By MALCOLM STRACHAN

When I sat down to write last week, news had only just come through about the passing of Vaughn Miller. People were in shock, and in mourning. Since then, copious tributes have been paid to the Minister of Environment and Natural Resources – and of course questions have turned to what comes next.

A vacancy in the House of Assembly must be filled, that is the law, but with the prospect of a general election not too far distant, FNM leader Michael Pintard chanced a gambit to encourage Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis to skip a by-election and go straight to a general election.

Back in June, the FNM seemed to be operating under the belief that a general election was close, and might even have been held in September, the month just passed. That came and went, but it was a strong feeling in the FNM that the PLP would go early, no matter what the likes of PLP chairman Fred Mitchell said, insisting the party would go to a full term, while Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper speculated that the FNM seemed “eager for a beatdown”.

At the time, Mr Davis said the date of an election was “here in my heart”.

In electoral terms, there is merit for the PLP in keeping the Opposition guessing over when the election might be.

There are a lot of things that an incumbent government cannot help when it comes to an election – but timing is certainly one of them. Global issues can affect your economy, natural disasters can come at any time, and there are perpetual problems such as crime, immigration and so on that are factors at the polls. But if you’re in office and you know that you have, for example, a pay rise for public servants kicking in at Christmas, you want to make sure you send people to the polls in good spirits rather than still waiting for the money to arrive.

Under the Constitution of The Bahamas, paragraph 67 (3) says that when a seat is vacated for any reason other than a dissolution of Parliament, the Governor General shall issue a writ for the election of a member to fill the vacancy and such election shall be held within 60 days after the occurrence of the vacancy. Mr Davis confirmed to reporters last week that as far as he is concerned the law requires him to hold a by-election within 60 days.

So put to bed the notions of a full general election, it would seem. And that makes sense. Unless you’re ready to go already, why would you rush to the people’s judgement?

That puts this prospective by-election in an interesting position indeed – will it be a sign of the general election to come? Or will it be the election of a lame duck, who will only be in the post for likely a few months before they have to run again?

Back when the vacancy occurred in West End and Bimini after the death of Obie Wilchcombe, former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham reportedly advised Mr Pintard not to contest the seat. Mr Ingraham back then supposedly said that by-elections favour the PLP, and the party would be better off focusing on the next general election. The party ran anyway, and lost.

The past week has also seen the reappearance of the DNA – remember them? Well, we ought to remember them because there was a run of news last week too suggesting that former Prime Minister Dr Hubert Minnis might end up as the party’s leader, with former DNA leader Branville McCartney as his deputy. McCartney distanced himself from such speculation, but Dr Minnis kept the ball up in the air, declining to deny the rumour when given the chance. Is he really considering it? Or is he just having fun with keeping the FNM on its toes, wondering what he will do?

Running in any election isn’t cheap and there will be questions in each party – PLP, FNM, DNA, the Coalition of Independents, the Bahamas Constitution Party and whoever else shows up – over how much it is worth committing in resources to a seat that any winner will only hold for a brief time.

There is a case to be made for saving those resources and skipping the race until the general election.

But there is also a case for making a statement about what the level of support for your party is to signal to your voters that you are worth a gamble in the full vote.

If the PLP has a strong showing in the seat, it might bolster confidence in re-election. Equally, for the FNM, if they win the seat, especially if it is by a big number, it will encourage people to think that a new FNM administration is on the way. Indeed, it might make the PLP rethink when it plans to hold a general election and hold on as long as possible.

As for the DNA, what better way to remind people you are here than to run and see what you can get? The COI? I’d be surprised if leader Lincoln Bain missed a chance to make some noise.

For the PLP and the FNM, a by-election will be high stakes. They can’t afford to do anything other than go all in. For the others, the stakes are lower, but I’d still expect them to play their hand and see how it goes.

Minnis, at least, unless he reveals some new party plan, is unlikely to be a factor – he is focused on Killarney.

I am sure we will hear soon about the decision on a by-election – and that in turn will doubtless trigger each party to announce its plans.

My bet is they will all be in the race – and the outcome will be very telling indeed. Whoever wins may have a short tenure indeed, but their election could have an impact far beyond the length of their time in post during this Parliament