By Neil Hartnell

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian auto dealers yesterday warned the Government against “pushing an agenda” that disrupts the industry as they argued that achieving 50 percent electric vehicle by 2025 “just isn’t feasible for us as a country”.

Ben Albury, the Bahamas Motor Dealers Association’s (BMDA) president, predicted to Tribune Business that new electric vehicle sales will “settle a lot different from what they are aiming for” after the Government pledged to the world in its latest commitments to the climate change fight that they will seize half the market.

Combined with hybrid vehicles, which the Government promised will account for 30 percent of all new auto sales in ten years’ time, they and electric vehicles are to account for 80 percent market share or four out of every five deals, but the BMDA chief pointed out that none of the previous forecasts on their uptake “have aligned with reality”.

He was backed by his namesake, Fred Albury, the Auto Mall principal, who told this newspaper that the Government must “allow the market to set the pace” on electric vehicle sales and not interfere with the industry’s workings as this would undermine employment and individual dealerships.

He argued that the amount of carbon emissions created to extract lithium and other minerals used in electric vehicle batteries is “excessive”, and suggested the promotion of such autos as environmentally-friendly is acting as a “smokescreen” for this.

“I think these sorts of goals have been set before,” Ben Albury said of the Government’s latest ambitions to curb greenhouse gas and carbon emissions from The Bahamas. “At the end of the day, the way the market is going to settle, there’s going to be room for gasoline vehicles, there’s going to be room for electric vehicles, there’s going to be room for hybrids, and there’s going to be room for diesel.

“Unless there’s going to be some immediate infrastructure changes here that are implemented in a short period of time, that ‘10 years from now’ goal, I don’t think that is sustainable. It’s good that they have these targets, but they are seldom reached, and it’s extremely ambitious to achieve that.”

The Bahamas Bus and Truck general manager said his “infrastructure” comments did not relate solely to the need for electric vehicle charging stations, and the present condition of the Bahamas Power & Light (BPL) grid and whether it can accommodate the extra demand, but also whether electric vehicles are both feasible and suitable for the Family Islands.

“Can you imagine having electric vehicles in Cat Island, electric vehicles in Inagua, some of these places?” he asked. “I just don’t think it’s feasible for us as a country to think we will be able to go to that degree in that length of time. It’s good to have ambition, good to have some sort of target, but I don’t think it is going to settle where their targets are.

“We have people who want electric vehicles, people who want hybrids, people who want diesel. We have other alternative energy sources and are looking at hydrogen. I don’t think there’s a cookie cutter solution. If you look at electric vehicle sales from where they were ten years ago to where they are now, none of the predictions have aligned with reality.

“Electric vehicle sales in the US and worldwide, it’s kind of soft. It’s not in the realm of what they originally projected some time ago,” Ben Albury added. “I think projections are there to set some sort of target, some sort of goal posts but, at the end of the day, they are going to settle a lot differently from what they are aiming for.

“These technologies are getting better and better, but they are not accelerating at a rate to sustain that type of growth; not at this stage.” The Government is aiming for electric vehicles to account for 30 percent of new auto sales by 2030, but even that target is likely to be missed with Pia Farmer, Easy Car Sales’ principal, admitting these models only currently have 12-15 percent of the Bahamian market.

Fred Albury, meanwhile, echoed the BMDA president’s concerns about lack of electric vehicle charging infrastructure and their adaptability to Family Island conditions, arguing that the “environment is not conducive on some of these islands”.

He told Tribune Business: “The technology is changing so quickly, and 2035 is ten years away, and so much can happen between now and then… My biggest concern is disposing of these electric vehicle batteries. I know Toyota is working on its solid stable battery that will have faster charging and longer range.

“I say this. A fully electric vehicle is a smokescreen if you’re targeting carbon neutrality, because the carbon footprint to extract the minerals from the ground to make these batteries is excessive. Toyota has done a study, and the amount of lithium that goes into one battery makes 18 plug-ins for hybrids or 32-38 plug-in batteries” for regular vehicles.

“I think they [the Government] should allow the market to set the pace and not push an agenda because you are going to impact employment at car dealerships,” Fred Albury warned, adding that the Government needed to develop a regulatory regime to deal with the potential environmental harm caused by the disposal of electric vehicle batteries.

Noting that auto manufacturers are developing hydrogen-powered vehicles and hydrogen hybrids, he added: “There’s a lot of pros and negatives to the scenario out there. I’m keeping an open mind. The auto industry is changing a lot. The Chinese have come in fast and furious. Can they keep their prices up?

“They are trying to buy their way into the market, and early prices will escalate as well. We have some good brands, and we’ve been here for a long time. I don’t want to go anywhere. I’ll be right here taking care of my customers.”

The Bahamas, in its just-released third nationally determined contribution (NDC) setting out this country’s commitments to fighting global climate change, said: “The Bahamas continues to advance its transition toward a low-carbon and climate-resilient future through strengthened national policies, institutional reform and renewed ambition.

“Considerable progress has been made toward achieving its overarching 2030 reduction goals and contributing to the global carbon neutrality objective by 2050. Building on the progress communicated in its second NDC, The Bahamas’ third NDC demonstrates enhanced ambition through these new targets for 2035.”

These goals are described as “having at least 45 percent of renewables in the national energy mix by 2035, building on the previous 30 percent by 2030 target outlined in the [second] updated NDC”.

They also involve “reducing national greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent relative to 2010 greenhouse gas emissions, revised from the business-as-usual (BaU) and 2010 levels referenced in the previous NDC”.