Yes, I Concur Special Election (SE) result not referendum on RedShirt's leadership....that started long before (SE) got called. **Not winning (SE)** will ignite the spark that wants to move on without a Michael Pintard.'.

…yes, just another example of a wandering soul, the poet who fancied himself a leader, the writer who imagined he could command a crowd, yet never mastered the weight of his own shadow. He dreamed of thrones but tripped over truths, rehearsed greatness but could never live it. A legend in his diary… and nowhere else.

@IslandW, Too much explaining can sometimes be an indicator of "nervous" insecurity, particularly if the timing may negatively affects how constituents' yet to vote in a Special Election.

Why move on right before a general election? Ingraham had his chances, Minnis had his chances, and it's only fair Pintard has his chance. He gets blown out fine move on and replace him as leader but it makes zero sense for the FNM to make any big changes in leadership at the moment. Besides its not like the FNM is filled to the brim with viable replacements anyways.

> no governing party has ever lost a by-election

This is inaccurate, the FNM lost the 2010 Elizabeth by-election albeit it was by a razor thin contested margin with a PLP incumbent.

Honestly I think people trying to box this by-election into the historical pattern are failing to account for the fact that Bahamian elections are fundamentally different now.

1.) Coalition is sticking around and it's up in the air who they are going to pull more votes from. The 3rd party dynamic is going to be a lasting (and growing) factor going forward in Bahamian elections as long as the two main parties continue to promote lacklustre candidates and leadership.

2.) Last general election had the lowest turnout ever and I doubt it will improve much if at all in the next one. Voter apathy is very high and no telling which of the main parties is more politically apathetic at this point.

Besides the seat is a swing seat and the incumbent representation was lacklustre. I would not be surprised if the FNM wins at and neither would I be surprised if the PLP wins it. Tbh I wouldn't really be surprised if Coalition wins it either. Things are just different now and the old 2 party high turnout calculus isn't going to apply going forward. Honestly there are some parallels with the 2010 Elizabeth by-election and we all saw how that one turned out. Wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of that.

1) Coalition will pull more votes from the FNM. I don't even think that is debatable. Voters will not reject an incumbent government in favour of a coalition. Comparatively, the PLP's announced candidates are vastly superior to the FNM's. Again, I am not sure that this is debatable. And to connect to your first point, the Coalition has not produced - to date - a single viable candidate. So, stuck with the choice of a coalition, PLP or FNM "lacklustre" (your words) candidate, I don't see voters electing the coalition.
2) Last election was contested during a period that the known world had never in history experienced. And, FNM voters were fed up with Minnis. Different circumstances this time. Voter turnout will be comparable to non-Covid elections.
3) Coalition has no chance of winning the Golden Isles by-election. None. Interesting that your substantive argument appears to be that "things are different now", but then you conclude by comparing this by-election to one that occurred over 15 years ago! Not saying that you are wrong, just that your premise did not match your conclusion.

I'm sorry for the delayed response, have been very busy lately.

That said to address your points:

1.) I think it's very premature to be certain about who Coalition will pull more from considering that they haven't run under a PLP incumbent government in a general yet. The Coalitions base so far does seem to pull from the dejected Minnis independents that voted FNM in 2017 (90k votes in 2017 is way higher than average for the FNM that grossed in the 60ks in both 07 and 12) but functionally they also exist as a protest party as well and we haven't had a chance to evaluate how many people they can pull from dissatisfied PLP voters to establish a real floor for what they can expect to achieve electorally every year. Not necessarily disagreeing with you just saying it's too early to be certain.

2.) Regarding candidate quality I can concede that the PLP might have some marginally better names but be real for a second (I know you are a loyal PLP), Miller should not have even be given the PLP standard and other candidates like Kirk (yes he was cleared by the court and I don't hold that against him but the whole PM of Abaco thing was just incredibly horrible optics while all that was going on) have just proven to have not worked out. The PLP candidate selection is just as flawed as the FNMs. Regarding the Coalition I think you are being too dismissive. Operating as a serious third party in this countries political scene is hell and you're not going to be able to pull big names easily because third parties usually do not have the funding and political background to succeed. Despite this both Lincoln and Cay managed to pull over 20% in their seats, and others had respectable results as well. The playing field and recruitment opportunities between the big 2 and third parties is not even at all and will not be until we dump FPTP in favour of a more representative system but that is a conversation too politically mature for the vast majority of Bahamians involved in politics.

3.) I agree the last election was very much different than any other but honestly I don't see where the FNM is going to drive much higher turnout and the PLP had a low turnout as well (falling short of their gross 2012 totals) and will only lose votes by nature of being incumbent. That said that's not what I'm mainly referring to by things being different. Truth is outside of brief exceptions like the DNA and the BDP third parties have not really been a serious thing in our politics. At this time I believe Coalition is going to stick around for the foreseeable future because Lincoln is a lot smarter than people give him credit for and has managed to carve out a political niche for himself focusing on topics like immigration and sovereign wealth funds that Bahamian establishment politicians are unable or unwilling to adequately address. What is mainly holding him back is the FPTP system that is not representative. Rome wasn't built in a day, parties like the AfD and Reform are rising to political prominence from the fringes (Reform is really a child of UKIP to an extent) and the younger generations don't have any allegiance to the PLP FNM system like the older ones did. Eventually a third party will lead because people are politically dissatisfied and looking for other opportunities. It's only a matter of when.

4.) The Elizabeth by election was an anomaly itself because of the third party factor that decisively affected the result. Look Bahamian politics is usually somewhat predictable (like we all know certain seats are loyal PLP or FNM - S Abaco for instance never voted for the PLP prior to 21), it's just a matter of the swing seats in Nassau and a few of the FI ones deciding who wins. Introducing a consistent established third party into the calculus completely blows this out of the water. A lot of things are now up in the air and even seats that were safe may now be in reach for the other party (the DNA cost Ingraham a few in 2012 and Coalition cost the FNM a few in 21). As long as there is a third party draining 5-20% of the vote away from establishment candidates its going to be much harder to make accurate predictions going forward.

Honestly I'll be truthful and say I'm not a fan of the PLP but I do enjoy this discussion despite the partisan difference because there is such a vacuum of high quality political analysis in this country. It's refreshing to be able to actually discuss these things with someone who understands politics beyond the very basics.