By KEILE CAMPBELL

Tribune Staff Reporter

kcampbell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamians have been told to have more children.

The country’s low birth rate threatens the long-term survival of the National Insurance Board, says Myles Laroda, the Minister of Social Services, Information and Broadcasting, who warns that too few workers are contributing to sustain future pensioners.

“We have a declining birth rate,” Mr Laroda said yesterday. “If you take immigration out of it, The Bahamas is far below. I think we’re talking about two plus percent growth. We are at 1.7.”

He said NIB’s sustainability depends on the number of contributors supporting each pensioner, describing six workers per retiree as “a healthy number.” When that ratio slips closer to three, he said, “that’s where issues begin to arise.”

“As it relates to the National Insurance Fund being sustainable, one of the variables is the amount of people who are paying into that fund per pensioner,” he said.

“So, for the fund to be able to continue for generations to come, we need more people coming in, and that’s only going to come from people who are having kids,” he added. “And so, you know, the word out from certain sectors to Bahamian citizens is: have more kids.”

Mr Laroda made the comments during the opening of a four-day workshop on sexual and reproductive health and gender-based violence, hosted in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund. He said discussions on reproductive health must also account for economic realities, as declining fertility rates mean fewer contributors to the National Insurance Fund even as the number of pensioners grows.

His remarks reflect longstanding concern about the future of NIB, with successive actuarial reports warning that the fund is unsustainable without reform. The latest review projects that NIB’s reserves could be depleted by 2028 if contribution rates and benefits remain unchanged.

In July 2024, the government implemented the first of several planned contribution increases, raising the rate from 9.8 percent to 10.3 percent. Actuaries have advised that further increases — potentially up to 16.9 percent by the end of the decade — will be needed to stabilise the fund.

Mr Laroda noted that while the number of pensioners has more than tripled since 1984 — from about 13,000 to 44,000 — the base income for contributions has only doubled, widening the gap in sustainability.

He cautioned that if current trends continue, policymakers may eventually have to raise contribution rates further or reduce benefits.

Experts have warned that declining fertility is at the core of the issue. The Bahamas’ fertility rate of about 1.7 children per woman is below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, meaning fewer young people are entering the workforce to support an ageing society.

Mr Laroda said population growth and reproductive health are not isolated issues but central to the country’s economic stability and long-term development.