By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Higher-spending stopover tourism arrivals declined by 1.3 percent during the 2025 first-half as The Bahamas’ most important industry generated “healthy but moderated activity”, it was asserted yesterday.

The Central Bank, unveiling its report on July’s economic developments, again blamed the modest slowdown in land-based visitors on “constrained capacity” meaning a lack of hotel and other room inventory able to accommodate visitor demand for the destination;

But, while the likes of Atlantis’ Beach Towers complex remains closed, and Baha Mar continues to work on developing a replacement for the long-demolished Melia property, others have suggested that demand - rather than supply-side factors - are responsible for the year-over-year drop-off in stopover visitors such as increased competition from the more competitively priced cruise lines.

“Stopover tourism, connected partly to the performance of the US-sourced market, is anticipated to record subdued gains. However, sustained robust growth is projected for the cruise segment - albeit a less dominant weight in earnings estimates,” the Central Bank acknowledged.

Dr Duane Sands, the Free National Movement’s (FNM) chairman, told Tribune Business of the stopover tourist decline: “They [the Government] can pretty it up all they want. The country’s finances continue to deteriorate, bills are not being paid and the valuable segment of stopover visitors is decreasing year-over-year.

“Clearly that’s not being mitigated by whatever increase there is in cruise visitors, and we don’t want to revisit that story because we know all the details, yet they continue to paint a rosy picture.” However, the 1.3 percent decline in stopover visitors for the 2025 first half to one million translates into a relatively modest drop of around 13,000 persons.

“Preliminary indications are that the domestic economy’s tempered pace of growth persisted during July, converging closer to its expected medium-term potential. Tourism registered healthy but moderated activity as the high value-added stopover segment remained capacity constrained, although the cruise sector continued to record robust growth,” the Central Bank said.

“Monthly data suggests that, during the review period, tourism sector earnings growth tapered, reflective of the constrained activity in the stopover segment. However, the cruise category remained buoyant and continued to attract significant foreign investments in the development of onshore private destinations.

“Official data from the Ministry of Tourism indicated that total arrivals grew by 10.7 percent to one million visitors in June 2025 relative to the comparative period in 2024. Underlying this development, sea arrivals rose by 13.8 percent to 0.9m. However, air arrivals declined by 3.1 percent to 200,000.” The June monthly decline was three times’ that for the six-month period.

“An analysis by major ports of entry showed that total visitors to New Providence increased by 18.7 percent to 500,000 compared to the same period last year,” the Central Bank said of June. “Specifically, sea passengers advanced by 28 percent to 400,000, outstripping the 3.3 percent fall-off in air passengers to 100,000.

“Further, overall visitors to the Family Islands rose by 7.2 percent to 500,000 relative to the previous year. This included an 8.4 percent rise in sea traffic to 400,000, which overshadowed the 6 percent reduction in air arrivals to 35,815. Conversely, arrivals to Grand Bahama contracted by 31.1 percent to 30,257, explained by a 37.8 percent decline in sea traffic to 24,441, eclisping the 25.7 percent growth in air arrivals to 5,816.”

Turning to the 2025 first half, the Central Bank said: “On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals expanded by 10.6 percent to 6.3m visitors vis-à-vis the same period in 2024. Contributing, sea passengers grew by 13.1 percent to 5.4m. In contrast, air arrivals declined by 1.3 percent to one million.

“Data from the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) revealed that total departures - net of domestic passengers - fell by 2.6 percent to 168,788 in July compared to the same period last year,” it added of Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA).

“Notably, US departures reduced by 4.4 percent to 149,988. Providing some offset, non-US departures expanded by 14.7 percent to 18,800. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic decreased by 2.4 percent to one million. Underlying this development, US departures declined by 3.2 percent to 900,000, which outweighed the 3.1 percent growth in non-US international departures to 100,000.

“In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA showed that in July total room nights sold rose by 3.1 percent to 79,615, compared to the previous year. However, due to expanded inventory, the occupancy rate for entire place listings fell to 52.5 percent from 55 percent last year.

“In addition, the occupancy rate for hotel comparable listings reduced to 45.6 percent in 2025 from 49.8 percent in 2024. The ADR (average daily room rate) for entire place listings rose by 12.9 percent to $592.40 relative to the comparative 2024 period, and by 4.7 percent to $186.92 for hotel comparable listings.”