of living or increasing it. It’s normal; nothing to report. We’re just hoping for the best.”

The US and China earlier this week agreed to a 90-day ‘pause’ in their trade and tit-for-tat tariff battle for global economic supremacy. Under the agreement, US tariffs, which as a border tax on Chinese goods, will be lowered from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China’s retaliatory tariffs on US imports will be lowered from 125 percent to 10 percent for the next three months until early August 2025.

There had been fears that The Bahamas, as a highly vulnerable, small, open and import-dependent economy, would suffer a significant inflation and cost of living increase as a result of Mr Trumps tariff policy and the Chinese retaliation given its reliance on other countries for virtually all it consumes. Tourism demand for The Bahamas was also expected to be impacted by the uncertainty and loss of consumer confidence.

Mr Roberts, though, yesterday voiced “very, very” strong optimism that the US-China 90-day ‘pause’ will lead to a wider trade agreement between the two rivals that enables The Bahamas and other countries to escape the predicted fall-out from any tariff battle between the two.

“Anything could happen, but I’m hopeful,” he said. “Canada will probably reach an agreement with the US, and it looks like China will, so I’m hopeful everything will settle down. The stock market is settling down and moving ahead. That’s a good indicator that investors feel everything is back to normal.”

However, other businessmen warned that The Bahamas cannot afford to let its guard down as there is no certainty yet as to what will happen beyond the US-China 90-day pause. The Bahamas imports significant quantities of Chinese-made goods, and a sizeable portion of this supply transits through the US before reaching this nation, thus exposing it to whatever the final Trump tariffs are.

Sir Franklyn Wilson, the Arawak Homes and Sunshine Holdings chairman, told Tribune Business it is simply “too early to tell” what the final outcome of the tariff chaos and turmoil will be. “The US position is so volatile, and changes so fast, I don’t know if it would be prudent to make long-term decisions in this environment,” he said.

“Let’s hope and pray that negotiations may lead to a reduction, but you cannot make a meaningful decision on something that may change in 90 days. I don’t know of very many business people that make long-term decisions on the basis of a 90-day cycle. I cannot see anything strategic changing based on the 90-day arrangement. Just hope that calmer heads prevail and something comes up.”

Mark A Turnquest, president of the fledgling 242 Small Business Association and Resource Centre, as well as a consultant to many companies of that size, said that while the US-China 90-day ‘pause’ was “great news” for many of his members and clients, the ultimate outcome “is like elections; it’s too early to tell”.

Confirming that Bahamian small businesses have been “gloomy” about their 2025 prospects ever since Mr Trump launched his tariff war, he added: “It’s unbelievable how he [the US president] changes his strategy day-by-day. The projections, last time you and I spoke, for the year were bleak - summer back-to-school, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas. It was bleak.

“They were exhausted from the chaotic behaviour of Trump. They were exhausted. They didn’t know what to order, how much to order, how to order and most definitely where to order. Having a 90-day pause is nothing tremendous. What happens after 90 days?”

Mr Turnquest’s client base includes numerous electronic and clothing retailers, and the former import most of their inventory from China via the US, thus exposing them to the latter’s tariffs.

Bahamian clothing retailers also rely on shipping via the US, and Mr Turnquest said all were “still going to feel the blow” of the initial US tariffs on shipments initiated before this week’s easing. “I can tell you one thing: If it was still 145 percent, my clients would be in huge trouble,” he added.

“The increase was inevitable, and they were going to have to downsize to a certain extent to keep themselves above water. No amount of marketing, no amount of hirings. They were going to sit this year out for non-performance. If they cannot find economical pricing, it doesn’t make sense” as retail stores have brand names to protect.

Mr Turnquest said the turmoil created by the Trump tariffs has undermined his clients and members’ expansion plans to open new stores on islands such as Grand Bahama, Exuma and Eleuthera. And it has also impacted their ability to plan and obtain financing for doing so.

“A lot of our customers, and one or two members, have good relationships with the banks and sometimes they can say they anticipate needing a certain amount of capital at a certain time,” he explained. “They can make the request to the bank that they need to increase their overdraft facility to accommodate increasing sales.

“They can say they expect to make ‘x’ sales so they are going to rewrite their business plans to accommodate this increase. They have to put plans in place to request money for additional funding to increase inventory or increase capital development in their business”, and it is impossible to plan because of the Trump tariff uncertainty.

Senator Barry Griffin, the Bahamas Trade Commission’s chairman, told Tribune Business: “While the recent tariff de-escalation between the US and China is a welcome signal for global trade stability, The Bahamas must remain focused on its long-term goal of reducing over-reliance on any single market.

“Trade diversification is not a reaction to global shifts but, rather, a core pillar of our economic resilience strategy. I would like to highlight that our trade diversification strategy was established well before the recent trade and tariff stand-off. We believe this policy goes to the core of developing a more fair, more competitive and more affordable Bahamian economy.”

Mr Griffon said the Bahamas Trade Commission, working with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and other agencies, is seeking to expand market access for Bahamian companies by “engaging with CARICOM, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Latin American partners to explore new trade arrangements and cooperative frameworks”.

“A series of capacity-building programmes and export readiness workshops are being rolled out for Bahamian SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) to help them scale up for international markets,” he added. “We are supporting local innovation and value-added production, particularly in areas such as agro-processing and creative industries, to ensure our export base is both broad and competitive.

“These efforts are ongoing, and while results will unfold over time, we expect to see measurable progress in phases. We expect to see positive results from our trade diversification initiatives within the next few months, and expect to see greater progress with some of our longer term initiatives within the next six to 12 months - particularly in the number of export-ready businesses and bilateral engagements.”